ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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NDG
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#481 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:16 am

wxman57 wrote:Obs across the islands suggest that Karen is closer to a tropical wave than a tropical storm. Looks like a trof axis cutting across PR:

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen8.JPG


You spoke too soon before the latest pass 8-)
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#482 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:21 am

Radar looks mean....

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#483 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:21 am

Where recon found the new LLC.

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#484 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:21 am

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Obs across the islands suggest that Karen is closer to a tropical wave than a tropical storm. Looks like a trof axis cutting across PR:

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen8.JPG


You spoke too soon before the latest pass 8-)

The 25kt+ westerlies the first time recon sampled the southern quadrant was probably a clue too.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#485 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:22 am

NDG wrote:No doubt now that Karen is a Tropical Storm.

160630 3000N 06815W 8430 01498 0024 +160 +113 238042 043 035 002 00
160700 3001N 06817W 8430 01497 0020 +165 +113 239041 042 036 001 00
160730 3002N 06818W 8432 01494 0018 +166 +112 238041 043 036 001 00
160800 3003N 06819W 8429 01494 0017 +163 +110 238044 044 035 001 00
160830 3004N 06820W 8429 01493 0018 +160 +109 234046 048 036 003 00
160900 3005N 06822W 8429 01494 0018 +156 +112 228045 046 037 000 00
160930 3007N 06823W 8429 01490 0015 +155 +114 228047 048 036 000 00
161000 3008N 06824W 8430 01487 0010 +159 +114 225045 047 036 001 00


That SFMR is from TS Jerry. Oops! Still no hard evidence of TS winds at the surface in Karen. FL winds peaked at 39 kts. Maybe 30 kts.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#486 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:24 am

NDG wrote:No doubt now that Karen is a Tropical Storm.

160630 3000N 06815W 8430 01498 0024 +160 +113 238042 043 035 002 00
160700 3001N 06817W 8430 01497 0020 +165 +113 239041 042 036 001 00
160730 3002N 06818W 8432 01494 0018 +166 +112 238041 043 036 001 00
160800 3003N 06819W 8429 01494 0017 +163 +110 238044 044 035 001 00
160830 3004N 06820W 8429 01493 0018 +160 +109 234046 048 036 003 00
160900 3005N 06822W 8429 01494 0018 +156 +112 228045 046 037 000 00
160930 3007N 06823W 8429 01490 0015 +155 +114 228047 048 036 000 00
161000 3008N 06824W 8430 01487 0010 +159 +114 225045 047 036 001 00

Silly goose, that's TS Jerry.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#487 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:25 am

Recon is giving live obs. Not sure why some are giving surface obs declaring Karen is a trough
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#488 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:25 am

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 kts (55.2 mph)

Definitely putting up a fight
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#489 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:29 am

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:No doubt now that Karen is a Tropical Storm.

160630 3000N 06815W 8430 01498 0024 +160 +113 238042 043 035 002 00
160700 3001N 06817W 8430 01497 0020 +165 +113 239041 042 036 001 00
160730 3002N 06818W 8432 01494 0018 +166 +112 238041 043 036 001 00
160800 3003N 06819W 8429 01494 0017 +163 +110 238044 044 035 001 00
160830 3004N 06820W 8429 01493 0018 +160 +109 234046 048 036 003 00
160900 3005N 06822W 8429 01494 0018 +156 +112 228045 046 037 000 00
160930 3007N 06823W 8429 01490 0015 +155 +114 228047 048 036 000 00
161000 3008N 06824W 8430 01487 0010 +159 +114 225045 047 036 001 00


That SFMR is from TS Jerry. Oops! Still no hard evidence of TS winds at the surface in Karen. FL winds peaked at 39 kts. Maybe 30 kts.


Ooops, the time stamp confused me, I thought it was the latitude, lol.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#490 Postby USVIKimmie » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:32 am

SeaBrz_FL wrote:Holy Hell -- 6.3 Earthquake hit Puerto Rico

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/new ... uerto-rico

Last night. At least 4 Lesser after that. Not unusual for the region. They’re usually only half that.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#491 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:33 am

Big difference from this time yesterday.
Barely a T.D
Now looks like a legit T.S.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#492 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:38 am

It can be clearly seen how the LLC dives down underneath the convection.

Image
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#493 Postby Ucfkid » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:40 am

If NHC says it will make a hard left I believe them. They are hardly wrong.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#494 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:45 am

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#495 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:45 am

Latest VDM confirms the LLCs new location, right by the deep convection!!!!!! It will now start intensifying, IMO.

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#496 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:46 am

Is it me or is Karen organizing more than models have been showing?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#497 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:47 am

Rain rate up to 75 mm/hr!
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#498 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:48 am

Helluva high-helicity tower that just exploded.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#499 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:49 am

GCANE wrote:Helluva high-helicity tower that just exploded.

I just saw that happen! :eek:
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#500 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:50 am

Doesn't look like a trough to me ;)
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