blp wrote:NAVGEM with a big ramp up on the 06z. So its the GFS, Icon, Navgem, CMC, Ukmet on board. Only a matter of time now for the Euro to come in.
https://i.ibb.co/0GG2Q5T/nvg10-prp-240-go-mex.gif
Correct, however the GFS had recently been advancing in time to suggest Genesis in as soon as 162 - 170 hours. If we're starting all over again in discussing 10 day forecast, then that seems to suggests less then optimal conditions still exist over the Caribbean. Perhaps conditions will change but until the above sub-set of models begin to pick up on development inside of a 96 hr. - 120 hr. window, then I'm increasingly skeptical. On the other hand, show me a consensus of all the major global's and i'm more apt to believe there may be something there