ATL: DORIAN - Models

[sma10]

Does anyone know what time the 12z UK ensemble graph comes out?

[AdamFirst]

Looks like the HWRF takes a large stair-step. A short jog north before it heads towards the WNW/NW again

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z GFS Ensembles:

[toad strangler]

What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west Sone but all remain off the coast correct?

No landfalls except for a few 6z Euro ensembles. People are just wary of shifts back to the W

[craptacular]

The last time the G4 flew was 30/0Z, this data from the 30/0Z is the last set of data. So there is no data sampling from the ocean in and around Dorian for a day and a half. Just something to keep in mind.

This is astounding to me given the power of this storm.

When is the next flight?

Not sure having mechanical issues

Gonzo is airborne! (according to FlightAware)

[northjaxpro]

Yes and things can change, Florida is a narrow state it doesn't take much of a shift for huge impacts. It is all about timing. I am NOT saying a landfall is going to happen, but we also aren't out of the woods either.

. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

And this:

Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the
early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to
slow down and turn northward near or just offshore of the coast, it
is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds
could occur.

This has been my chief worry for the Northeast Flotia region:

STORM SURGE FLOODIING.

Dorian does not have to impact the Northeast Florida region with a direct landfall here in the region.to cause potential major storm surge into the Ssint Johns River and.its tributaries. Irma demonstrated that 2 years ago. Dorian's inner core, should it get as close as within 50 miles of Jacksonville, can still cause potential of major surge into the river, especally if it moved NW to N, parallel.up the coast causing a prolonged onshore fetch into the river.

Also, can not forget the Intracoastal Waterway as well as storm surge would cause problems along that basin .

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?

CMC and the UKMET ensembles. That's really it AFAIK.

[USTropics]

12Z GFS Ensembles:

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019083112_GEFS_0-120h_large.png?20190831173055

You can see in these ensembles that position today is critical to an eventual track. Those members that are 26N get very close/landfall over Fl. Those that are closer to 27N have a recurve.

[galaxy401]

What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?

CMC and the UKMET ensembles. That's really it AFAIK.

The ICON too is still insistent on landfall.

[caneseddy]

What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?

CMC and the UKMET ensembles. That's really it AFAIK.

ICON landfalls
HMON has western eyewall on coast from the Cape north

[AdamFirst]

What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?

ICON landfalls in Broward County heading NW
HMON has western eyewall scrape coast from Cape Canaveral north.
CMC has a partial landfall on Cape Canaveral, stalls and drags it north.

ICON has been very alone in its reasoning, but it has performed okay with Dorian so far (i.e. sniffing out track east of Puerto Rico). While it is new, it shouldn't be completely discounted.

[NDG]

What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?

ICON and CMC

[storm4u]

EURO initialized

[toad strangler]

I’m not a fan of ICON or CMC for tropical forecasts. I’m more interested in GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles over operational

[kevin]

Discussion topic just said that Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off. It's the plane that will take readings of the ridge strength and orientation. Hopefully, the data can already be implemented in the 18z models and maybe it'll lead to a clearer picture of the situation.

[storm4u]

Wont make 18z. Definitely 0z

Discussion topic just said that Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off. It's the plane that will take readings of the ridge strength and orientation. Hopefully, the data can already be implemented in the 18z models and maybe it'll lead to a clearer picture of the situation.

[AtlanticWind]

EURO initialized

High pressure looks stronger on initialation

[dukeblue219]

I’m not a fan of ICON or CMC for tropical forecasts. I’m more interested in GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles over operational

I think most people would be looking at the ECMWF and GFS suite too. However, let's not dismiss ICON like we might some of the ancient models that show up on those spaghetti charts. It's not like the old GFDL, NOGAPS, or using the NAM at 5 days. It's a legit global model.

[hohnywx]

Discussion topic just said that Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off. It's the plane that will take readings of the ridge strength and orientation. Hopefully, the data can already be implemented in the 18z models and maybe it'll lead to a clearer picture of the situation.

18z has already passed (1 PM). Hopefully it can be inputted for 0z (7 PM).

[storm4u]

Definitely does..

EURO initialized

High pressure looks stronger on initialation