ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
177 knots unflagged. my lord.
2 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16167
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
177 knots SFMR and not even in the NE.... Patricia's SFMR record of 182 knots could fall next pass.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
They missed the center so the actual reading probably is near 905mb. 177kt SFMR is the highest observed worldwide since Patricia
2 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Megi '10 tier if that value is legit. Not sure though, since we're beginning to see some land in the eye.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I don't have an image, but I have heard that outflow patterns can indicate direction of motion. I see a bit of a northern pointer on latest satellite.
0 likes
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
This is up there with Hurricane Allen in terms of max wind
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
About to make landfall now, one of the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record


2 likes
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Position is a tiny bit south compared to the last center fix I think?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:907mb 177kt SFMR
Upper extreme of possible winds...Worst case scenario...
Super category 5...
Last edited by Sanibel on Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- SEASON_CANCELED
- Category 3
- Posts: 887
- Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
- Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
tronbunny wrote:I don't have an image, but I have heard that outflow patterns can indicate direction of motion. I see a bit of a northern pointer on latest satellite.
Large hurricanes create there own stearing sometimes
Fortunately Dorian is not large in size compared to Ivan or Wilma
0 likes
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
- tarheelprogrammer
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1793
- Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Hopefully they do not ignore the measurement and up the winds. Either way, the Bahamas are feeling it now. 

0 likes
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16167
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Highteeld wrote:This is up there with Hurricane Allen in terms of max wind
There's some uncertainty with SFMR at this grade of intensity but a case could be made this is 175 knots right now if blindly following SFMR. Although I'd likely only go 165 or 170 knots.
0 likes
- HurricaneEnzo
- Category 2
- Posts: 739
- Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
- Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)
Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Well they had 176kts earlier with no land so........1900hurricane wrote:Megi '10 tier if that value is legit. Not sure though, since we're beginning to see some land in the eye.
Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
0 likes
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Thank you Sanibel, it is reassuring to have you confirm my take on the situation. Good luck!
0 likes
- DestinHurricane
- Category 4
- Posts: 935
- Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
- Location: New York, NY
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Read somewhere that a stronger storm would be more likely to keep going west. Can you guys confirm this is true?
0 likes
Michael 2018
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:177 knots SFMR and not even in the NE.... Patricia's SFMR record of 182 knots could fall next pass.
What were the highest FL winds recorded in Patricia?
0 likes
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Put this in a frame folks:


0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
TorSkk wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:177 knots SFMR and not even in the NE.... Patricia's SFMR record of 182 knots could fall next pass.
What were the highest FL winds recorded in Patricia?
192 kt, two way tie for world record with Megi '10.
1 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to 160kts due to the fact that FL winds are unchanged
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 166 guests