ATL: DORIAN - Models

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1168091542743068672




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1168093235379658752

[Tailspin]

The beta drift motion @ just few kts nw can make all the difference.

[jlauderdal]

All models are in pretty much agreement. Just some are a bit more west,some more east. All keep Dorian from landfall, but that may actually be worse. It allows Dorian to stay over water and produce copious amounts of rain. Some of the models have over a foot of rain from Fl to NC.

maybe they keep them from landfall in north carolina but there is model support for landfall in florida now

[brghteys1216]

06Z gfs shifts west!

[Nimbus]

All models are in pretty much agreement. Just some are a bit more west,some more east. All keep Dorian from landfall, but that may actually be worse. It allows Dorian to stay over water and produce copious amounts of rain. Some of the models have over a foot of rain from Fl to NC.

maybe they keep them from landfall in north carolina but there is model support for landfall in florida now

The 5 AM position is exactly at the latitude of the 27th hole at Trump international golf club.
Make sure we give them the right wedge to get out of this trap!

[USTropics]

Lots of dropsondes data from Gonzo will be in the 12z GFS run:

[CronkPSU]

any graphics for operational or legacy GFS run?

[catskillfire51]

any graphics for operational or legacy GFS run?

Go to tropicaltidbits.com

[Bocadude85]

06z HMON with a decent west shift at 54 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019090106&fh=54

[tgenius]

Hmon and hwrf are running, from first glance they initialized a bit too high latitude wise, but maybe it’s just my eyes with limited sleep.

[xironman]

All models are in pretty much agreement. Just some are a bit more west,some more east. All keep Dorian from landfall, but that may actually be worse. It allows Dorian to stay over water and produce copious amounts of rain. Some of the models have over a foot of rain from Fl to NC.

maybe they keep them from landfall in north carolina but there is model support for landfall in florida now

0z gfs had landfall at Cape Lookout.

[SouthernBreeze]

I see Legacy GFS shows a 930 pressure at SC/NC line -
Questions: this would probably be Cat 2? and Is this a fairly reliable model for storm strength?

[invest man]

All models are in pretty much agreement. Just some are a bit more west,some more east. All keep Dorian from landfall, but that may actually be worse. It allows Dorian to stay over water and produce copious amounts of rain. Some of the models have over a foot of rain from Fl to NC.

I thought I saw where the gfs landfalls it between Swansboro and Cape Lookout NC with a 960’s mb! Don’t quite know what wind that calculates to. Looks like NHC even brought it closer to there. Take a look and tell me if I’m wrong!

[AdamFirst]

HWRF is leaning toward landfall again. I think it's too far to the north when it does its turn but the motion is as clear as day.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[hohnywx]

I see Legacy GFS shows a 930 pressure at SC/NC line -
Questions: this would probably be Cat 2? and Is this a fairly reliable model for storm strength?

It’s the “legacy” GFS for a reason.

[MJGarrison]

I've always wondered if that's a climo thing, and the shape of the SE is the way it is because of 1000's of years of hurricanes re-curving like that.

Grafic shows a true right angle. For me hard too believe.

right angle seems hard to actually execute in the atmosphere, it happens but i would expect something a bit more subtle, lets see

Irma had a hard right turn. I think the key is that The storm slows to a crawl.


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[smithtim]

Recap loop of 0z Euro run while it tracks close to the FL east coast, interesting how the Euro expands it in size as it tracks northward:

https://i.imgur.com/wVwZtxB.gif
https://i.imgur.com/AQAEbt2.gif

Thanks for sharing these!

Anybody else notice after it turns north, just about after it passes vero beach area instead of heading poleward due north there's a little turn east ( probably heading nne ). Anybody know what the model is sniffing out here? I noticed the same on yesterday's 0z run and posted about... so it's something the model is being consistent about!!!

It's a big deal as if correct it brings close to the more northern central FLa coast as opposed to staying far enough offshore.

Anybody have any thoughts as to what the model might be telling us here?

[Kat5]

Recap loop of 0z Euro run while it tracks close to the FL east coast, interesting how the Euro expands it in size as it tracks northward:

https://i.imgur.com/wVwZtxB.gif
https://i.imgur.com/AQAEbt2.gif

Thanks for sharing these!

Anybody else notice after it turns north, just about after it passes vero beach area instead of heading poleward due north there's a little turn east ( probably heading nne ). Anybody know what the model is sniffing out here? I noticed the same on yesterday's 0z run and posted about... so it's something the model is being consistent about!!!

It's a big deal as if correct it brings close to the more northern central FLa coast as opposed to staying far enough offshore.

Anybody have any thoughts as to what the model might be telling us here?

The 2nd more prominent shortwave trough giving Dorian a eastward movement.

[smithtim]

Recap loop of 0z Euro run while it tracks close to the FL east coast, interesting how the Euro expands it in size as it tracks northward:

https://i.imgur.com/wVwZtxB.gif
https://i.imgur.com/AQAEbt2.gif

Thanks for sharing these!

Anybody else notice after it turns north, just about after it passes vero beach area instead of heading poleward due north there's a little turn east ( probably heading nne ). Anybody know what the model is sniffing out here? I noticed the same on yesterday's 0z run and posted about... so it's something the model is being consistent about!!!

It's a big deal as if correct it brings close to the more northern central FLa coast as opposed to staying far enough offshore.

Anybody have any thoughts as to what the model might be telling us here?

The 2nd more prominent shortwave trough giving Dorian a eastward movement.

Thanks... After looking at the runs closer it looks like the initial turn north is just a natural "drift" poleward out of the stall, then this nne motion seems more dominant which makes sense is steering currents.

NOT GOOD for those of us coastal east FLa...

[HurricaneFrances04]

It is not a hard right turn, it will happen after stalling for over 24 hours.