ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Since it's weakening faster than expected, I won't be surprised if it's just a tropical storm by the time is reaches the Carolina area late in the week, due to more shear etc that is expected.....

I really doubt that and so do the models & pros.

[wxman57]

Here's a sat pic with surface obs. Dorian's wind field remains rather compact. Winds along the coast of Florida east of the center are in the 12-20 mph range. I see a 25-30 mph west wind across the northern Keys. 50kt (58 mph) wind on the west end of Grand Bahama Islands in the outer part of the eyewall.

[xironman]

Still no sign of a second wind maxima for a EWRC

[SeaBrz_FL]

What are the conditions like along the Florida coastline?....are yall experiencing Tropical Storm level winds?

Sunny but getting bigger gusts as the day goes on. Just had an old banana tree fall, but it would have happened in our next thunderstorm. Has some "sun rain", but actually quite nice out (for now). Highest gust so far 26 mph.

[supercane4867]

Since it's weakening faster than expected, I won't be surprised if it's just a tropical storm by the time is reaches the Carolina area late in the week, due to more shear etc that is expected.....

Not likely, it usually takes much more for a well formed hurricane like this to spin down from CAT1 to TS. In fact, many of them can maintain hurricane force winds for a long period even after becoming ex-tropical.

My guess is that we’ll see CAT1 to low end CAT2 impacts on the Carolinas

[wxman57]

Looks like Dorian may now be a Cat 3 hurricane, according to the first recon pass. Pressure way up. Top of this web portal page lists Dorian as a Cat 5, but it was downgraded to a 4 in the last advisory (135 kts).

[wx98]

Still no sign of a second wind maxima for a EWRC

From what I’ve been getting here it’s apparently already gone through one and completed it

[Aric Dunn]

A sustained wind of 40mph at Juno Pier. Wind field is getting larger.

[PandaCitrus]

There is a storm surge catastrophe unfolding in Freeport.

 https://twitter.com/MorrisMedici/status/1168570843754049538

[AJC3]

Buoy on west end of Grand Bahama now reporting sustained winds 45kts gusts to 57kts pressure 990.8mb.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

Small clarification in case anyone was wondering. This is a land based NOAA C-Man station, not a buoy, so you won't see any wave data from this platform.

[1900hurricane]

I'd probably bring the 06Z intensity down to 140 kt, 12Z to 125 kt, and set 18Z to 115 kt. Flight level wind reduction supported 115 kt, and that extrapolates to a 0.5T reduction every six hours since 00Z.

[edu2703]

2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.4°W
Moving: WNW at 1 mph
Min pressure: 938 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[PandaCitrus]

A weakening storm travelling at 1mph isn't very exciting or interesting to comment on. Probabilities of catastrophic impacts are greatly reduced and people are tired and trying to enjoy their Labor Day I guess.

It's still living hell in the Bahamas. Tons of video on Twitter from Freeport with catastrophic flooding.

Anyone home? Got awful quiet.....

[wx98]

Either they went off raw FL winds or they just don’t want to lower it too much too quickly

[sikkar]

NHC kept speed at 150MPH.

[GCANE]

Major part if not all of the eyewall back over water.
Quickly snapping back to a more circular shape and possibly contracting.
A few lightning strikes in the eyewall.
Cloud tops cooling again.

[ronjon]

A shallower storm system will follow the low level flow more compared to a taller storm system, since upper level flow starts to have a larger effect on storm motion with a taller storm system.

A weaker Dorian now may actually imply a track slightly closer to the Florida coast, since low level flow will be out of the southeast on closest approach, while upper level flow will be out of the west.

And an expanded wind field. Some of the models really enlarge the size of tropical storm force winds in 2-3 days.

[Sanibel]

Weakening might mean Levi Cowen's prediction of a shallower storm being pushed to the Florida coast might verify...

[1900hurricane]

2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.4°W
Moving: WNW at 1 mph
Min pressure: 938 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

That intensity looks very generous but makes sense from the NHC's standpoint since they like continuity. They can edit best track points later to better fit the data if need be.

[Canelaw99]

Current steering map?