ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[rbaker55]

visible satellite shows llc on the eastern envelope of convection and then clouded over in last few frames.

[wxman57]

Bones has just about seen enough. A swirl of stratus does not even a depression make... I can't see how the NHC could call this a TS shortly (and predict it will become a 65 mph TS). Karen appears to be history.

[psyclone]

gonna be tough to keep this anything other than a remnant low. Next!

[tolakram]

live visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=991&y=1208.5

[wx98]

Finally they lowered the 5-day forecast to maximum of 45 mph.

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER... ...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 22.9°N 64.3°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

[wxman57]

Finally they lowered the 5-day forecast to maximum of 45 mph.

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER... ...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 22.9°N 64.3°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

And that's still too generous. Plane couldn't find any TS winds but they assume there must be TS winds somewhere? I think this is a way to gradually ease out of the 55kt forecast from the past few advisories. Note how they also slowed it way down after the loop. Models now strongly indicate there won't be much left after the loop, and what's there won't move anywhere fast. I think the Bahamas & Florida will be just fine.

[wx98]

Finally they lowered the 5-day forecast to maximum of 45 mph.

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER... ...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 22.9°N 64.3°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

And that's still too generous. Plane couldn't find any TS winds but they assume there must be TS winds somewhere? I think this is a way to gradually ease out of the 55kt forecast from the past few advisories.

They said that the intensity forecast could be adjusted even lower based on even less support from dynamical models, and that there is a possibility it just becomes completely post-tropical by Day 3.

[wxman57]

They said that the intensity forecast could be adjusted even lower based on even less support from dynamical models, and that there is a possibility it just becomes completely post-tropical by Day 3.

Or by day 1...

[wx98]

They said that the intensity forecast could be adjusted even lower based on even less support from dynamical models, and that there is a possibility it just becomes completely post-tropical by Day 3.

Or by day 1...

Wouldn’t doubt it the way things are looking for it now.

[otowntiger]

As someone tweeted earlier it is now a 'tropical cloud', lol. I would modify that to call it a 'tropical cloud swirl' -Almost sounds like the name of a new ice cream flavor at the local creamery.

[idaknowman]

I don't think it's an oversight, I think this has been happening since yesterday.

On the last three forecast points (the westward trend), the NHC doesn't show the time and day. Why is that?

I was wondering about this myself. May have been just an oversight.

[AnnularCane]

What happened to the favorable conditions Karen was supposed to have once she got north of the islands?

[Jr0d]

Not dead yet, but circling the drain. We will see happens tonight, it could recover. There is a LLC with thunderstorm activity, and a 1004mb low. If I recall correctly Andrew pressure went up 1015mb before it bombed, though even then it still had much more intense thunderstorms firing off.

[DioBrando]

What happened to the favorable conditions Karen was supposed to have once she got north of the islands?

The Bermuda Triangle

She was gonna storm the Bermuda Triangle and demand to speak to the manager there.
Ah well, that plan failed. Lol.

We have yet another female flop of 2019.

[ErinLee1979]

i don't know if this is a dumb question or not but why hasn't the hurricane center updated anything since 5pm?

[AnnularCane]

i don't know if this is a dumb question or not but why hasn't the hurricane center updated anything since 5pm?

No more watches or warnings, so no intermediate advisories. The next update will be the 11 pm one.

[LarryWx]

Hot tower at center alert with temps as low as ~-90 C! Anyone else see this? It is near 24N, 64 W:

[aperson]

Hot tower at center alert with temps as low as ~-90 C! Anyone else see this? It is near 24N, 64 W.

Been watching it. I'm interested to see if it sustains long enough to push outflow out to the east to clear out shear and let convection start building. There are popup showers in the swirl off to the east but they're getting sheared out pretty heavily currently.

[tgenius]

Yep we have been discussing on the discord Larry, you should come join us there

[floridasun78]

nhc see becoming TD by monday