ATL: DORIAN - Models

[plasticup]

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

RI with a wind field this broad? Seems unlikely. But obviously that would be one of the factors that the model considers

[boulderrr]

18Z GFS a bit stronger... still very close to the coast

[boulderrr]

GFS slightly faster, slightly stronger, and slightly closer to the coast. Trend from 12Z to 18Z:

[USTropics]

A closeup look at UKMET/ECMWF/GFS 12z ensembles plots.

12z UKMET


12z ECMWF


12z GFS

[p1nheadlarry]

Seems like the bulk of the main global models bring it right on or over the OBX, but the NHC doesn't. Is it because the TVCN is offshore?

[USTropics]

Seems like the bulk of the main global models bring it right on or over the OBX, but the NHC doesn't. Is it because the TVCN is offshore?

The official NHC track update at 5PM has the core passing over the OBX, slightly north of the TVCN at the 24-48 hour markers:

The track guidance remains very
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from
the previous forecast. It should be noted that the track is close
to and almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United
State, and any deviation to the left of the track could bring the
center onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

[Do_For_Love]

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

RI with a wind field this broad? Seems unlikely. But obviously that would be one of the factors that the model considers

Well, there's an 89% chance that RI will not occur according to SHIPS, so it is very unlikely. The fact it could happen at all is kind of scary though

[seahawkjd]

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

RI with a wind field this broad? Seems unlikely. But obviously that would be one of the factors that the model considers

Well, there's an 89% chance that RI will not occur according to SHIPS, so it is very unlikely. The fact it could happen at all is kind of scary though

That whole naked swirl thing people were joking about last night isn't still on the table is it? No?

[aperson]

RI with a wind field this broad? Seems unlikely. But obviously that would be one of the factors that the model considers

Well, there's an 89% chance that RI will not occur according to SHIPS, so it is very unlikely. The fact it could happen at all is kind of scary though

That whole naked swirl thing people were joking about last night isn't still on the table is it? No?

Not once it started moving more than 0.1mph out of its upwelled water.

[Do_For_Love]

That whole naked swirl thing people were joking about last night isn't still on the table is it? No?

To stay on the theme of the thread, I'll just say that I haven't personally seen any model support for that, lol

[storm4u]

Anyone got the 18z Euro

[supercane4867]

Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

[pgoss11]

Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?

[storm4u]

Thanks for posting and impacts to New England this run?

Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

[tolakram]

Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?

North Carolina. 6z, 12z, and now 18Z each has shifted west.

[supercane4867]

Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?

Not huge in terms of distance, but it's significant in terms of impact potential. That angle of approach would cause much worse wind and surage damage along the coast

[pgoss11]

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?

North Carolina. 6z, 12z, and now 18Z each has shifted west.

Thanks for explaining that .

[tolakram]

Thanks for posting and impacts to New England this run?

Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

No.. It curves back a bit and goes inland near Halifax NS.

[Nimbus]

The eye is huge now so the volume of outflow necessary for rapid intensification isn't available. But with that large eye we have a larger eyewall with 100 MPH winds further from the center. The official forecast brings Dorian so close to the North Carolina coastline that hurricane force winds could occur on the mainland. There will be a lot of erosion from the storm surge where people have built on the sand dunes at a minimum.

The Floridians are tired from wobble watching wondering if they would lose power and that could be a concern in Virginia since there are tropical storm warnings in some areas there. You can freeze a gallon of water ahead of time to hold you over a day or so.

Obviously we will have a much better idea tomorrow.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

No.. It curves back a bit and goes inland near Halifax NS.

Yup, the trough is trying to capture Dorian. Some baroclinic induced intensification could even occur due to the setup if this scenario verifies.