I didn't get a chance to view the map accompanying the 2 PM TWO. Was it that they didn't update the 8 AM graphic, or was it updated incorrectly and then changed to the one currently shown?
Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
I didn't get a chance to view the map accompanying the 2 PM TWO. Was it that they didn't update the 8 AM graphic, or was it updated incorrectly and then changed to the one currently shown?
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Looks like the GFS has much faster cyclogenesis this run
Oops it looks like it’s the wave behind that the GFS develops around 72hrs and not this
Oops it looks like it’s the wave behind that the GFS develops around 72hrs and not this
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
MetroMike wrote:
Actually still 2 yellow X's in the MDR still. Very confusing on why the keep the 1st one.
Yes, it's still 2 yellow X's. But the maps are configured in such a way that you can click each area individually to focus on just one and remove the others. What I'm wondering is if they used the same map with the 2 PM TWO that they did with the 8 AM one.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Yep...18z GFS appears to be spinning this up much quicker than the 12z did. It will be very interesting to see what role this has on the future track. Conventional wisdom would seem to indicate that it may be pulled poleward sooner...but we shall see.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
abajan wrote:
I didn't get a chance to view the map accompanying the 2 PM TWO. Was it that they didn't update the 8 AM graphic, or was it updated incorrectly and then changed to the one currently shown?
They put this out before 2 PM but later they updated it with the larger cone.

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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
It actually looks like the GFS drops development with this and goes with the wave behind
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Very strange run. The storm it’s showing is not the wave we have been watching. That one looks strung out over the Greater Antilles at 156 hrs
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Hurricaneman wrote:It actually looks like the GFS drops development with this and goes with the wave behind
Generally a sign things aren't going to be favorable for anything in the MDR in the medium term--remember both GFS and Euro dropped what is now 94L in favor of the wave behind it, same happened with the series of waves in late July/early August.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Going to consider the 18z GFS an outlier for now. Randomly drops development and goes nuts with the wave behind it. Not saying that one shouldn't be watched, just there's very little model support for that solution.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Going to consider the 18z GFS an outlier for now. Randomly drops development and goes nuts with the wave behind it.
I would put many more marbles in Euro camp after seeing this.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
I will say I'm quickly getting fed up with the musical chairs game the GFS is playing: first 94L, then this wave, and now the one behind it? Just as likely at this point that these are phantom storms.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Seems like for the past few waves models are enthusiastic for a while... then drop development and instead go for the one behind.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I will say I'm quickly getting fed up with the musical chairs game the GFS is playing: first 94L, then this wave, and now the one behind it? Just as likely at this point that these are phantom storms.
A little peak season climo built in?
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Kazmit wrote:Seems like for the past few waves models are enthusiastic for a while... then drop development and instead go for the one behind.
Which makes sense considering how sensitive it is to environmental changes.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Hour 240 showing a powerful hurricane apparently heading OTS. Hope so.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Going to consider the 18z GFS an outlier for now. Randomly drops development and goes nuts with the wave behind it. Not saying that one shouldn't be watched, just there's very little model support for that solution.
Want to see the 18z GFS ensembles as well as the 18z Euro and its ensembles. Like you, it almost looks like it could be a one off model and the ensembles might give us more clarity if this is true or not.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
crownweather wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Going to consider the 18z GFS an outlier for now. Randomly drops development and goes nuts with the wave behind it. Not saying that one shouldn't be watched, just there's very little model support for that solution.
Want to see the 18z GFS ensembles as well as the 18z Euro and its ensembles. Like you, it almost looks like it could be a one off model and the ensembles might give us more clarity if this is true or not.
When they come out if you can post them, it will be important to see.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
If we ever get a vorticity center then maybe we could get non psychotic solutions from the GFS.
This is exhausting watching this particular model.
This is exhausting watching this particular model.
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Re: Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic
18z GFS likely developing way to soon and nearly all systems that strengthen/deepen east of 40W recurve OTS. Let’s see if the 18z influences the 8pm update. The forecast so far is only 30% chance of development in next 5 days, GFS was way ahead of schedule.
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