ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: RE: Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#461 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:02 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:So were under a TS watch in treasure coast now..
Yes, back to denver


My run Away fund has been depleted for this season, if I have to run again it will probably be to Tampa
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#462 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:05 pm

Interesting that the local forecast has winds sat afternoon sustained 40+mph gust over 60mph


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... =graphical
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#463 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:13 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Interesting that the local forecast has winds sat afternoon sustained 40+mph gust over 60mph


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... =graphical

Could very easily change as I think it could stay offshore causing for lesser effects. I am not going to give any all clears even if above your latitude because some model ensembles are doing a loop back to Florida
1 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#464 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:16 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Interesting that the local forecast has winds sat afternoon sustained 40+mph gust over 60mph


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... =graphical

Could very easily change as I think it could stay offshore causing for lesser effects. I am not going to give any all clears even if above your latitude because some model ensembles are doing a loop back to Florida


I think the gfs is still a plausible option too with no real development and it keeps heading west but we won’t really know anything until it’s better developed. But it’s pretty windy here now. The airport in Stuart has sustained winds at 22mph gusts to 30mph and it’s pouring again.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#465 Postby sponger » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:49 pm

Sure am glad that was not the Dorian track.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#466 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:15 am

satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

Image
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#467 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:21 am

Aric Dunn wrote:satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif


And so it begins......
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#468 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:25 am

sponger wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif


And so it begins......


B5 :P
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#469 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:27 am

sponger wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif


And so it begins......


I don't know guys, i'm just not quite seeing on satellite what you're seeing on radar
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#470 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:33 am

chaser1 wrote:
sponger wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif


And so it begins......


I don't know guys, i'm just not quite seeing on satellite what you're seeing on radar


Loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#471 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:40 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
sponger wrote:
And so it begins......


I don't know guys, i'm just not quite seeing on satellite what you're seeing on radar


Loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

https://i.ibb.co/r4FrJjz/Capture.png


Band in the middle looks like it's starting to come around from the west on satellite, so this is really closing off in the last 30 minutes or so.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#472 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:42 am

Aric Dunn wrote:satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif


If it forms there, where is this in relation to the models’ location for this time?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#473 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:44 am

LarryWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:satellite and radar are now showing what is almost certainly the well defined.

off we go... Should have Humberto in the morning or midday.

https://i.ibb.co/wsNX6vB/16.gif


If it forms there, where is this in relation to the models’ location for this time?


looks dead on with the 00z euro at the moment..

Image
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#474 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:47 am

Its going to get sheared multiple times until tomorrow evening. but its definitely there now. maybe even get multiple vorts.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#475 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:02 am

NC and points north better hope this hits Florida first. A miss will bring much greater problems if it makes it ashore later. Once we get get a closed circulation and the NOAA sounding data, we will have a much better handle on likely track.
Last edited by sponger on Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#476 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:03 am

Euro has shifted right. mostly becasue 95l has not ben moving so the ridge shifts same time but 95l never makes it as far west.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#477 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:08 am

A fairly significant change for the Euro.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#478 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:09 am

sponger wrote:A fairly significant change for the Euro.


The longer this sits still the more we will likely see stalls and loops east of florida.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#479 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:10 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Euro has shifted right. mostly becasue 95l has not ben moving so the ridge shifts same time but 95l never makes it as far west.


So, with 0Z Euro initialization verifying well and that run likely staying OTS from the US, the betting odds are rising significantly for the OTS option.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#480 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:26 am

Who would have thought all of those early ICON runs with a TC just E of FL and well east of the then model consensus would now have an excellent chance to verify way too far west?! This kind of stuff is so fascinating and makes tracking these enjoyable because they are such a challenge.
5 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests