ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.

There are many other upper level readings from 500 to 200 mb that have to be taken into account, especially from the upper midwest where the trough is beginning to descend southeastward. For just one example, how strong is the trough and how far southeastward will it go? So it's not so much what the ridge is now over the southeast U.S. as much as how strong and which way oriented it will be in the next 3 days.

Yes but unfortunately the short term motion now will lead to long term problem later regardless of whats happening with the shortwave. That shortwave is not close enough to cause any effect on the environment around Dorian right now..

its currently south of all the 12/18z gfs guidance and still heading west. The recurve will happen.. just when is the issue. and its looking like there will be enough ridging to cause florida east coast some serious problems.

Agreed.

Do you expect it to get within 50 miles of the Florida coast at some point?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde found 155 knots on the surface! Nearing 200mph at the 881mb flight level.

[Blinhart]

Still straight west.
26.2N 74.8W
938.6mb

That 250/200 mb high looks like it is imparting a little more steering on it.. you can see it in the high level flow to the NW of Dorian..

Anti-cyclone just formed over this.
UL will predominate steering.
Troposphere just got higher over this allowing vort column to expand vertically.
Bottom line, going for mid to strong level cat 5 and steering W to WSW.


https://i.imgur.com/ZRlPjCq.png

Looking at that graphic, there is only one place that Dorian can go and that is Miami-Dade, which is a horrible thing, because he has an excellent chance of getting to sustained winds over 180 MPH.

[ozonepete]

They'll probably go 155 next advisory, they don't seem to like going to Cat 5 close to land.

155 CAT 4 vs 156 CAT 5 is just nomenclature

156 mph is not Cat 5.

[dukeblue219]

Dropsonde found 155 knots on the surface! Nearing 200mph at the 881mb flight level.

Wow. I've been waiting on the dropsonde data to come in. Thats yet another datapoint to support at least 160mph sustained.

[Blinhart]

There are many other upper level readings from 500 to 200 mb that have to be taken into account, especially from the upper midwest where the trough is beginning to descend southeastward. For just one example, how strong is the trough and how far southeastward will it go? So it's not so much what the ridge is now over the southeast U.S. as much as how strong and which way oriented it will be in the next 3 days.

Yes but unfortunately the short term motion now will lead to long term problem later regardless of whats happening with the shortwave. That shortwave is not close enough to cause any effect on the environment around Dorian right now..

its currently south of all the 12/18z gfs guidance and still heading west. The recurve will happen.. just when is the issue. and its looking like there will be enough ridging to cause florida east coast some serious problems.

Agreed.

Do you expect it to get within 50 miles of the Florida coast at some point?

The way everything is setting up, 50 miles inland is not out of the question, or even 50 miles off the West Coast.

[StruThiO]

[AdamFirst]

That 250/200 mb high looks like it is imparting a little more steering on it.. you can see it in the high level flow to the NW of Dorian..

Anti-cyclone just formed over this.
UL will predominate steering.
Troposphere just got higher over this allowing vort column to expand vertically.
Bottom line, going for mid to strong level cat 5 and steering W to WSW.


https://i.imgur.com/ZRlPjCq.png

Looking at that graphic, there is only one place that Dorian can go and that is Miami-Dade, which is a horrible thing, because he has an excellent chance of getting to sustained winds over 180 MPH.

Levi Cowan was talking about this just thing on Friday night's Tropical Tidbits in terms of the short term steering with the upper low.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde found 155 knots on the surface! Nearing 200mph at the 881mb flight level.

Wow. I've been waiting on the dropsonde data to come in. Thats yet another datapoint to support at least 160mph sustained.

160mph is probably low end at this point. Data easily suggests 170mph.

[Jr0d]

I thought I saw a South wobble on the Dvorak.

Very interested what the next models run have to say.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1167910618000584704

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1167952347567312896

That is crazy to catch this monster right on Elbow Cay, wow!

Climbed that lighthouse a dozen times. Definitely concerned for this island!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Most insane dropsonde since Maria.

[ozonepete]

Yes but unfortunately the short term motion now will lead to long term problem later regardless of whats happening with the shortwave. That shortwave is not close enough to cause any effect on the environment around Dorian right now..

its currently south of all the 12/18z gfs guidance and still heading west. The recurve will happen.. just when is the issue. and its looking like there will be enough ridging to cause florida east coast some serious problems.

Agreed.

Do you expect it to get within 50 miles of the Florida coast at some point?

The way everything is setting up, 50 miles inland is not out of the question, or even 50 miles off the West Coast.

Oh, I was asking Aric.

[supercane4867]

I think we should see a special advisory from the NHC anytime now

[aperson]

Still straight west.
Anti-cyclone just formed over this.
UL will predominate steering.
Troposphere just got higher over this allowing vort column to expand vertically.
Bottom line, going for mid to strong level cat 5 and steering W to WSW.


https://i.imgur.com/ZRlPjCq.png

This is a great example of a system stronger than expected modifying its environment more and creating a stronger weakness to run into. Half of the GOM is spinning right now from its outflow.

[Blinhart]

They'll probably go 155 next advisory, they don't seem to like going to Cat 5 close to land.

155 CAT 4 vs 156 CAT 5 is just nomenclature

156 mph is not Cat 5.

It used to be, they must of just changed it to 157. I don't know what the difference of 1 MPH makes.

[rdcrds]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Kazmit]

I think we should see a special advisory from the NHC anytime now

https://i.imgur.com/pacUIvF.gif

Next advisory is in an hour.

[jdjaguar]

They'll probably go 155 next advisory, they don't seem to like going to Cat 5 close to land.

155 CAT 4 vs 156 CAT 5 is just nomenclature

156 mph is not Cat 5.

Let me rephrase
155 mph vs 157mph is just nomenclature.

[floridasun78]

i looking were hurr hit Abacos if south or north or middle of island that tell if still west or wnw or nw