ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4601 Postby storm4u » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:10 am

12z ICON on the coast of Florida HR 60
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4602 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:12 am

Stalling over the Gulf Stream battering SE Florida:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4603 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:12 am

I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and its reliability for track.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4604 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:14 am

GeneratorPower wrote:I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and its reliability for track.


They are separate models.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4605 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:14 am

GeneratorPower wrote:I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and it’s reliability for track.


They are not the same model. It's confusing, I know. The ICON being referenced here is a global model: https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

It is not the same as the ICON intensity consensus model.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4606 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:16 am

GeneratorPower wrote:I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and its reliability for track.


not the Intensity Consensus, it is the new German Model, totally different than the one that the NHC states in their discussions.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4607 Postby jfk08c » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:17 am

If this ICON run is any indicator of how the rest of today's runs will trend, things could get spicy real quick
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4608 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:17 am

gatorcane wrote:Wow ICON back to the SW turn now at 51 hours :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/YCrQRzwy/icon-mslp-pcpn-seus-17.png


Hopefully not a trend with the other models :eek:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4609 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:18 am

ICON 72 hours turns NNW with landfall Broward County / Ft Lauderdale it looks like:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4610 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:19 am

ICON has landfall in Broward.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4611 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:21 am

Image

12z ICON has direct landfall into SE Florida vs a brush/recurve for 06z...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4612 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:21 am

NHC recognizes the precarious situation with the stall and some ensemble members still pointing to Florida. Think they meant Euro and UKMET ensembles in the discussion.

Most of the global models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the
eastern United States beyond 2 days. This steering flow would
typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and
north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location
and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance
has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are
still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4613 Postby melhow » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:23 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and it’s reliability for track.


They are not the same model. It's confusing, I know. The ICON being referenced here is a global model: https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

It is not the same as the ICON intensity consensus model.


Do you know if this model ran with the additional recon data from the turnaround late plane run that other models (EURO, GFS) I heard missed loading before they ran the most current runs?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4614 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:25 am

Dorian will have to start moving on a 300 degree heading like right now for it to meet the forecasted point at 0z this evening by the 06z HWRF.
Dorian has been tracking on a 280 degree angle this morning over all.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4615 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:25 am

ICON has been the furtherest south of any model, but it has been very reluctant to buy this further north and OTS idea that the models have been suggesting.

Thus far, its been doing a better job than most models with the very short term track it has to be said, but long ways to go yet.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4616 Postby Michele B » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:27 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/9h6w2EZ.gif

12z ICON has direct landfall into SE Florida vs a brush/recurve for 06z...


I would like more info on this ICON model.....how long has it been around, and does it have a track record? Seems to be running almost antithetical to other models.

And I haven't seen a one of them yet that seems to really have a handle on things.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4617 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:28 am

NDG wrote:Dorian will have to start moving on a 300 degree heading like right now for it to meet the forecasted point at 0z this evening by the 06z HWRF.
Dorian has been tracking on a 280 degree angle this morning over all.


Yeah both HWRF and the GFS looked too far north earlier and so this is appearing to be.

I wonder whether the lack of data from the area where the upper ridge is, is really highlighting the overly progressive nature of the GFs/CMC suite in particular in the short term. I know ECM does turn it as well, but it is from a point further south.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4618 Postby kunosoura » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:31 am

Does anyone have any thoughts about the indicated pressure (991 mb) @ t=0 on this 12z ICON run and how that may be affecting things?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4619 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:32 am

gatorcane wrote:ICON 72 hours turns NNW with landfall Broward County / Ft Lauderdale it looks like:

Image
https://twitter.com/SheliNBC6/status/1167814125428387840
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4620 Postby dukeblue219 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:33 am

kunosoura wrote:Does anyone have any thoughts about the indicated pressure (991 mb) @ t=0 on this 12z ICON run and how that may be affecting things?


The globals usually don't have the exact characteristics of the storms core modelled. That's part of the reason we have "hurricane" models and mesoscale models.
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