ATL: DORIAN - Models

[storm4u]

12z ICON on the coast of Florida HR 60

[gatorcane]

Stalling over the Gulf Stream battering SE Florida:

[GeneratorPower]

I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and its reliability for track.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and its reliability for track.

They are separate models.

[SouthDadeFish]

I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and it’s reliability for track.

They are not the same model. It's confusing, I know. The ICON being referenced here is a global model: https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

It is not the same as the ICON intensity consensus model.

[Blinhart]

I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and its reliability for track.

not the Intensity Consensus, it is the new German Model, totally different than the one that the NHC states in their discussions.

[jfk08c]

If this ICON run is any indicator of how the rest of today's runs will trend, things could get spicy real quick

[SFLcane]

Wow ICON back to the SW turn now at 51 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/YCrQRzwy/icon-mslp-pcpn-seus-17.png

Hopefully not a trend with the other models

[gatorcane]

ICON 72 hours turns NNW with landfall Broward County / Ft Lauderdale it looks like:

[AutoPenalti]

ICON has landfall in Broward.

[Blown Away]

12z ICON has direct landfall into SE Florida vs a brush/recurve for 06z...

[ronjon]

NHC recognizes the precarious situation with the stall and some ensemble members still pointing to Florida. Think they meant Euro and UKMET ensembles in the discussion.

Most of the global models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the
eastern United States beyond 2 days. This steering flow would
typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and
north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location
and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance
has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are
still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.

[melhow]

I have not seen any solid explanation of the ICON (Intensity Consensus) model and it’s reliability for track.

They are not the same model. It's confusing, I know. The ICON being referenced here is a global model: https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

It is not the same as the ICON intensity consensus model.

Do you know if this model ran with the additional recon data from the turnaround late plane run that other models (EURO, GFS) I heard missed loading before they ran the most current runs?

[NDG]

Dorian will have to start moving on a 300 degree heading like right now for it to meet the forecasted point at 0z this evening by the 06z HWRF.
Dorian has been tracking on a 280 degree angle this morning over all.

[KWT]

ICON has been the furtherest south of any model, but it has been very reluctant to buy this further north and OTS idea that the models have been suggesting.

Thus far, its been doing a better job than most models with the very short term track it has to be said, but long ways to go yet.

[Michele B]

https://i.imgur.com/9h6w2EZ.gif

12z ICON has direct landfall into SE Florida vs a brush/recurve for 06z...

I would like more info on this ICON model.....how long has it been around, and does it have a track record? Seems to be running almost antithetical to other models.

And I haven't seen a one of them yet that seems to really have a handle on things.

[KWT]

Dorian will have to start moving on a 300 degree heading like right now for it to meet the forecasted point at 0z this evening by the 06z HWRF.
Dorian has been tracking on a 280 degree angle this morning over all.

Yeah both HWRF and the GFS looked too far north earlier and so this is appearing to be.

I wonder whether the lack of data from the area where the upper ridge is, is really highlighting the overly progressive nature of the GFs/CMC suite in particular in the short term. I know ECM does turn it as well, but it is from a point further south.

[kunosoura]

Does anyone have any thoughts about the indicated pressure (991 mb) @ t=0 on this 12z ICON run and how that may be affecting things?

[jlauderdal]

ICON 72 hours turns NNW with landfall Broward County / Ft Lauderdale it looks like:

https://twitter.com/SheliNBC6/status/1167814125428387840

[dukeblue219]

Does anyone have any thoughts about the indicated pressure (991 mb) @ t=0 on this 12z ICON run and how that may be affecting things?

The globals usually don't have the exact characteristics of the storms core modelled. That's part of the reason we have "hurricane" models and mesoscale models.