ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

Crazy how quiet this thread is considering we could have a landfalling major hurricane in the CONUS tomorrow night.

Yep. Fatigue. Us Floridians have nothing left in the tank after nearly a week of being stalked by Dorian

[xironman]

That's a big one

F. Eye Character: Closed Wall
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles)

[1900hurricane]

Here's the latest VDM.

[AnnularCane]

https://kfor.com/2019/09/04/hurricane-dorian-washes-bricks-of-cocaine-onto-florida-beaches/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=5d702cff145a57000153bfb7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1TuRT05SjzUe9lLv-0HKoJXnDqJh-FdBfV5ITdCRze4rnQGEU_H6JaEek


https://i.imgur.com/kHuob78.png

I've heard of late-season storms moving through the NE like Sandy that occasionally bring some white stuff but this is a first for Florida

If the new normal is for hurricanes to be on that stuff maybe it will cancel out the increase in stalling?

On the other hand, it could result in some really weird tracks.

[birdwomn]

Levi's evening blog: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

He talks about VA & MD - for those of you asking earlier.

[aperson]

Here's the latest VDM.

Finally closed its eyewall

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1169393454994075650



 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1169393457955319808



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1169398977776803840

[supercane4867]

That's a big one

F. Eye Character: Closed Wall
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles)

Anyone know the record for the largest observed closed eyewall in the Atlantic basin? Dorian seems to have the largest ever

[Ptarmigan]

Crazy how quiet this thread is considering we could have a landfalling major hurricane in the CONUS tomorrow night.

Yep. Fatigue. Us Floridians have nothing left in the tank after nearly a week of being stalked by Dorian

That is what I am thinking too.

[1900hurricane]

That's a big one

F. Eye Character: Closed Wall
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles)

Anyone know the record for the largest observed closed eyewall in the Atlantic basin? Dorian seems to have the largest ever

Don't know about largest, but Wilma '05 had one as large as 65 nm.

[EnnisTx]

Spent the week in the hospital fighting off a bad case of sepsis. Was reading through the posts over the last few days and it looks like some folks on here owe the NHC, Pro Mets. And their local Emergency Managers an apology.

They have those jobs for a reason. They're highly trained and skilled at what they do and to be calling for resignations and such is absolutely BS.

I want to personally say that I appreciate each and everyone of them for a job well done and for the time they spend on here answering questions and listening to some of this crap.

Just my 2 cents worth, like it or not.

[StruThiO]

Do those near 100kt sfmrs look good?

[StruThiO]

Why is it so quiet in here

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1169405795462602752




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1169406522591457280

[supercane4867]

Do those near 100kt sfmrs look good?

Seems reasonable to me, they are in-line with FL->Sfc winds. We could see an upgrade to CAT3 at 11PM if they find more SFMR readings near 100kt

[FireRat]

There's a happy face in Dorian's eye. He's trolling us all.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_05L_201909042332.jpg?3022803

MARIO, is that you??

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely looks like a shade more intensification than what was expected. Could go as high as 105 knots?

[supercane4867]

Definitely looks like a shade more intensification than what was expected. Could go as high as 105 knots?

It maybe already there...Recon just found 120kt FL wind in western eyewall

[psyclone]

This is one beast of a storm. As far as the massive eye...IIRC Frances 04 sported an eye of 70 or so miles across while east of Florida and moved onshore with a very large center. Probably could have had a BBQ during the calm..

[supercane4867]

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro. With recent recon data it appears that a landfalling major on eastern NC is very likely now

[1900hurricane]

Recon just found 121 kt flight level winds at 750 mb. There is no standard reduction rate from 750 mb, but eyeballing the mean dropsonde wind profile from Franklin, Black, and Valde that gave us the reduction rates we use today gets me about a 0.88 reduction. That's good for about 105 kt, and backs up the 99 kt SFMR. I'd adjust 00Z intensity to 100 kt personally.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1169411492267155457