ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[DioBrando]

That's likely a cat4 - 944mb

Y I K E S

[northjaxpro]

Really explodes in intensity in the Gulf Stream Current in that image. Also, looks like it is stalled by a Blocking High off the NC Coast.

[Cpv17]

That's likely a cat4 - 944mb

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019091212/ecmwf_ow850_watl_8.png

Y I K E S

There goes your RI you were talking about. Highly uncertain at this time though.

[chaser1]

Interestingly, with the ICON, UKmet, and to some extent EURO solutions, 95L becomes so strong and so slow moving, that we may have to begin to integrate its movement with how future 96L evolves.

In other words, 95L may very well be the deciding factor in where next week's system ends up, as well.

True, at least potentially. That would tie in with some semblance of a general "Bahamas recurve" pattern that this year is displaying. In some conversation a couple days ago I mentioned that I don't see any new MDR or Central Atlantic tropical systems threatening Florida nearly as much as the potential risk to the Bahanas or Eastern U.S. seaboard (Carolina's northward). If something new approaches from the east, I think it'll have to pass south of Hispsnola to possibly impact Florida or the N. GOM.

[AtlanticWind]

Not completly buying the Euro solution yet, keeping the system around for 8+ days
Possible but we shall see

[Hurricaneman]

Not completly buying the Euro solution yet, keeping the system around for 8+ days
Possible but we shall see

The thing is the Euro has been pretty consistent but is it possible this run landfalls similar to Bob in 1991 but goes ENE between 192 and 216

[N2FSU]

12z Euro shifted west closer to Florida before turning north.
Images are valid for Sunday 8am:



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[Hurricaneman]

12z Euro shifted west closer to Florida before turning north.
Images are valid for Sunday 8am:
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190912/c4ec083fa9856b80efc9ad08c74eb21c.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190912/eeeffedcaa9cb7e75ab8457e75c755f8.jpg


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The first 5 days are usually not far off especially on the Euro as far as track so the Carolinas and maybe Virginia need to stay vigilant and Southern New England and Long Island need to also keep an eye out since some of the models are pointing that way especially the Euro

[Stormcenter]

EURO run is way out there IMO especially since
we have nothing right now.

[chris_fit]

EURO run is way out there IMO especially since
we have nothing right now.

I agree - actually both the GFS and EURO both seem really out there, bud judging by the current conditions out there, inclined to lean more towards the GFS (which is NOT normally the case)

[Hurricaneman]

EURO run is way out there IMO especially since
we have nothing right now.

I agree - actually both the GFS and EURO both seem really out there, bud judging by the current conditions out there, inclined to lean more towards the GFS (which is NOT normally the case)

I noticed 3 vortices and the GFS is keying in on the one near Crooked Island while the Euro is keying on the one under the convection so it really is an impossible setup to key on until there is just one vorticity

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS early maps suggest there should be a lot of OTS members but with probably a nontrivial minority being possibly dangerous due to not being fully OTS/coming back onshore. Looks a touch E of the 6Z and a touch W of but similar to the 0Z.

[p1nheadlarry]

I don't get it!

HOW can they over- or underestimate the ridging by so much as to make a couple hundred mile error like that?!?

Isn't the development of ridging a pretty straightforward thing? I mean, the jet stream and the associated "fronts" pretty much make it obvious where a HIGH or LOW pressure system is and where it will be going, don't they?

You can see on satellite and surface where the upper and lower fronts and troughs and highs are, but the 500MB isn't so easy to see on satellite or any visual data (hence why the soundings are used) and it seems like these tricky cases, it's the mid-level highs and lows that the models are struggling with so much.

And, the steering of a TC results from the sum of all steering forces at all levels of the atmosphere. Also, the depth (or should I say height) of the storm's circulation can determine whether high, mid or low level steering currents have the most influence.

Right, but 95L is a weak elongated system. It's not going to be steered by upper level winds.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS early maps suggest there should be a lot of OTS members but with probably a nontrivial minority being possibly dangerous due to not being fully OTS/coming back onshore. Looks a touch E of the 6Z and a touch W of but similar to the 0Z.

Confirmed: Good news. Many OTS but some hanging around and a couple coming back to shore so far.

[ronjon]

LOL - look at the model spread just 48 hours out! No real change from this mornings 00z suite.

Euro, UKMET, ICON - strong storm moving north up the east coast or offshore the east coast of Florida
GFS, Legacy, NAM, NAVGEM - weak low pressure moving W-NW skirting the straits or S FL into the eastern GOM toward the northern gulf coast
CMC, HWRF - moving NW up through the spine of Florida as a tropical storm

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS early maps suggest there should be a lot of OTS members but with probably a nontrivial minority being possibly dangerous due to not being fully OTS/coming back onshore. Looks a touch E of the 6Z and a touch W of but similar to the 0Z.

Confirmed: Good news. Many OTS but some hanging around and a couple coming back to shore so far.

Final verdict on this run: most 12Z EPS OTS but ~25% problematic for the SE US (FL-NC) with ~2/3 of the 25% stopping and coming back west under the ridge into N FL/GA/SC. Some also threaten or even hit NE US.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1172241517387354112

[hurricaneCW]

I do think the east coast is under threat from this. There's a huge ridge progged to build over the system that would send it north and possibly back west towards the coast.

[Blown Away]

18z shifted West, landfall in Treasure Coast then up the Florida peninsula.

[toad strangler]

18z shifted West, landfall in Treasure Coast then up the Florida peninsula.

18z what