ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormPyrate]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


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Who issued an all clear?

[Ian2401]

is it just me or does this thing look like its just barrelling W. feel like we shouldve seen some kind of slow down by now

[caneman]

The clouds out in front of Dorian are most definitely pushing West. Not good! No slow down and just barreling along

[Blown Away]

INIT 31/2100Z 26.2N 74.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH

I'm thinking Dorian will reach 75.7 a few hours before 0600z... Moving faster than forecasted from my eyes...

[dukeblue219]

I think we should see a special advisory from the NHC anytime now

https://i.imgur.com/pacUIvF.gif

Next advisory is in an hour.

It wouldn't be unreasonable for them to issue an alert if they're thinking 165mph+. It would give the 11pm local news shows time to ingest the news and get it to more people before they go to bed tonight. They've issued specials for less...

[jdjaguar]

155 CAT 4 vs 156 CAT 5 is just nomenclature

156 mph is not Cat 5.

It used to be, they must of just changed it to 157. I don't know what the difference of 1 MPH makes.

Optics

[1900hurricane]

I understand the NHC's skepticism of the SFMR at the upper end intensities since 2016. However, the last pass revealed flight level winds similar to those observed with Michael last year. I'd probably go 140 kt at this point.

[johngaltfla]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


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No,we don't have all anything. While the cone supports that now to some degree, the danger of this storm moving further west or even WSW still exists. Go read up on the 1926 Great Hurricane and get back to me. Or 1947 Lauderdale cane. They are unpredictable animals and every met in the world with a modicum of respect for the science will tell you that.

[rdcrds]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


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Who issued an all clear?

Paul dellegatto


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[Frank P]

Bahamas radar showed a wobble to the WnW in most recent loop..IMO

[ozonepete]

155 CAT 4 vs 156 CAT 5 is just nomenclature

156 mph is not Cat 5.

It used to be, they must of just changed it to 157. I don't know what the difference of 1 MPH makes.

Yes they changed it 7 years ago. Here's the notice from NHC:

Effective May 15, 2012, to resolve these rounding issues,
Category 4 on the SSHWS will be broadened by one mph at each end
of the range, yielding a new range of 130-156 mph. This will
also result in a minor modification of the Category 3 and 5 wind
speed thresholds. The SSHWS will change as follows:

From:

Category 3: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt, 178-209 km/h)
Category 4: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt, 210-249 km/h)
Category 5: 156 mph or higher (136 kt or higher, 250 km/h or
higher)

To:

Category 3: 111-129 mph (96-112 kt, 178-208 km/h)
Category 4: 130-156 mph (113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h)
Category 5: 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or higher)


Also, 1 mph makes the difference between Cat 4 and Cat 5 in the records.

[sponger]

Reminds me eerily of Andrew.

[supercane4867]

The eye is torching on WV now

[ozonepete]

155 CAT 4 vs 156 CAT 5 is just nomenclature

156 mph is not Cat 5.

Let me rephrase
155 mph vs 157mph is just nomenclature.

It goes in the record books differently for meteorologists.

[ouragans]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

[MetroMike]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


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Who issued an all clear?

Paul dellegatto


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Oh no, he reads this forum too.

[jasons2k]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


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Who issued an all clear?

Paul dellegatto


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He, of all people, should know better.

Roy Leep would have taken a more cautious stance.

[NDG]

There are many other upper level readings from 500 to 200 mb that have to be taken into account, especially from the upper midwest where the trough is beginning to descend southeastward. For just one example, how strong is the trough and how far southeastward will it go? So it's not so much what the ridge is now over the southeast U.S. as much as how strong and which way oriented it will be in the next 3 days.

Yes but unfortunately the short term motion now will lead to long term problem later regardless of whats happening with the shortwave. That shortwave is not close enough to cause any effect on the environment around Dorian right now..

its currently south of all the 12/18z gfs guidance and still heading west. The recurve will happen.. just when is the issue. and its looking like there will be enough ridging to cause florida east coast some serious problems.

Agreed.

Do you expect it to get within 50 miles of the Florida coast at some point?

Anything is possible at this point but I will not be surprised, models always have a tough time when a due west moving hurricane starts changing course as steerings start weakening & start coming in from another direction, where that happens is always the big question. Great example was Irma, it was supposed to turn towards Miami but ended up over the western keys.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like we might be getting two passes at about the same time here rather shortly.

[GCANE]

Three major feeder bands on Bahama radar.
Solid convection ahead of the eyewall.
No signs of any type of EWRC trying to start.