ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

This is what I see this morning, there's a broad circulation W of the deep convection, which will reform or move north while weak following the convection, once it becomes influenced by the ridge over the TN river valley it will track through the northern Bahamas, unfortunately, what happens after that is still up in the air, but the trend is that it will not get into GOM, that's for sure, whether it will get to FL or stay away from FL is still 50/50. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/IrW8v5B.jpg

First and foremost, at this point now, I think the chance of seeing this emerge in the GOM is very very slim now.

I will hedge my bet that we will see almost unfortunately something similar to Dorian's path . My heart breaks in me saying this as it will take a path into the NW Bahamas. Godspeed to our neighbors down there!!

Once again, we will have another close watch with how close the center of the cyclone will get to FL, GA or up along the SE Atlantic Coast. It is yet another very complex pattern/ set-up as was the case with Dorian.

Wow, it is like Groundhog Day again

[OuterBanker]

Euro, CMC, Legacy, all east now.
GFS is now the only model with a smeared mess into the panhandle.

[NDG]

This is what I see this morning, there's a broad circulation W of the deep convection, which will reform or move north while weak following the convection, once it becomes influenced by the ridge over the TN river valley it will track through the northern Bahamas, unfortunately, what happens after that is still up in the air, but the trend is that it will not get into GOM, that's for sure, whether it will get to FL or stay away from FL is still 50/50. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/IrW8v5B.jpg

First and foremost, at this point now, I think the chance of seeing this emerge in the GOM is very very slim now.

I will hedge my bet that we will see almost unfortunately something similar to Dorian's path . My heart breaks in me saying this as it will take a path into the NW Bahamas. Godspeed to our neighbors down there!!

Once again, we will have another close watch with how close the center of the cyclone will get to FL, GA or up along the SE Atlantic Coast. It is yet another very complex pattern/ set-up as was the case with Dorian.

Wow, it is like Groundhog Day again

Very complex indeed, but ridging across the southern US is stronger this time than with Dorian so it will not surprise me if it gets closer to FL than Dorian but as long as the UKMET is east of FL, which in the past the UKMET over amplifies ridging, is a good thing.

[hipshot]

Then west through northern Bahamas. At 48 hours

About what Lattitude is that motion at?

Just below grand bahama

Oh man, they really, really don't need that. There probably isn't many places for those folks to go if they are still on the island.

[Aric Dunn]

6z out to 67 hrs

[GCANE]

Low level, looks like a wave.
Mid level (500mb) , weak closed low likely under the highest cirrus.

[Aric Dunn]

6z recurves just before coming into cape Canaveral as a close to a minimal hurricane.. then deepens fast as it pulls away.

[TallyTracker]

6z out to 67 hrs

https://i.ibb.co/yqfMc23/20190912-083853.gif

Even if weak, that would be a devastating track for the Abacos and Grand Bahama...

[wxman57]

This is what I see this morning, there's a broad circulation W of the deep convection, which will reform or move north while weak following the convection, once it becomes influenced by the ridge over the TN river valley it will track through the northern Bahamas, unfortunately, what happens after that is still up in the air, but the trend is that it will not get into GOM, that's for sure, whether it will get to FL or stay away from FL is still 50/50. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/IrW8v5B.jpg

First and foremost, at this point now, I think the chance of seeing this emerge in the GOM is very very slim now.

I will hedge my bet that we will see almost unfortunately something similar to Dorian's path . My heart breaks in me saying this as it will take a path into the NW Bahamas. Godspeed to our neighbors down there!!

Once again, we will have another close watch with how close the center of the cyclone will get to FL, GA or up along the SE Atlantic Coast. It is yet another very complex pattern/ set-up as was the case with Dorian.

Wow, it is like Groundhog Day again

I'm tending to agree. We've seen it over and over again. Persistent SW-W wind shear results in the storm (or potential storm) developing & tracking farther east. I wish I didn't have to make a 7-day forecast for this one. I think it'll remain east of Florida. It'll be interesting to see what the NHC does. Their guidelines say PTC advisories should be issued now. Will they forecast a strong hurricane threatening the Carolinas at day 5 on their initial advisory? If I were them, I'd wait to see the 12Z model runs before committing to a track. Wish I had that luxury...

[jlauderdal]

we have a squall moving through right now that is more than we ever received with dorian, stiff easterly flow the last few days

[GCANE]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5-1.GIF

Steering intensity is dropping rapidly here.
This IMHO is significant.
When I look at WV Imagery zoomed out, this looks big.
There is a very large 500mb vort with lots of heavy convection in it.
Meaning that latent heating is occurring over a large area at mid-level, creating a big warm core.
If this brews here a couple days without moving much and convection keeps firing, we will be dealing with a very large and very warm core.

[Nuno]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5-1.GIF

Steering intensity is dropping rapidly here.
This IMHO is significant.
When I look at WV Imagery zoomed out, this looks big.
There is a very large 500mb vort with lots of heavy convection in it.
Meaning that latent heating is occurring over a large area at mid-level, creating a big warm core.
If this brews here a couple days without moving much and convection keeps firing, we will be dealing with a very large and very warm core.

Wouldn't be surprised if it continues to slow on its approach through the Bahamas. Will be interesting to see the 12z Euro and GFS timeframe.

[tailgater]

It seems we have a low level center next to eastern Cuban coast and a developing mid level low in the southeastern/ eastern Bahamas which hopefully will curtail development of either until they have more separation between them or one consumes the other.

[northjaxpro]

This is what I see this morning, there's a broad circulation W of the deep convection, which will reform or move north while weak following the convection, once it becomes influenced by the ridge over the TN river valley it will track through the northern Bahamas, unfortunately, what happens after that is still up in the air, but the trend is that it will not get into GOM, that's for sure, whether it will get to FL or stay away from FL is still 50/50. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/IrW8v5B.jpg

First and foremost, at this point now, I think the chance of seeing this emerge in the GOM is very very slim now.

I will hedge my bet that we will see almost unfortunately something similar to Dorian's path . My heart breaks in me saying this as it will take a path into the NW Bahamas. Godspeed to our neighbors down there!!

Once again, we will have another close watch with how close the center of the cyclone will get to FL, GA or up along the SE Atlantic Coast. It is yet another very complex pattern/ set-up as was the case with Dorian.

Wow, it is like Groundhog Day again

I'm tending to agree. We've seen it over and over again. Persistent SW-W wind shear results in the storm (or potential storm) developing & tracking farther east. I wish I didn't have to make a 7-day forecast for this one. I think it'll remain east of Florida. It'll be interesting to see what the NHC does. Their guidelines say PTC advisories should be issued now. Will they forecast a strong hurricane threatening the Carolinas at day 5 on their initial advisory? If I were them, I'd wait to see the 12Z model runs before committing to a track. Wish I had that luxury...

Yes 57, I totally agree with you on what you stated as well. My thinking on this exactly. There is absolute sadness with me with this analysis, especially with the Bahamas being likely impaced by another tropical cyclone in consecutive weeks!!

[GCANE]

Two towers firing N and SE of Crooked Island
Both moving NW to SE.
This may be an indication where the warm core is forming.

[SFLcane]

i am in pompano, you get hit with that big squall?

Yes we sure did some lighting to 20-25mph winds

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It appears that shear from the ULL over the gulf is forcing convection to concentrate further east with 95L. This would lend support to the idea of 95L taking a track just east of Florida, however there is a ton of uncertainty. A track east of Florida means much less rain especially for western Florida. However, the presence of 95L will create a pressure gradient and gusty winds across Florida. Yesterday it was windy and sunny, an interesting combo as the low level winds continued to blow in air that was not supportive of thunderstorms. A slug of moisture out ahead of and west of 95L looks to reach Florida, so I think the peninsula should get at least one round of heavy rain perhaps more depending on the track.

[ronjon]

Looks like the low level center is displaced to the west of the heavy convection this morning. I think the mid-level center is rotating with the heavy convection to the east. Now perhaps a new low level center will form under the heavy convection. we won't know until we get a plane in there to check it out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=95L&product=vis

[EquusStorm]

Not liking the east trend, we desperately need rain in the central Gulf and the Bahamas up into the Carolinas absolutely don't

[ava_ati]

Not liking the east trend, we desperately need rain in the central Gulf and the Bahamas up into the Carolinas absolutely don't

Florida is pretty dry as well, up here in Jax/St. Augustine we are very dry in the wake of Dorian, another cyclone going to the east will only prolong the dry spell. Definitely don't want a strong storm to hit us but it giving us 5 or so inches of rain wouldn't hurt.