2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro shows the wave that could spark genesis in the Western Caribbean approaching the Lesser Antilles:

https://i.postimg.cc/xT7nhyGx/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-11.png

CMC a little faster with the wave:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYbzpDxX/gem-z850-vort-watl-41.png

Hi Gatorcane, as you know Caribbean storms this time of year can be a pain to predict.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the wave that the GFS was developing a few days ago in the long range ends up over Mexico never develops but the wave behind starts developing in the western Caribbean at 324 hrs and the GFS for the last several runs has latched on to it, its entering west Africa currently

[LarryWx]

I see overnight GFS was fun but Euro/EPS not much to see.

Today’s 6Z/12Z/18Z GEFS runs have been much less impressive than those very impressive prior GEFS runs for 10/8-12 overall. Those had up to 50% of members with 999 mb or lower pressure! Also, the 0Z/12Z EPS continue to be unimpressed. So, in my mind the chance that those very active GEFS runs were tracking a phantom has increased some vs 24 hours ago. Keep in mind the GEFS history of sometimes tracking W Car phantoms in Oct.

[SFLcane]

I see overnight GFS was fun but Euro/EPS not much to see.

Today’s 6Z/12Z/18Z GEFS runs have been much less impressive than those very impressive prior GEFS runs for 10/8-12 overall. Those had up to 50% of members with 999 mb or lower pressure! Also, the 0Z/12Z EPS continue to be unimpressed. So, in my mind the chance that those very active GEFS runs were tracking a phantom has increased some vs 24 hours ago. Keep in mind the GEFS history of sometimes tracking W Car phantoms in Oct.

Well there's some EPS signal and it would be weird to go all October with absolutely nothing. It has something forming in about 6-7 days. How strong it’s anyone’s guess

[LarryWx]

I see overnight GFS was fun but Euro/EPS not much to see.

Today’s 6Z/12Z/18Z GEFS runs have been much less impressive than those very impressive prior GEFS runs for 10/8-12 overall. Those had up to 50% of members with 999 mb or lower pressure! Also, the 0Z/12Z EPS continue to be unimpressed. So, in my mind the chance that those very active GEFS runs were tracking a phantom has increased some vs 24 hours ago. Keep in mind the GEFS history of sometimes tracking W Car phantoms in Oct.

Well there's some EPS signal and it would be weird to go all October with absolutely nothing. It has something forming in about 6-7 days. How strong it’s anyone’s guess

Yeah, I see that moderate EPS signal in the W Caribbean although that’s for something quite a bit earlier than what those wild GEFS runs were showing.

[Hurricaneman]

If you go by the GFS Melissa will be a tropical storm Landfall failing to make a name for itself like all the other female names this year but the wave behind may be Nestor and could be the one to really watch but as we all know the models will change from run to run so don’t count on this but it’s possible because the Euro shows the same system the 0zGFS shows so the front one is somewhat likely to develop while the one behind isn’t a guarantee

[Emmett_Brown]

Just a side note about model performance and how they handle genesis this year... it seems like the only storm that all the models saw coming was Lorenzo... they pretty much all had it for days before development. Ironically, he is one of the larger storms (in overall size) of the last several years. Models have been playing catchup with genesis of the smaller storms (Dorian the most obvious example, but there are other examples). So the fact that the Euro is showing a nearly closed low later this week near the Yucatan raises a flag... something could certainly develop there.

[mpic]

If you go by the GFS Melissa will be a tropical storm Landfall failing to make a name for itself like all the other female names this year but the wave behind may be Nestor and could be the one to really watch but as we all know the models will change from run to run so don’t count on this but it’s possible because the Euro shows the same system the 0zGFS shows so the front one is somewhat likely to develop while the one behind isn’t a guarantee

People in my area who lost everything they have would disagree with you about Imelda. Won't forget that name any time soon.

[Hurricaneman]

If you go by the GFS Melissa will be a tropical storm Landfall failing to make a name for itself like all the other female names this year but the wave behind may be Nestor and could be the one to really watch but as we all know the models will change from run to run so don’t count on this but it’s possible because the Euro shows the same system the 0zGFS shows so the front one is somewhat likely to develop while the one behind isn’t a guarantee

People in my area who lost everything they have would disagree with you about Imelda. Won't forget that name any time soon.

Somehow forgot that one, that was too much rain in too little time

Back on topic, the wave the GFS develops long range is from a wave that moves off Tuesday which doesn’t develop until north of the Lesser Antilles but the southern part of the wave moves through the Caribbean and develops north of Panama

[toad strangler]

12z GFS with another probable phantom huge Caribbean hurricane in the long range. It has been showing this set up off and on for a few days in between losing it and not moving it up much. So for now, grain of salt.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS slowly moving NW when run ends:

[wxman57]

I'm giving this storm a 100% chance of development. We start our annual vacation at Disney World on the 21st. Every year, a storm threatens or hits Florida the week before we arrive.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS has a very favorable Caribbean setup that would get us our 3rd Cat5 of the year.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS has a very favorable Caribbean setup that would get us our 3rd Cat5 of the year.

That's if you actually believe the GFS beyond 3-5 days.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS has a very favorable Caribbean setup that would get us our 3rd Cat5 of the year.

That's if you actually believe the GFS beyond 3-5 days.

I don't think anyone believes that run verbatim. It's more about the potential given forecasted set up / conditions

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS has a very favorable Caribbean setup that would get us our 3rd Cat5 of the year.

Not sure it will happen this way but the 12zGFS shows a setup close to Wilma in 2005, but it’s in fantasy range so while it could still happen given the favorable environment it probably won’t happen exactly as modeled

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the Euro is joining the GFS with lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean, this may be a real system as it can be tracked back to Western Africa

Also it looks like multiple CAG systems may be possible as the pattern looks to last a few weeks longer

[SFLcane]

Looks like the Euro is joining the GFS with lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean, this may be a real system as it can be tracked back to Western Africa

Also it looks like multiple CAG systems may be possible as the pattern looks to last a few weeks longer

I am not seeing any lowering pressures care to put it out?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the Euro is joining the GFS with lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean, this may be a real system as it can be tracked back to Western Africa

Also it looks like multiple CAG systems may be possible as the pattern looks to last a few weeks longer

I am not seeing any lowering pressures care to put it out?

Just north of panama but its really broad, I could be reading too much into it though

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower. It can't get much quieter than that.