ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1168091542743068672
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1168093235379658752
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1168093235379658752
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
The beta drift motion @ just few kts nw can make all the difference.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
maybe they keep them from landfall in north carolina but there is model support for landfall in florida nowOuterBanker wrote:All models are in pretty much agreement. Just some are a bit more west,some more east. All keep Dorian from landfall, but that may actually be worse. It allows Dorian to stay over water and produce copious amounts of rain. Some of the models have over a foot of rain from Fl to NC.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
06Z gfs shifts west!
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I'm just an enthusiast and weather fan and any comments I make are just my opinion and are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I'm just an enthusiast and weather fan and any comments I make are just my opinion and are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
jlauderdal wrote:maybe they keep them from landfall in north carolina but there is model support for landfall in florida nowOuterBanker wrote:All models are in pretty much agreement. Just some are a bit more west,some more east. All keep Dorian from landfall, but that may actually be worse. It allows Dorian to stay over water and produce copious amounts of rain. Some of the models have over a foot of rain from Fl to NC.
The 5 AM position is exactly at the latitude of the 27th hole at Trump international golf club.
Make sure we give them the right wedge to get out of this trap!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
any graphics for operational or legacy GFS run?
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
CronkPSU wrote:any graphics for operational or legacy GFS run?
Go to tropicaltidbits.com
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
06z HMON with a decent west shift at 54 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019090106&fh=54
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019090106&fh=54
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Hmon and hwrf are running, from first glance they initialized a bit too high latitude wise, but maybe it’s just my eyes with limited sleep.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
jlauderdal wrote:maybe they keep them from landfall in north carolina but there is model support for landfall in florida nowOuterBanker wrote:All models are in pretty much agreement. Just some are a bit more west,some more east. All keep Dorian from landfall, but that may actually be worse. It allows Dorian to stay over water and produce copious amounts of rain. Some of the models have over a foot of rain from Fl to NC.
0z gfs had landfall at Cape Lookout.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I see Legacy GFS shows a 930 pressure at SC/NC line -
Questions: this would probably be Cat 2? and Is this a fairly reliable model for storm strength?
Questions: this would probably be Cat 2? and Is this a fairly reliable model for storm strength?
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grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
OuterBanker wrote:All models are in pretty much agreement. Just some are a bit more west,some more east. All keep Dorian from landfall, but that may actually be worse. It allows Dorian to stay over water and produce copious amounts of rain. Some of the models have over a foot of rain from Fl to NC.
I thought I saw where the gfs landfalls it between Swansboro and Cape Lookout NC with a 960’s mb! Don’t quite know what wind that calculates to. Looks like NHC even brought it closer to there. Take a look and tell me if I’m wrong!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
HWRF is leaning toward landfall again. I think it's too far to the north when it does its turn but the motion is as clear as day.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
SouthernBreeze wrote:I see Legacy GFS shows a 930 pressure at SC/NC line -
Questions: this would probably be Cat 2? and Is this a fairly reliable model for storm strength?
It’s the “legacy” GFS for a reason.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
jlauderdal wrote:right angle seems hard to actually execute in the atmosphere, it happens but i would expect something a bit more subtle, lets seeTailspin wrote:STRiZZY wrote:
I've always wondered if that's a climo thing, and the shape of the SE is the way it is because of 1000's of years of hurricanes re-curving like that.
Grafic shows a true right angle. For me hard too believe.
Irma had a hard right turn. I think the key is that The storm slows to a crawl.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
NDG wrote:Recap loop of 0z Euro run while it tracks close to the FL east coast, interesting how the Euro expands it in size as it tracks northward:
https://i.imgur.com/wVwZtxB.gif
https://i.imgur.com/AQAEbt2.gif
Thanks for sharing these!
Anybody else notice after it turns north, just about after it passes vero beach area instead of heading poleward due north there's a little turn east ( probably heading nne ). Anybody know what the model is sniffing out here? I noticed the same on yesterday's 0z run and posted about... so it's something the model is being consistent about!!!
It's a big deal as if correct it brings close to the more northern central FLa coast as opposed to staying far enough offshore.
Anybody have any thoughts as to what the model might be telling us here?
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
smithtim wrote:NDG wrote:Recap loop of 0z Euro run while it tracks close to the FL east coast, interesting how the Euro expands it in size as it tracks northward:
https://i.imgur.com/wVwZtxB.gif
https://i.imgur.com/AQAEbt2.gif
Thanks for sharing these!
Anybody else notice after it turns north, just about after it passes vero beach area instead of heading poleward due north there's a little turn east ( probably heading nne ). Anybody know what the model is sniffing out here? I noticed the same on yesterday's 0z run and posted about... so it's something the model is being consistent about!!!
It's a big deal as if correct it brings close to the more northern central FLa coast as opposed to staying far enough offshore.
Anybody have any thoughts as to what the model might be telling us here?
The 2nd more prominent shortwave trough giving Dorian a eastward movement.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Kat5 wrote:smithtim wrote:NDG wrote:Recap loop of 0z Euro run while it tracks close to the FL east coast, interesting how the Euro expands it in size as it tracks northward:
https://i.imgur.com/wVwZtxB.gif
https://i.imgur.com/AQAEbt2.gif
Thanks for sharing these!
Anybody else notice after it turns north, just about after it passes vero beach area instead of heading poleward due north there's a little turn east ( probably heading nne ). Anybody know what the model is sniffing out here? I noticed the same on yesterday's 0z run and posted about... so it's something the model is being consistent about!!!
It's a big deal as if correct it brings close to the more northern central FLa coast as opposed to staying far enough offshore.
Anybody have any thoughts as to what the model might be telling us here?
The 2nd more prominent shortwave trough giving Dorian a eastward movement.
Thanks... After looking at the runs closer it looks like the initial turn north is just a natural "drift" poleward out of the stall, then this nne motion seems more dominant which makes sense is steering currents.
NOT GOOD for those of us coastal east FLa...
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It is not a hard right turn, it will happen after stalling for over 24 hours.
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