ATL: DORIAN - Models
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p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Blown Away wrote:Tailspin wrote:https://i.imgur.com/cJAJHPC.png?1
Hmmm, 06z Euro goes inland over GA/SC vs sharp turn, usually means sensing higher pressure.
It’s an ensemble
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CFLHurricane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
If the models are underpredicting the strength of the 500 mb ridge, believe we'll see it from the G4 sampling in the 12z suite of the models.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
12z NAM coming in with more ridging initially all G4 data is in.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Remember this is the model thread, off topic posts will be removed. Use the discussion thread for non model talk.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Based on the 06z Euro, I can't see the NHC at least posting a Hurricane Watch at 11 am for WPB to the Cape.
Can or Can't?
Can or Can't?
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
NAM is running with new data I believe.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
NAM with a west shift at 21 hours... looks faster.
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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
gatorcane wrote:06Z UKMET ensembles anybody?
Small shift west
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
it is all about the ridging on the NAM. data from the G4 still showing 592/591 riding to the NW of Dorian.. looking like Ridge pumping
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I'm not as well versed as most of you, so excuse me if I'm totally off, but I think last night's 11z (?) data had Dorian at 76.3W at 12hr, does the new data show that he's running west of forecast?
Last edited by Full8s on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Looks to be a west and even SW shift. A lot turn Dorian SW. These better be wrong
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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DelrayDude
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Wow! Ukmet has so many coming over my house in Delray Beach, FL! Even the mean track has the eyewall hammering eastern PBC.
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
For the UKMET ENS - I'm using https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo but i dont see the 06Z posted there - is there another link?
N/M - Browser/caching issue - used different browser updated fine
N/M - Browser/caching issue - used different browser updated fine
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
We will have to watch for the WSW dip when it gets over the Bahamas per hte UKMET... if that does happen need to take the UKMET seriously.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
And here's a comparison with the 00z ensemble. I'm seeing a slight West shift in the ensemble mean. But in this situation a 'slight shift' could already have major consequences.
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