ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4041 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:25 pm

Interestingly over the last several runs the Canadian model has had the smallest variation.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4042 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:26 pm

After landfall the icon is still moving much faster than the 12z, it'll be out in the Gulf by Naples @99 hours, at the same time on the 12z it was still hanging just inland on the east coast.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4043 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:28 pm

ICON brings the center offshore into GOM...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4044 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:29 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4045 Postby pcolaman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:31 pm

supercane4867 wrote:ICON brings the center offshore into GOM...


Saw that , here we go with the wind shields again. :double:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4046 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:32 pm

BobHarlem wrote:After landfall the icon is still moving much faster than the 12z, it'll be out in the Gulf by Naples @99 hours, at the same time on the 12z it was still hanging just inland on the east coast.

the ICON has the same idea with a turn but due to its speed it makes it all the way across before turning....its not a crazy idea and its been consistent with this idea albeit it's now farther north
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4047 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:32 pm

Back from errands. Looks like NHC went with east shift at 5pm in which most of the major models are depicting.
I'm hoping that it will move OTS and not bother anyone.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4048 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:33 pm

The low to the west and the forward speed of Dorian as it approaches Florida is everything with this model set, and will probably be the reason for the windshield wiper stuff that is bound to happen over the next day or two.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4049 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:34 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Back from errands. Looks like NHC went with east shift at 5pm in which most of the major models are depicting.
I'm hoping that it will move OTS and not bother anyone.

The Bahamas are going to be hammered.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4050 Postby MacTavish » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:34 pm

Hammy wrote:Interestingly over the last several runs the Canadian model has had the smallest variation.


Cmc has been conistent. Gfs legacy has shown a track similar to the current NHC track since 06Z Wednesday
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4051 Postby kevin » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:35 pm

While I haven't posted a lot, I've been following the forum for quite a while now and I honestly can't recall another storm with so much model uncertainty. I guess we'll just have to wait for the other 18z runs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4052 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Wow, how much fun are the next 24 hours of model runs... Got my alarm set for 1:45 am Euro... :D



LAME sleeping is not allowed....



I'm not what I use to be, 2004 it was all nighter... :lol:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4053 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:38 pm

I do fear that this will be slightly westward version of Matthew where it's barely inland and goes up the entire eastern peninsula up to the Carolinas and very slowly too.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4054 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:38 pm

Image
18z ICON... Likes Miami...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4055 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:39 pm

18z GFS initialized:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4056 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:40 pm

18z GFS hours 0-24:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4057 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:41 pm

Early GFS coming in, looks a bit faster but not much change north or south. Trending back west with the models now?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4058 Postby fci » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:41 pm

JPmia wrote:So what in the atmosphere or data has changed with the Euro to flip to the north like this? Was it new data being used for the model? This is quite the change.


Mike Watkins has a very good video explaining some of the reasons. the link was on a prior page in either this, or the Discussion thread; not too long ago
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4059 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:41 pm

Trend of the 4 most recent GFS runs:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4060 Postby fci » Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:43 pm

supercane4867 wrote:ICON brings the center offshore into GOM...


Wow, the most reliable models have pretty much completely backed away from this ever getting to the GOM.
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