ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Highteeld
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5961 Postby Highteeld » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:32 am

177 knots unflagged. my lord.
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5962 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:32 am

177 knots SFMR and not even in the NE.... Patricia's SFMR record of 182 knots could fall next pass.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5963 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:33 am

They missed the center so the actual reading probably is near 905mb. 177kt SFMR is the highest observed worldwide since Patricia
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5964 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:34 am

Megi '10 tier if that value is legit. Not sure though, since we're beginning to see some land in the eye.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5965 Postby tronbunny » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:34 am

I don't have an image, but I have heard that outflow patterns can indicate direction of motion. I see a bit of a northern pointer on latest satellite.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5966 Postby Highteeld » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:34 am

This is up there with Hurricane Allen in terms of max wind
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5967 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:34 am

About to make landfall now, one of the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5968 Postby Airboy » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:35 am

Position is a tiny bit south compared to the last center fix I think?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5969 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:35 am

supercane4867 wrote:907mb 177kt SFMR


Upper extreme of possible winds...Worst case scenario...

Super category 5...
Last edited by Sanibel on Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5970 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:35 am

tronbunny wrote:I don't have an image, but I have heard that outflow patterns can indicate direction of motion. I see a bit of a northern pointer on latest satellite.



Large hurricanes create there own stearing sometimes

Fortunately Dorian is not large in size compared to Ivan or Wilma
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5971 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:36 am

Hopefully they do not ignore the measurement and up the winds. Either way, the Bahamas are feeling it now. :cry:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5972 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:36 am

Highteeld wrote:This is up there with Hurricane Allen in terms of max wind


There's some uncertainty with SFMR at this grade of intensity but a case could be made this is 175 knots right now if blindly following SFMR. Although I'd likely only go 165 or 170 knots.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5973 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:36 am

1900hurricane wrote:Megi '10 tier if that value is legit. Not sure though, since we're beginning to see some land in the eye.
Well they had 176kts earlier with no land so........

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5974 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:36 am

RIP Abaco Island

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5975 Postby igoldfish » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:36 am

Thank you Sanibel, it is reassuring to have you confirm my take on the situation. Good luck!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5976 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:37 am

Read somewhere that a stronger storm would be more likely to keep going west. Can you guys confirm this is true?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5977 Postby TorSkk » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:37 am

Yellow Evan wrote:177 knots SFMR and not even in the NE.... Patricia's SFMR record of 182 knots could fall next pass.


What were the highest FL winds recorded in Patricia?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5978 Postby Highteeld » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:37 am

Put this in a frame folks:

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5979 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:38 am

TorSkk wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:177 knots SFMR and not even in the NE.... Patricia's SFMR record of 182 knots could fall next pass.


What were the highest FL winds recorded in Patricia?

192 kt, two way tie for world record with Megi '10.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5980 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:40 am

I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to 160kts due to the fact that FL winds are unchanged
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