ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#481 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:16 am

wxman57 wrote:Obs across the islands suggest that Karen is closer to a tropical wave than a tropical storm. Looks like a trof axis cutting across PR:

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen8.JPG


You spoke too soon before the latest pass 8-)
8 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#482 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:21 am

Radar looks mean....

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#483 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:21 am

Where recon found the new LLC.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#484 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:21 am

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Obs across the islands suggest that Karen is closer to a tropical wave than a tropical storm. Looks like a trof axis cutting across PR:

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen8.JPG


You spoke too soon before the latest pass 8-)

The 25kt+ westerlies the first time recon sampled the southern quadrant was probably a clue too.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#485 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:22 am

NDG wrote:No doubt now that Karen is a Tropical Storm.

160630 3000N 06815W 8430 01498 0024 +160 +113 238042 043 035 002 00
160700 3001N 06817W 8430 01497 0020 +165 +113 239041 042 036 001 00
160730 3002N 06818W 8432 01494 0018 +166 +112 238041 043 036 001 00
160800 3003N 06819W 8429 01494 0017 +163 +110 238044 044 035 001 00
160830 3004N 06820W 8429 01493 0018 +160 +109 234046 048 036 003 00
160900 3005N 06822W 8429 01494 0018 +156 +112 228045 046 037 000 00
160930 3007N 06823W 8429 01490 0015 +155 +114 228047 048 036 000 00
161000 3008N 06824W 8430 01487 0010 +159 +114 225045 047 036 001 00


That SFMR is from TS Jerry. Oops! Still no hard evidence of TS winds at the surface in Karen. FL winds peaked at 39 kts. Maybe 30 kts.
3 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#486 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:24 am

NDG wrote:No doubt now that Karen is a Tropical Storm.

160630 3000N 06815W 8430 01498 0024 +160 +113 238042 043 035 002 00
160700 3001N 06817W 8430 01497 0020 +165 +113 239041 042 036 001 00
160730 3002N 06818W 8432 01494 0018 +166 +112 238041 043 036 001 00
160800 3003N 06819W 8429 01494 0017 +163 +110 238044 044 035 001 00
160830 3004N 06820W 8429 01493 0018 +160 +109 234046 048 036 003 00
160900 3005N 06822W 8429 01494 0018 +156 +112 228045 046 037 000 00
160930 3007N 06823W 8429 01490 0015 +155 +114 228047 048 036 000 00
161000 3008N 06824W 8430 01487 0010 +159 +114 225045 047 036 001 00

Silly goose, that's TS Jerry.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#487 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:25 am

Recon is giving live obs. Not sure why some are giving surface obs declaring Karen is a trough
7 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#488 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:25 am

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 kts (55.2 mph)

Definitely putting up a fight
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#489 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:29 am

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:No doubt now that Karen is a Tropical Storm.

160630 3000N 06815W 8430 01498 0024 +160 +113 238042 043 035 002 00
160700 3001N 06817W 8430 01497 0020 +165 +113 239041 042 036 001 00
160730 3002N 06818W 8432 01494 0018 +166 +112 238041 043 036 001 00
160800 3003N 06819W 8429 01494 0017 +163 +110 238044 044 035 001 00
160830 3004N 06820W 8429 01493 0018 +160 +109 234046 048 036 003 00
160900 3005N 06822W 8429 01494 0018 +156 +112 228045 046 037 000 00
160930 3007N 06823W 8429 01490 0015 +155 +114 228047 048 036 000 00
161000 3008N 06824W 8430 01487 0010 +159 +114 225045 047 036 001 00


That SFMR is from TS Jerry. Oops! Still no hard evidence of TS winds at the surface in Karen. FL winds peaked at 39 kts. Maybe 30 kts.


Ooops, the time stamp confused me, I thought it was the latitude, lol.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
USVIKimmie
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:12 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#490 Postby USVIKimmie » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:32 am

SeaBrz_FL wrote:Holy Hell -- 6.3 Earthquake hit Puerto Rico

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/new ... uerto-rico

Last night. At least 4 Lesser after that. Not unusual for the region. They’re usually only half that.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1889
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#491 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:33 am

Big difference from this time yesterday.
Barely a T.D
Now looks like a legit T.S.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#492 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:38 am

It can be clearly seen how the LLC dives down underneath the convection.

Image
1 likes   
Top
Ucfkid
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:11 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#493 Postby Ucfkid » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:40 am

If NHC says it will make a hard left I believe them. They are hardly wrong.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneMaster_PR
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 6:23 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#494 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:45 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#495 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:45 am

Latest VDM confirms the LLCs new location, right by the deep convection!!!!!! It will now start intensifying, IMO.

Image
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#496 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:46 am

Is it me or is Karen organizing more than models have been showing?
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#497 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:47 am

Rain rate up to 75 mm/hr!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#498 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:48 am

Helluva high-helicity tower that just exploded.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
La Sirena
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 307
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:02 pm
Location: Formerly of the Keys, back home in East TN

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#499 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:49 am

GCANE wrote:Helluva high-helicity tower that just exploded.

I just saw that happen! :eek:
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#500 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:50 am

Doesn't look like a trough to me ;)
11 likes   
Michael
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests