ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jfk08c]

We in Highland city just put under Tropical storm watch..

Assume that would mean the same for Bartow.. Let's see what happens

[Hurricaneman]

Pressure if I am seeinh correct now down to 910 mb right?

Unfortunately

[Javlin]

Hasn’t it been moving at 8 mph for the past 12+ hours?

It has been gradually slowing down, as predicted. The big slowdown is tonight.

I went back and looked at the NHC advisories. It has been moving west at 8 MPH since 11 AM yesterday. Now, at the 11 AM advisory, it has slowed to 7 MPH.

Not really buying the forward speed NHC did not have it scheduled to cross 77.1 till 4PM this afternoon by there own projections it's moving faster

INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 76.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 4AM 9/1/19
12H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

[Highteeld]

frictional convergence at its worst right now

[Dave C]

Nearing landfall...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69f3ee62561f26c963d7bf2a0c3ee3f50d1c04605278ff69f7374565fc444762.gif

Josh is going to be in the worst winds, north part of the eye probably.

[Buck]

Not correct (yet) by any metric. Only for the northwestern Bahamas.

Pretty sure this is in reference to the record set by Irma in regard to hurricanes outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which it set with 180 mph winds and a 914mb central pressure.

You’re correct. That’s what the weather channel just said.

The GOM and Caribbean are part of the Atlantic Ocean and Atlantic basin. So if you mean open Atlantic, specify that. Also, Labor Day hurricane still has lower pressure and higher winds.

[Highteeld]

This is the super typhoon haiyan of the Atlantic

[feederband]

We in Highland city just put under Tropical storm watch..

Assume that would mean the same for Bartow.. Let's see what happens

Came in form of text.

[ronjon]

With the hurricane watch up now, I would expect mandatory evacuations of the barrier islands in the watch area. Especially with the expanded wind field mentioned by the NHC.

[BYG Jacob]

Highest ever SFMR measurement in the modern history of Atlantic Ocean

https://i.imgur.com/lXCleAg.png

Is that 180 knots?

[supercane4867]

These water vapor images are insane. I'm speechless
EYE maxing out color scale on all channels

[Yellow Evan]

This is the super typhoon haiyan of the Atlantic

I wouldn't go that far yet but this is getting close which considering its Dvorak presentation is breathtaking.

[Ptarmigan]

The Labor Day hurricane from 1935 also had 185mph winds

I think the Labor Day Hurricane was stronger due to the low pressure and smaller size of the hurricane. I suspect it had sustained winds of over 200 mph!

[wxman57]

Did TWC just mention that the cone for 11am isnt updated on visual ???

Ignore the cone, it is completely meaningless!

[Bostonriff]

Anyone have a link to Bahamas radar? TIA....

[Ian2401]

Anyone have a link to Bahamas radar? TIA....

http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

[Javlin]

WSW coming in a couple of hours the clouds are filling in to the SW of the system and the back of the system sre going N some

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[1900hurricane]

I'd want to see flight level winds much higher before going into uncharted waters like that. At this rate, who knows, maybe it will close off a CDG ring and end up like Haiyan or Patricia?

https://i.imgur.com/B5PKyDR.jpg

This doesn't even have a W ring... Eye temps could easily rival Patricia though.

It's worth pointing out that farther North tropical systems tend to have trouble producing cloud tops as cold as in the deep tropics, and Dvorak estimates tend to be underdone as hurricanes can be stronger with warmer cloud tops

This is true, but doesn't really apply right now. Sounding data indicates that tropopause height and temperatures are still about the same as they were when Dorian was in the Caribbean. As far as the upper troposphere is concerned, Dorian may as well still be in the NATL deep tropics.

[Highteeld]

Here's the calculated MPI:
Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 900.4 hPa

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 SEP 2019 Time : 145019 UTC
Lat : 26:34:11 N Lon : 76:46:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 938.0mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +20.9C Cloud Region Temp : -68.1C

Scene Type : EYE