ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Do we know if the German Model (ICON) gets the Gonzo upper air data points??? And if so were they put in for this run? Also do all other 0Z models get them??
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:FWIW, ICON has been too far west.
Agreed. It'll adjust east but still be more west than the other models unless the rest of the 0z models also trend west.
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- Blizzard96x
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
No landfall in southern Florida on ICON. Stays off shore through 63
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
MetroMike wrote:ICON a shift NE from 18z run at 63hrs
See if this will be a trend for other models tonight
But ICON is not model used by the NHC
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Blizzard96x wrote:No landfall in southern Florida on ICON. Stays off shore through 63
Looks like it rides the coast up and landfalls on the Space Coast
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- StPeteMike
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
So the ICON starts going east (who has previously been forecasting a SE Fl hit) while many more going west (who were going east of FL or brushing the coast).
Yeah, I’m tired of this...
Yeah, I’m tired of this...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
StPeteMike wrote:So the ICON starts going east (who has previously been forecasting a SE Fl hit) while many more going west (who were going east of FL or brushing the coast).
Yeah, I’m tired of this...
If anything that's a sign of a convergence or consensus forming
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Blizzard96x wrote:No landfall in southern Florida on ICON. Stays off shore through 63
unless my eyes are tricking me, at 75 hours ICON looks like it has a landfall, but hard to say
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
GFS a micro hair south of 18z
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- TheProfessor
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
0z Analysis for 500 heights on the GFS has the ridge further west than what the previous few GFS runs were predicting.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
This is not good... all intervals have been south of 18z.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Both NAM and Icon spin in toward the coast farther north. If they are right, and if we see some north moves in the next couple days, look to see if there is a push back westward. Also look for it in the next round of models to see if they have anything similar
Last edited by Steve on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
The GFS looks identical at 42 hour to me. I had put my finger on my "L" and switched back to the 18 hour run and finger was in the exact same spot. I had to make sure my eyes weren't playing tricks on me lol..
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Trended further east a tad by 60 hours.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
GFS holds serve for the most part through 54
Last edited by Blizzard96x on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Again, storm is further south? That first trough is stronger and further south reaching, too.
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