ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Looks like the HWRF takes a large stair-step. A short jog north before it heads towards the WNW/NW again
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
otowntiger wrote:What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west Sone but all remain off the coast correct?
No landfalls except for a few 6z Euro ensembles. People are just wary of shifts back to the W
Last edited by toad strangler on Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
alienstorm wrote:Not sure having mechanical issuesDuke95 wrote:alienstorm wrote:The last time the G4 flew was 30/0Z, this data from the 30/0Z is the last set of data. So there is no data sampling from the ocean in and around Dorian for a day and a half. Just something to keep in mind.
This is astounding to me given the power of this storm.
When is the next flight?
Gonzo is airborne! (according to FlightAware)
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
ronjon wrote:fci wrote:. Watches may be required for portions of thenorva13x wrote:
Yes and things can change, Florida is a narrow state it doesn't take much of a shift for huge impacts. It is all about timing. I am NOT saying a landfall is going to happen, but we also aren't out of the woods either.
east coast of Florida later today.
And this:
Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the
early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to
slow down and turn northward near or just offshore of the coast, it
is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds
could occur.
This has been my chief worry for the Northeast Flotia region:
STORM SURGE FLOODIING.
Dorian does not have to impact the Northeast Florida region with a direct landfall here in the region.to cause potential major storm surge into the Ssint Johns River and.its tributaries. Irma demonstrated that 2 years ago. Dorian's inner core, should it get as close as within 50 miles of Jacksonville, can still cause potential of major surge into the river, especally if it moved NW to N, parallel.up the coast causing a prolonged onshore fetch into the river.
Also, can not forget the Intracoastal Waterway as well as storm surge would cause problems along that basin .
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
otowntiger wrote:What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?
CMC and the UKMET ensembles. That's really it AFAIK.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:12Z GFS Ensembles:
https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019083112_GEFS_0-120h_large.png?20190831173055
You can see in these ensembles that position today is critical to an eventual track. Those members that are 26N get very close/landfall over Fl. Those that are closer to 27N have a recurve.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:otowntiger wrote:What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?
CMC and the UKMET ensembles. That's really it AFAIK.
The ICON too is still insistent on landfall.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:otowntiger wrote:What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?
CMC and the UKMET ensembles. That's really it AFAIK.
ICON landfalls
HMON has western eyewall on coast from the Cape north
Last edited by caneseddy on Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
otowntiger wrote:What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?
ICON landfalls in Broward County heading NW
HMON has western eyewall scrape coast from Cape Canaveral north.
CMC has a partial landfall on Cape Canaveral, stalls and drags it north.
ICON has been very alone in its reasoning, but it has performed okay with Dorian so far (i.e. sniffing out track east of Puerto Rico). While it is new, it shouldn't be completely discounted.
Last edited by AdamFirst on Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
otowntiger wrote:What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?
ICON and CMC
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I’m not a fan of ICON or CMC for tropical forecasts. I’m more interested in GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles over operational
Last edited by toad strangler on Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Discussion topic just said that Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off. It's the plane that will take readings of the ridge strength and orientation. Hopefully, the data can already be implemented in the 18z models and maybe it'll lead to a clearer picture of the situation.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Wont make 18z. Definitely 0z
kevin wrote:Discussion topic just said that Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off. It's the plane that will take readings of the ridge strength and orientation. Hopefully, the data can already be implemented in the 18z models and maybe it'll lead to a clearer picture of the situation.
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
storm4u wrote:EURO initialized
High pressure looks stronger on initialation
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
toad strangler wrote:I’m not a fan of ICON or CMC for tropical forecasts. I’m more interested in GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles over operational
I think most people would be looking at the ECMWF and GFS suite too. However, let's not dismiss ICON like we might some of the ancient models that show up on those spaghetti charts. It's not like the old GFDL, NOGAPS, or using the NAM at 5 days. It's a legit global model.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
kevin wrote:Discussion topic just said that Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off. It's the plane that will take readings of the ridge strength and orientation. Hopefully, the data can already be implemented in the 18z models and maybe it'll lead to a clearer picture of the situation.
18z has already passed (1 PM). Hopefully it can be inputted for 0z (7 PM).
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Definitely does..
AtlanticWind wrote:storm4u wrote:EURO initialized
High pressure looks stronger on initialation
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