ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

So were under a TS watch in treasure coast now..

Yes, back to denver

My run Away fund has been depleted for this season, if I have to run again it will probably be to Tampa

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting that the local forecast has winds sat afternoon sustained 40+mph gust over 60mph


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... =graphical

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting that the local forecast has winds sat afternoon sustained 40+mph gust over 60mph


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... =graphical

Could very easily change as I think it could stay offshore causing for lesser effects. I am not going to give any all clears even if above your latitude because some model ensembles are doing a loop back to Florida

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting that the local forecast has winds sat afternoon sustained 40+mph gust over 60mph


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... =graphical

Could very easily change as I think it could stay offshore causing for lesser effects. I am not going to give any all clears even if above your latitude because some model ensembles are doing a loop back to Florida

I think the gfs is still a plausible option too with no real development and it keeps heading west but we won’t really know anything until it’s better developed. But it’s pretty windy here now. The airport in Stuart has sustained winds at 22mph gusts to 30mph and it’s pouring again.

[sponger]

Sure am glad that was not the Dorian track.

[Aric Dunn]

satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

[sponger]

satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif

And so it begins......

[Aric Dunn]

satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif

And so it begins......

B5

[chaser1]

satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif

And so it begins......

I don't know guys, i'm just not quite seeing on satellite what you're seeing on radar

[Aric Dunn]

satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif

And so it begins......

I don't know guys, i'm just not quite seeing on satellite what you're seeing on radar

Loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

[Hammy]

And so it begins......

I don't know guys, i'm just not quite seeing on satellite what you're seeing on radar

Loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

https://i.ibb.co/r4FrJjz/Capture.png

Band in the middle looks like it's starting to come around from the west on satellite, so this is really closing off in the last 30 minutes or so.

[LarryWx]

satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif

If it forms there, where is this in relation to the models’ location for this time?

[Aric Dunn]

satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif

If it forms there, where is this in relation to the models’ location for this time?

looks dead on with the 00z euro at the moment..

[Aric Dunn]

Its going to get sheared multiple times until tomorrow evening. but its definitely there now. maybe even get multiple vorts.

[sponger]

NC and points north better hope this hits Florida first. A miss will bring much greater problems if it makes it ashore later. Once we get get a closed circulation and the NOAA sounding data, we will have a much better handle on likely track.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro has shifted right. mostly becasue 95l has not ben moving so the ridge shifts same time but 95l never makes it as far west.

[sponger]

A fairly significant change for the Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

A fairly significant change for the Euro.

The longer this sits still the more we will likely see stalls and loops east of florida.

[LarryWx]

Euro has shifted right. mostly becasue 95l has not ben moving so the ridge shifts same time but 95l never makes it as far west.

So, with 0Z Euro initialization verifying well and that run likely staying OTS from the US, the betting odds are rising significantly for the OTS option.

[LarryWx]

Who would have thought all of those early ICON runs with a TC just E of FL and well east of the then model consensus would now have an excellent chance to verify way too far west?! This kind of stuff is so fascinating and makes tracking these enjoyable because they are such a challenge.