ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#421 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:28 am

NDG wrote:Recon finds the windshift SE of last fix, pressure is higher.

https://i.imgur.com/edyjFgv.png


It wont be too much longer until the center in the convection takes over. Always takes a little time.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#422 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:28 am

Center reformation doesn't happen on a whim, so I'm not convinced yet either. But one thing is for sure, the shear has slackened way off, and if it can get its act together it should strengthen considerably.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#423 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:29 am

Frank2 wrote:Fewer models showing any significant westward turn than yesterday - apparently enough of a trough ahead of the next high to kick out both Jerry and Karen...


Could be indeed the case...might just loop and head out to sea.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#424 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:31 am

More then likely it's a strung out mess in southerly flow like every model shows.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#425 Postby Fountainguy97 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:36 am

Radar pretty much confirms the center is reorganizing south in the convection. You can clearly see the wind shift on velocity scans as the center wraps up under convection.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#426 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:38 am

SE

Image
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#427 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:40 am

So what I take out of the latest pass by the recon is that the COC is elongated SW to NE, where they found the wind shift now having the same surface pressure of where the MLC is. So the old LLC is weakening and definitely a new LLC is reforming further south closer to the MLC.
IMO.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#428 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:48 am

One thing that has helped Karen survive yesterday's strong NE shear and dry air is that the low level easterly jet is non existent right now across the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#429 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:48 am

Image
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#430 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:49 am

NDG wrote:So what I take out of the latest pass by the recon is that the COC is elongated SW to NE, where they found the wind shift now having the same surface pressure of where the MLC is. So the old LLC is weakening and definitely a new LLC is reforming further south closer to the MLC.
IMO.


Wouldn't a SE reformation mean the possibility of tracking more over Puerto Rico than before?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#431 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:54 am

SoupBone wrote:
NDG wrote:So what I take out of the latest pass by the recon is that the COC is elongated SW to NE, where they found the wind shift now having the same surface pressure of where the MLC is. So the old LLC is weakening and definitely a new LLC is reforming further south closer to the MLC.
IMO.


Wouldn't a SE reformation mean the possibility of tracking more over Puerto Rico than before?


Actually the reformation we are looking at is further south not SE so yes a track more over P.R. which could disrupt it.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#432 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:56 am

That's my interpretation of it.

Image
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#433 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:56 am

Quick question. Would a center reformation further south also mean the track north would also be slower and reduce the potential interaction with Jerry....leading to a more westward track like what the Euro is showing?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#434 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:58 am




I don't think your pictures show properly... they are very small and not clickable - at least for me, using Chrome.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#435 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:58 am

Winds from the SW on the west side...That's a no on center reformation.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#436 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:07 am

SFLcane wrote:Winds from the SW on the west side...That's a no on center reformation.


:?:
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#437 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:08 am

SFLcane wrote:Winds from the SW on the west side...That's a no on center reformation.


Wrong, nothing but NNW & NW winds on the west side, no SW winds yet.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#438 Postby Nuno » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:10 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Quick question. Would a center reformation further south also mean the track north would also be slower and reduce the potential interaction with Jerry....leading to a more westward track like what the Euro is showing?


Potentially, but there's still Puerto Rico to interact with which could also disrupt Karen's circulation and present issues in the short term.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#439 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:11 am

SFLcane wrote:That's my interpretation of it.

https://i.imgur.com/EUNX2Zw.jpg


Looking how the feeder band is evolving, I think this may be correct.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#440 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:12 am

NDG wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Winds from the SW on the west side...That's a no on center reformation.


Wrong, nothing but NNW & NW winds on the west side, no SW winds yet.


From what i can tell the winds show no sign of the center re-forming
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