Tropical wave in the Central Atlantic (Is INVEST 99L)

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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#21 Postby stormzilla » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:34 am

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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#22 Postby stormzilla » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:37 am

All the models seem to be on board with this one :double:
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:01 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Some development of this system is possible while the system
approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves
across the southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#24 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:47 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

A tropical wave located about 850 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#25 Postby AJC3 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:19 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A tropical wave located almost 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#26 Postby ouragans » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:34 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#27 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:10 am

Gonna be lots of recurves this year with all the storms developing in the East Atlantic
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#28 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:12 am

The 0Z CMC has this become a TC before crossing Hispaniola. It then weakens but later restrengthens in the FL Straits near the end of the 10 day run.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#29 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:30 am

12Z GFS with a recurve in the Central Atlantic
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#30 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:48 am

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS with a recurve in the Central Atlantic


Makes perfect sense to me certainly not looking for any AEW tracking much further west in Oct. That door is almost closed now.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#31 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:13 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS with a recurve in the Central Atlantic


Makes perfect sense to me certainly not looking for any AEW tracking much further west in Oct. That door is almost closed now.

Hope so. One of the most devastating hurricanes to hit Barbados and much of the Eastern Caribbean occurred in October 1780. In fact, speaking under correction, it was the most devastating hurricane ever recorded in this region.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#32 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:37 pm

Thankfully that dangerous ridging that several on here were claiming would show up in September never panned out. Of course we had Dorian scare us all along the East Coast but overall the U.S. has fared well in terms of formidable hurricane hits.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:38 pm

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SYSTEM NEAR 10.5N 56.0W FOR 21/1800Z.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#34 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:41 pm

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Some development of this system is possible while the system
approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across
the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


Image
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#35 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:16 pm

12Z HWRF develops this system and tracks it toward western PR.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#36 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:38 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Thankfully that dangerous ridging that several on here were claiming would show up in September never panned out. Of course we had Dorian scare us all along the East Coast but overall the U.S. has fared well in terms of formidable hurricane hits.


96 and 94 both would have been big threats if they had not died. Ridging did show up the hurricanes just did not.
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Re: Tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands

#37 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 19, 2019 5:28 pm

What's that convection building along 50W, southeast of Jerry, all about? It's not a tropical wave, and it's too far west of the wave discussed in this thread to be associated with that. Could it just be one of Jerry's feeder bands? Or is it associated with this wave? Either way, it looks pretty intense.

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Re: Tropical wave in the Central Atlantic

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:20 pm

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. The
wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during
the next few days, and some development is possible while it
approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend.
Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the
wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Central Atlantic

#39 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:57 pm

SFLcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Thankfully that dangerous ridging that several on here were claiming would show up in September never panned out. Of course we had Dorian scare us all along the East Coast but overall the U.S. has fared well in terms of formidable hurricane hits.


96 and 94 both would have been big threats if they had not died. Ridging did show up the hurricanes just did not.


Those were long before the time he is talking about. People were trying to say how dangerous the high building in would be in September that would send jerry and any other threats nowhere but west towards the southern US. I think it was all based primarily on the euro which we know has a western bias and always seems to want to build in strong highs.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Central Atlantic

#40 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:56 pm

The 0zGFS seems to develop a depression around Trinidad and Tobago, even the Euro has heightened vorticity around the same area, I believe this has more like a 50/50 shot at developing into a short lived tropical cyclone
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