ATL: DORIAN - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
p1nheadlarry
- Category 2
- Posts: 672
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
- Location: SR County FL
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Blown Away wrote:Tailspin wrote:https://i.imgur.com/cJAJHPC.png?1
Hmmm, 06z Euro goes inland over GA/SC vs sharp turn, usually means sensing higher pressure.
It’s an ensemble
2 likes
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
-
CFLHurricane
- Category 1
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:56 pm
- Location: Floriduh
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
If the models are underpredicting the strength of the 500 mb ridge, believe we'll see it from the G4 sampling in the 12z suite of the models.
2 likes
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
12z NAM coming in with more ridging initially all G4 data is in.
4 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Remember this is the model thread, off topic posts will be removed. Use the discussion thread for non model talk.
4 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Based on the 06z Euro, I can't see the NHC at least posting a Hurricane Watch at 11 am for WPB to the Cape.
Can or Can't?
Can or Can't?
1 likes
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
NAM is running with new data I believe.
2 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
NAM with a west shift at 21 hours... looks faster.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
HurricaneFrances04
- Category 2
- Posts: 597
- Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
gatorcane wrote:06Z UKMET ensembles anybody?
Small shift west
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo
0 likes
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
it is all about the ridging on the NAM. data from the G4 still showing 592/591 riding to the NW of Dorian.. looking like Ridge pumping
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I'm not as well versed as most of you, so excuse me if I'm totally off, but I think last night's 11z (?) data had Dorian at 76.3W at 12hr, does the new data show that he's running west of forecast?
Last edited by Full8s on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
"All I know is that I don't know nothin'..."
-
gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23691
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Looks to be a west and even SW shift. A lot turn Dorian SW. These better be wrong
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes
-
DelrayDude
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 9
- Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:07 pm
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Wow! Ukmet has so many coming over my house in Delray Beach, FL! Even the mean track has the eyewall hammering eastern PBC.
1 likes
-
chris_fit
- Category 5
- Posts: 3222
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
- Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
For the UKMET ENS - I'm using https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo but i dont see the 06Z posted there - is there another link?
N/M - Browser/caching issue - used different browser updated fine
N/M - Browser/caching issue - used different browser updated fine
0 likes
-
chris_fit
- Category 5
- Posts: 3222
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
- Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
We will have to watch for the WSW dip when it gets over the Bahamas per hte UKMET... if that does happen need to take the UKMET seriously.
1 likes
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
And here's a comparison with the 00z ensemble. I'm seeing a slight West shift in the ensemble mean. But in this situation a 'slight shift' could already have major consequences.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests