ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5201 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:25 pm

Do we know if the German Model (ICON) gets the Gonzo upper air data points??? And if so were they put in for this run? Also do all other 0Z models get them??
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5202 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:29 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:FWIW, ICON has been too far west.



Agreed. It'll adjust east but still be more west than the other models unless the rest of the 0z models also trend west.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5203 Postby MetroMike » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:31 pm

ICON a shift NE from 18z run at 63hrs
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5204 Postby MrJames » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:32 pm

GFS is running
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5205 Postby Blizzard96x » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:32 pm

No landfall in southern Florida on ICON. Stays off shore through 63
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5206 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:34 pm

MetroMike wrote:ICON a shift NE from 18z run at 63hrs

See if this will be a trend for other models tonight
But ICON is not model used by the NHC
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5207 Postby caneseddy » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:35 pm

Blizzard96x wrote:No landfall in southern Florida on ICON. Stays off shore through 63


Looks like it rides the coast up and landfalls on the Space Coast
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5208 Postby StPeteMike » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:35 pm

So the ICON starts going east (who has previously been forecasting a SE Fl hit) while many more going west (who were going east of FL or brushing the coast).

Yeah, I’m tired of this...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5209 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 pm

GFS South at 18 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5210 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 pm

StPeteMike wrote:So the ICON starts going east (who has previously been forecasting a SE Fl hit) while many more going west (who were going east of FL or brushing the coast).

Yeah, I’m tired of this...

If anything that's a sign of a convergence or consensus forming
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5211 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 pm

Blizzard96x wrote:No landfall in southern Florida on ICON. Stays off shore through 63



unless my eyes are tricking me, at 75 hours ICON looks like it has a landfall, but hard to say
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5212 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 pm

GFS a micro hair south of 18z
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5213 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:37 pm

0z Analysis for 500 heights on the GFS has the ridge further west than what the previous few GFS runs were predicting.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5214 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:39 pm

This is not good... all intervals have been south of 18z.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5215 Postby MrJames » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:40 pm

Heading NW at 36hrs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5216 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:41 pm

Both NAM and Icon spin in toward the coast farther north. If they are right, and if we see some north moves in the next couple days, look to see if there is a push back westward. Also look for it in the next round of models to see if they have anything similar
Last edited by Steve on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5217 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:43 pm

The GFS looks identical at 42 hour to me. I had put my finger on my "L" and switched back to the 18 hour run and finger was in the exact same spot. I had to make sure my eyes weren't playing tricks on me lol..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5218 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:44 pm

Trended further east a tad by 60 hours.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5219 Postby Blizzard96x » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:45 pm

GFS holds serve for the most part through 54
Last edited by Blizzard96x on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5220 Postby shah83 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:45 pm

Again, storm is further south? That first trough is stronger and further south reaching, too.
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