Tropical wave in the Central Atlantic (Is INVEST 99L)

[stormzilla]

https://i.imgur.com/SR8qw71.png

Here it is also tracking West

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=114

[stormzilla]

All the models seem to be on board with this one

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Some development of this system is possible while the system
approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves
across the southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

A tropical wave located about 850 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A tropical wave located almost 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[ouragans]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[ConvergenceZone]

Gonna be lots of recurves this year with all the storms developing in the East Atlantic

[LarryWx]

The 0Z CMC has this become a TC before crossing Hispaniola. It then weakens but later restrengthens in the FL Straits near the end of the 10 day run.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with a recurve in the Central Atlantic

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS with a recurve in the Central Atlantic

Makes perfect sense to me certainly not looking for any AEW tracking much further west in Oct. That door is almost closed now.

[abajan]

12Z GFS with a recurve in the Central Atlantic

Makes perfect sense to me certainly not looking for any AEW tracking much further west in Oct. That door is almost closed now.

Hope so. One of the most devastating hurricanes to hit Barbados and much of the Eastern Caribbean occurred in October 1780. In fact, speaking under correction, it was the most devastating hurricane ever recorded in this region.

[TheStormExpert]

Thankfully that dangerous ridging that several on here were claiming would show up in September never panned out. Of course we had Dorian scare us all along the East Coast but overall the U.S. has fared well in terms of formidable hurricane hits.

[cycloneye]

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SYSTEM NEAR 10.5N 56.0W FOR 21/1800Z.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Some development of this system is possible while the system
approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across
the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12Z HWRF develops this system and tracks it toward western PR.

[SFLcane]

Thankfully that dangerous ridging that several on here were claiming would show up in September never panned out. Of course we had Dorian scare us all along the East Coast but overall the U.S. has fared well in terms of formidable hurricane hits.

96 and 94 both would have been big threats if they had not died. Ridging did show up the hurricanes just did not.

[abajan]

What's that convection building along 50W, southeast of Jerry, all about? It's not a tropical wave, and it's too far west of the wave discussed in this thread to be associated with that. Could it just be one of Jerry's feeder bands? Or is it associated with this wave? Either way, it looks pretty intense.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. The
wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during
the next few days, and some development is possible while it
approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend.
Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the
wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thankfully that dangerous ridging that several on here were claiming would show up in September never panned out. Of course we had Dorian scare us all along the East Coast but overall the U.S. has fared well in terms of formidable hurricane hits.

96 and 94 both would have been big threats if they had not died. Ridging did show up the hurricanes just did not.

Those were long before the time he is talking about. People were trying to say how dangerous the high building in would be in September that would send jerry and any other threats nowhere but west towards the southern US. I think it was all based primarily on the euro which we know has a western bias and always seems to want to build in strong highs.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to develop a depression around Trinidad and Tobago, even the Euro has heightened vorticity around the same area, I believe this has more like a 50/50 shot at developing into a short lived tropical cyclone