ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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rbaker55
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#821 Postby rbaker55 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:27 pm

visible satellite shows llc on the eastern envelope of convection and then clouded over in last few frames.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#822 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:28 pm

Bones has just about seen enough. A swirl of stratus does not even a depression make... I can't see how the NHC could call this a TS shortly (and predict it will become a 65 mph TS). Karen appears to be history.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#823 Postby psyclone » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:33 pm

gonna be tough to keep this anything other than a remnant low. Next!
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#824 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:35 pm

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#825 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:39 pm

Finally they lowered the 5-day forecast to maximum of 45 mph.

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER... ...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 22.9°N 64.3°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#826 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:42 pm

wx98 wrote:Finally they lowered the 5-day forecast to maximum of 45 mph.

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER... ...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 22.9°N 64.3°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH


And that's still too generous. Plane couldn't find any TS winds but they assume there must be TS winds somewhere? I think this is a way to gradually ease out of the 55kt forecast from the past few advisories. Note how they also slowed it way down after the loop. Models now strongly indicate there won't be much left after the loop, and what's there won't move anywhere fast. I think the Bahamas & Florida will be just fine.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#827 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:
wx98 wrote:Finally they lowered the 5-day forecast to maximum of 45 mph.

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER... ...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 22.9°N 64.3°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH


And that's still too generous. Plane couldn't find any TS winds but they assume there must be TS winds somewhere? I think this is a way to gradually ease out of the 55kt forecast from the past few advisories.


They said that the intensity forecast could be adjusted even lower based on even less support from dynamical models, and that there is a possibility it just becomes completely post-tropical by Day 3.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#828 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:45 pm

wx98 wrote:They said that the intensity forecast could be adjusted even lower based on even less support from dynamical models, and that there is a possibility it just becomes completely post-tropical by Day 3.


Or by day 1... ;-)
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#829 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:
wx98 wrote:They said that the intensity forecast could be adjusted even lower based on even less support from dynamical models, and that there is a possibility it just becomes completely post-tropical by Day 3.


Or by day 1... ;-)


Wouldn’t doubt it the way things are looking for it now.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#830 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:01 pm

As someone tweeted earlier it is now a 'tropical cloud', lol. I would modify that to call it a 'tropical cloud swirl' -Almost sounds like the name of a new ice cream flavor at the local creamery. 8-)
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#831 Postby idaknowman » Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:08 pm

I don't think it's an oversight, I think this has been happening since yesterday.

abajan wrote:
idaknowman wrote:On the last three forecast points (the westward trend), the NHC doesn't show the time and day. Why is that?

I was wondering about this myself. May have been just an oversight.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#832 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:54 pm

What happened to the favorable conditions Karen was supposed to have once she got north of the islands?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#833 Postby Jr0d » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:22 pm

Not dead yet, but circling the drain. We will see happens tonight, it could recover. There is a LLC with thunderstorm activity, and a 1004mb low. If I recall correctly Andrew pressure went up 1015mb before it bombed, though even then it still had much more intense thunderstorms firing off.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#834 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:43 pm

wx98 wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:What happened to the favorable conditions Karen was supposed to have once she got north of the islands?

The Bermuda Triangle :cheesy:

She was gonna storm the Bermuda Triangle and demand to speak to the manager there.
Ah well, that plan failed. Lol.

We have yet another female flop of 2019. :(
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#835 Postby ErinLee1979 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:28 pm

i don't know if this is a dumb question or not but why hasn't the hurricane center updated anything since 5pm?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#836 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:31 pm

ErinLee1979 wrote:i don't know if this is a dumb question or not but why hasn't the hurricane center updated anything since 5pm?


No more watches or warnings, so no intermediate advisories. The next update will be the 11 pm one.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#837 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:39 pm

Hot tower at center alert with temps as low as ~-90 C! Anyone else see this? It is near 24N, 64 W:
Image
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#838 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:41 pm

LarryWx wrote:Hot tower at center alert with temps as low as ~-90 C! Anyone else see this? It is near 24N, 64 W.


Been watching it. I'm interested to see if it sustains long enough to push outflow out to the east to clear out shear and let convection start building. There are popup showers in the swirl off to the east but they're getting sheared out pretty heavily currently.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#839 Postby tgenius » Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:47 pm

Yep we have been discussing on the discord Larry, you should come join us there :)
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#840 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:54 pm

nhc see becoming TD by monday
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