ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

2019SEP26 235024 6.5 935.0 127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.34 -71.05 EYE 24 IR 54.1 17.03 41.14 ARCHER GOES16 43.5
mean CDO temp probably has to cool a degree or two and we'll get a cat 5 per ADT/DT

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1177382329104371713

[msbee]

Could this threaten the Azores?

[bob rulz]

Yes absolutely. It could be the strongest storm the Azores has ever seen if it hasn't become extratropical by then.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

AL, 13, 2019092700, , BEST, 0, 171N, 412W, 125, 939, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 40, 1012, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 02

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1177385785584209920

[CrazyC83]

AL, 13, 2019092700, , BEST, 0, 171N, 412W, 125, 939, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 40, 1012, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 02

I figured they would increase it, but even that seems conservative. I'd go with 135 kt personally right now leaning towards the T6.7 ADT and it seems closer to T7.0 to me.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Lorenzo makes a run for 140 knots. This is the most impressive hurricane I've ever seen this far east. Looks and acts more like a WPAC supertyphoon.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1177386578424918017

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1177388164501168129

[DioBrando]

Imagine me being a cat 5 fishie.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1177388164501168129

Not to go off-topic but I fully believe Igor became a Cat 5 at ~48W in 2010. ADT supported Category 5.

[wx98]

This is truly amazing Never thought we’d see a borderline Cat 5 way out here

[StruThiO]

lol, this is a cat 5

[CrazyC83]

It's quite rare for us to be talking a storm of this intensity - without Recon - in the Atlantic. Other than Isabel, have any cat 5's in the satellite era been deemed such based only on Dvorak numbers?

[1900hurricane]

The difference between eye temp and CDO temp (via ADT) right now is 88.66ºC, which is getting up there. An 89-90ºC difference is usually a pretty good indication of a potential category 5 in the western hemisphere. In fact, since 2003, only one western hemisphere system has ever surpassed the 90ºC difference between the two and not been rated a category 5: Hurricane Barbara earlier this year (93.14ºC difference). Dorian maxed out at an 89.52ºC differential, and the biggest was from Haiyan '13 with a 106.06ºC, just for reference.

[Highteeld]

Michael over land has a t 7.0 look to it XD

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eyeballing it I'd say Lorenzo is at 135 knots, MSLP ~935mb. And I think that's conservative.

This could be historic.

[Highteeld]

Michael over land has a t 7.0 look to it XD

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/ATL/14L.MICHAEL/ir/geo/1km_BD/20181010.1845.goes16.x.ir.BD.14LMICHAEL.x.100p0pc.jpg

Fair amount of CMG in there too. Hints of lightning in the NW eyewall. Still increasing.

[1900hurricane]

It's quite rare for us to be talking a storm of this intensity - without Recon - in the Atlantic. Other than Isabel, have any cat 5's in the satellite era been deemed such based only on Dvorak numbers?

Just Isabel, which was a very clear cut case. That's not to say that there haven't been other instances where we could have identified category 5s from the Dvorak Technique alone (systems like Gilbert '88, Mitch '98, Rita '05, Irma '17, and Michael '18 are good examples), but since the observed category 5s are mostly concentrated in the western portion of the basin where the warmer waters tend to be, it's very rare to get a candidate outside of recon range.