ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4981 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:31 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:There is no sign it is gaining any latitude. Just heading west looking at the IR at the same speed.
Could be the rare case where a hurricane is creating its own environment


Most of the models outside of the Euro keep wanting to have Dorian gain some latitude right off the bat but that is not happening at least so far.
1 likes   

MacTavish

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4982 Postby MacTavish » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:31 pm

I posted yesterday expecting an ERC or two. The lack thereof and no evidence in recon/microwave of one in the future is interesting. A microwave pass yesterday showed the core was very robust. Will be interesting to go back and look at this later.
1 likes   

HurricaneFrances04
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4983 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:31 pm

supercane4867 wrote:WV loop. Very impressive

https://i.imgur.com/M99MdZe.gif


Looks like the first trough that will break down the ridge in the top left?
0 likes   

User avatar
Ed_2001
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:39 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA>>Tampa, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4984 Postby Ed_2001 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:31 pm

To think that a few days ago we expected Dorian to fall apart right after passing the lesser Antilles...
Last edited by Ed_2001 on Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
7 likes   
The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind...

fllawyer
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:45 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4985 Postby fllawyer » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:31 pm

FYI, Orlando just rescinded their decision to close on Monday...
0 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4986 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:31 pm

NDG wrote:Still not gaining much latitude.

020900 2613N 07501W 7516 01951 9380 +186 +167 119010 014 032 000 03


Below the 2300 forecast point of 26.30 N... :eek:
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34088
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4987 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:32 pm

cjrciadt wrote:
BrandonJay21 wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
thinking they should have waited to see the 11 PM update, they may have to reverse that again later


They’re now saying they will continue to monitor the situation.

Same line WDW said too.


Even then, Orlando wouldn't get into it until Tuesday?
0 likes   

User avatar
Full8s
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 51
Age: 44
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:08 pm
Location: Hudson, Fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4988 Postby Full8s » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:33 pm

jasons wrote:
Full8s wrote:
rdcrds wrote:If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


:?: I'm in Tampa (just north of it actually) and we certainly have not gotten an "all clear".


He was referring to a specific message from WTVT.


Not to be obtuse, but I think I saw the same report and he (Delgado) intimated that things were looking good for the Tampa area, which to my mind, is very different than an "all clear".
2 likes   
"All I know is that I don't know nothin'..."

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1622
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4989 Postby sponger » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:33 pm

Texashawk wrote:So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.


No choice but to wait until 5 am. Tomorrow could be an absolute zoo.
3 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: SW Broward, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4990 Postby Patrick99 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:There is no sign it is gaining any latitude. Just heading west looking at the IR at the same speed.


I see maybe a slight hair north.....but could just be tricking me. With the small N/S wobbles it’s hard to tell.
1 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4991 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:34 pm

Full8s wrote:
jasons wrote:
Full8s wrote:
:?: I'm in Tampa (just north of it actually) and we certainly have not gotten an "all clear".


He was referring to a specific message from WTVT.


Not to be obtuse, but I think I saw the same report and he (Delgado) intimated that things were looking good for the Tampa area, which to my mind, is very different than an "all clear".


That sounds more like Paul. He would never say the c word casually, at least not until a system was well north of 28 degrees.
2 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8246
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4992 Postby jasons2k » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:36 pm

Full8s wrote:
jasons wrote:
Full8s wrote:
:?: I'm in Tampa (just north of it actually) and we certainly have not gotten an "all clear".


He was referring to a specific message from WTVT.


Not to be obtuse, but I think I saw the same report and he (Delgado) intimated that things were looking good for the Tampa area, which to my mind, is very different than an "all clear".


I didn’t see the report; I may have to watch the 11pm news online. I would be surprised to see Delegatto explicitly issue an ‘all clear’ as he knows what he’s doing.

He’s also a lurker here sometimes.
1 likes   

PandaCitrus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:44 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4993 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:36 pm

They will do what all good government officials do. Pass the buck and find a scapegoat to throw under the bus and follow orders from the NHC. The good folks at the National Hurricane Center will own whatever happens, sadly.

sponger wrote:
Texashawk wrote:So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.


No choice but to wait until 5 am. Tomorrow could be an absolute zoo.
1 likes   

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4994 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:37 pm

Texashawk wrote:So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.


There may not be enough time left for an orderly evacuation from Southeast Florida. If they delay there won’t be time. Evac is because of storm surge and the risk is considerable.
1 likes   

User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4995 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:40 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
My unprofessional guess for track.
https://ibb.co/b2QHzYR
1 likes   

User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1175
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4996 Postby Buck » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:40 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:They will do what all good government officials do. Pass the buck and find a scapegoat to throw under the bus and follow orders from the NHC. The good folks at the National Hurricane Center will own whatever happens, sadly.



Hey don’t pass me
6 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10165
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4997 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:40 pm

Image
INIT 31/2100Z 26.2N 74.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH


Dorian going to pass the 0600z 75.7
forecast point probably by 11pm from what I can see... Moving faster than forecasted it appears?
6 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2423
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4998 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:40 pm

The hottest waters of the area are right in front of Dorian. An ERC will be the only obstacle unless a surge of shear or dry air comes.

Looks terrifying.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8246
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4999 Postby jasons2k » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:40 pm

Ian2401 wrote:is it just me or does this thing look like its just barrelling W. feel like we shouldve seen some kind of slow down by now


One thing in the back of my mind all day: basic physics and inertia. An object already in motion requires more force to stop it than for it to keep going (inertia).

We may be seeing this with Dorian.

It’s eerily quiet from the pro Mets. Sometimes that means it’s really busy behind the scenes and the forecast isn’t that straightforward. I suspect we may be seeing some of that tonight.
13 likes   

User avatar
ObsessedMiami
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: West Kendall, Fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5000 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:40 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
Texashawk wrote:So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.


There may not be enough time left for an orderly evacuation from Southeast Florida. If they delay there won’t be time. Evac is because of storm surge and the risk is considerable.

Evac to where exactly? Maybe West Coast? Certainly can’t go north
2 likes   


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests