ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#221 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:34 pm

2019SEP26 235024 6.5 935.0 127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.34 -71.05 EYE 24 IR 54.1 17.03 41.14 ARCHER GOES16 43.5
mean CDO temp probably has to cool a degree or two and we'll get a cat 5 per ADT/DT
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#222 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:40 pm

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#223 Postby msbee » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:45 pm

Could this threaten the Azores?
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#224 Postby bob rulz » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:45 pm

Yes absolutely. It could be the strongest storm the Azores has ever seen if it hasn't become extratropical by then.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#225 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:51 pm

AL, 13, 2019092700, , BEST, 0, 171N, 412W, 125, 939, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 40, 1012, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 02
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#226 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:54 pm

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#227 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:55 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:AL, 13, 2019092700, , BEST, 0, 171N, 412W, 125, 939, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 40, 1012, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 02


I figured they would increase it, but even that seems conservative. I'd go with 135 kt personally right now leaning towards the T6.7 ADT and it seems closer to T7.0 to me.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#228 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:58 pm

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Lorenzo makes a run for 140 knots. This is the most impressive hurricane I've ever seen this far east. Looks and acts more like a WPAC supertyphoon.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#229 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:59 pm

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#230 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:04 pm

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#231 Postby DioBrando » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:04 pm

Imagine me being a cat 5 fishie.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#232 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:08 pm



Not to go off-topic but I fully believe Igor became a Cat 5 at ~48W in 2010. ADT supported Category 5.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#233 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:10 pm

This is truly amazing :D Never thought we’d see a borderline Cat 5 way out here
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#234 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:12 pm

lol, this is a cat 5

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#235 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:13 pm

It's quite rare for us to be talking a storm of this intensity - without Recon - in the Atlantic. Other than Isabel, have any cat 5's in the satellite era been deemed such based only on Dvorak numbers?
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#236 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:17 pm

The difference between eye temp and CDO temp (via ADT) right now is 88.66ºC, which is getting up there. An 89-90ºC difference is usually a pretty good indication of a potential category 5 in the western hemisphere. In fact, since 2003, only one western hemisphere system has ever surpassed the 90ºC difference between the two and not been rated a category 5: Hurricane Barbara earlier this year (93.14ºC difference). Dorian maxed out at an 89.52ºC differential, and the biggest was from Haiyan '13 with a 106.06ºC, just for reference.

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#237 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:19 pm

Michael over land has a t 7.0 look to it XD

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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#238 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:21 pm

Eyeballing it I'd say Lorenzo is at 135 knots, MSLP ~935mb. And I think that's conservative.

This could be historic.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#239 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:23 pm


Fair amount of CMG in there too. Hints of lightning in the NW eyewall. Still increasing.

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#240 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It's quite rare for us to be talking a storm of this intensity - without Recon - in the Atlantic. Other than Isabel, have any cat 5's in the satellite era been deemed such based only on Dvorak numbers?

Just Isabel, which was a very clear cut case. That's not to say that there haven't been other instances where we could have identified category 5s from the Dvorak Technique alone (systems like Gilbert '88, Mitch '98, Rita '05, Irma '17, and Michael '18 are good examples), but since the observed category 5s are mostly concentrated in the western portion of the basin where the warmer waters tend to be, it's very rare to get a candidate outside of recon range.
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