Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[abajan]

NHC fixed the cone of the 2 PM TWO.

https://i.imgur.com/GPXUrPN.png

I didn't get a chance to view the map accompanying the 2 PM TWO. Was it that they didn't update the 8 AM graphic, or was it updated incorrectly and then changed to the one currently shown?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the GFS has much faster cyclogenesis this run

Oops it looks like it’s the wave behind that the GFS develops around 72hrs and not this

[abajan]

NHC fixed the cone of the 2 PM TWO.

https://i.imgur.com/GPXUrPN.png

Actually still 2 yellow X's in the MDR still. Very confusing on why the keep the 1st one.

Yes, it's still 2 yellow X's. But the maps are configured in such a way that you can click each area individually to focus on just one and remove the others. What I'm wondering is if they used the same map with the 2 PM TWO that they did with the 8 AM one.

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep...18z GFS appears to be spinning this up much quicker than the 12z did. It will be very interesting to see what role this has on the future track. Conventional wisdom would seem to indicate that it may be pulled poleward sooner...but we shall see.

[cycloneye]

NHC fixed the cone of the 2 PM TWO.

https://i.imgur.com/GPXUrPN.png

I didn't get a chance to view the map accompanying the 2 PM TWO. Was it that they didn't update the 8 AM graphic, or was it updated incorrectly and then changed to the one currently shown?

They put this out before 2 PM but later they updated it with the larger cone.

[Hurricaneman]

It actually looks like the GFS drops development with this and goes with the wave behind

[toad strangler]

Very strange run. The storm it’s showing is not the wave we have been watching. That one looks strung out over the Greater Antilles at 156 hrs

[Hammy]

It actually looks like the GFS drops development with this and goes with the wave behind

Generally a sign things aren't going to be favorable for anything in the MDR in the medium term--remember both GFS and Euro dropped what is now 94L in favor of the wave behind it, same happened with the series of waves in late July/early August.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Going to consider the 18z GFS an outlier for now. Randomly drops development and goes nuts with the wave behind it. Not saying that one shouldn't be watched, just there's very little model support for that solution.

[toad strangler]

Going to consider the 18z GFS an outlier for now. Randomly drops development and goes nuts with the wave behind it.

I would put many more marbles in Euro camp after seeing this.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I will say I'm quickly getting fed up with the musical chairs game the GFS is playing: first 94L, then this wave, and now the one behind it? Just as likely at this point that these are phantom storms.

[Kazmit]

Seems like for the past few waves models are enthusiastic for a while... then drop development and instead go for the one behind.

[toad strangler]

I will say I'm quickly getting fed up with the musical chairs game the GFS is playing: first 94L, then this wave, and now the one behind it? Just as likely at this point that these are phantom storms.

A little peak season climo built in?

[AutoPenalti]

Seems like for the past few waves models are enthusiastic for a while... then drop development and instead go for the one behind.

Which makes sense considering how sensitive it is to environmental changes.

[abajan]

Hour 240 showing a powerful hurricane apparently heading OTS. Hope so.

[crownweather]

Going to consider the 18z GFS an outlier for now. Randomly drops development and goes nuts with the wave behind it. Not saying that one shouldn't be watched, just there's very little model support for that solution.

Want to see the 18z GFS ensembles as well as the 18z Euro and its ensembles. Like you, it almost looks like it could be a one off model and the ensembles might give us more clarity if this is true or not.

[cycloneye]

Going to consider the 18z GFS an outlier for now. Randomly drops development and goes nuts with the wave behind it. Not saying that one shouldn't be watched, just there's very little model support for that solution.

Want to see the 18z GFS ensembles as well as the 18z Euro and its ensembles. Like you, it almost looks like it could be a one off model and the ensembles might give us more clarity if this is true or not.

When they come out if you can post them, it will be important to see.

[MetroMike]

If we ever get a vorticity center then maybe we could get non psychotic solutions from the GFS.
This is exhausting watching this particular model.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS likely developing way to soon and nearly all systems that strengthen/deepen east of 40W recurve OTS. Let’s see if the 18z influences the 8pm update. The forecast so far is only 30% chance of development in next 5 days, GFS was way ahead of schedule.

[chris_fit]

GFS Trend - all these runs are from today.... wow lol