ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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caneman
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8541 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:00 pm

JBCycloneStan wrote:Crazy how quiet this thread is considering we could have a landfalling major hurricane in the CONUS tomorrow night.


Yep. Fatigue. Us Floridians have nothing left in the tank after nearly a week of being stalked by Dorian
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8542 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:00 pm

That's a big one

F. Eye Character: Closed Wall
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8543 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:02 pm

Here's the latest VDM.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8544 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:02 pm

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:
Highteeld wrote:https://kfor.com/2019/09/04/hurricane-dorian-washes-bricks-of-cocaine-onto-florida-beaches/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=5d702cff145a57000153bfb7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1TuRT05SjzUe9lLv-0HKoJXnDqJh-FdBfV5ITdCRze4rnQGEU_H6JaEek

:double: :double: :double:
https://i.imgur.com/kHuob78.png


I've heard of late-season storms moving through the NE like Sandy that occasionally bring some white stuff but this is a first for Florida


If the new normal is for hurricanes to be on that stuff maybe it will cancel out the increase in stalling? :lol:



On the other hand, it could result in some really weird tracks. :lol:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8545 Postby birdwomn » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:02 pm

Levi's evening blog: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

He talks about VA & MD - for those of you asking earlier.
Last edited by birdwomn on Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8546 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:03 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Here's the latest VDM.


Finally closed its eyewall
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8547 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:09 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8548 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:12 pm

xironman wrote:That's a big one

F. Eye Character: Closed Wall
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles)

Anyone know the record for the largest observed closed eyewall in the Atlantic basin? Dorian seems to have the largest ever
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8549 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:17 pm

caneman wrote:
JBCycloneStan wrote:Crazy how quiet this thread is considering we could have a landfalling major hurricane in the CONUS tomorrow night.


Yep. Fatigue. Us Floridians have nothing left in the tank after nearly a week of being stalked by Dorian


That is what I am thinking too.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8550 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:20 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
xironman wrote:That's a big one

F. Eye Character: Closed Wall
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles)

Anyone know the record for the largest observed closed eyewall in the Atlantic basin? Dorian seems to have the largest ever

Don't know about largest, but Wilma '05 had one as large as 65 nm.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8551 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:22 pm

Spent the week in the hospital fighting off a bad case of sepsis. Was reading through the posts over the last few days and it looks like some folks on here owe the NHC, Pro Mets. And their local Emergency Managers an apology.

They have those jobs for a reason. They're highly trained and skilled at what they do and to be calling for resignations and such is absolutely BS.

I want to personally say that I appreciate each and everyone of them for a job well done and for the time they spend on here answering questions and listening to some of this crap. :notworthy:

Just my 2 cents worth, like it or not.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8552 Postby StruThiO » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:24 pm

Do those near 100kt sfmrs look good?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8553 Postby StruThiO » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:28 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8554 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:30 pm

StruThiO wrote:Do those near 100kt sfmrs look good?

Seems reasonable to me, they are in-line with FL->Sfc winds. We could see an upgrade to CAT3 at 11PM if they find more SFMR readings near 100kt
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8555 Postby FireRat » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:32 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:There's a happy face in Dorian's eye. He's trolling us all.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_05L_201909042332.jpg?3022803



MARIO, is that you??

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8556 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:33 pm

Definitely looks like a shade more intensification than what was expected. Could go as high as 105 knots?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8557 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:35 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Definitely looks like a shade more intensification than what was expected. Could go as high as 105 knots?

It maybe already there...Recon just found 120kt FL wind in western eyewall
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8558 Postby psyclone » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:36 pm

This is one beast of a storm. As far as the massive eye...IIRC Frances 04 sported an eye of 70 or so miles across while east of Florida and moved onshore with a very large center. Probably could have had a BBQ during the calm..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8559 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:37 pm

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro. With recent recon data it appears that a landfalling major on eastern NC is very likely now

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8560 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:39 pm

Recon just found 121 kt flight level winds at 750 mb. There is no standard reduction rate from 750 mb, but eyeballing the mean dropsonde wind profile from Franklin, Black, and Valde that gave us the reduction rates we use today gets me about a 0.88 reduction. That's good for about 105 kt, and backs up the 99 kt SFMR. I'd adjust 00Z intensity to 100 kt personally.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1169411492267155457


Last edited by 1900hurricane on Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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