2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[chaser1]

NAVGEM with a big ramp up on the 06z. So its the GFS, Icon, Navgem, CMC, Ukmet on board. Only a matter of time now for the Euro to come in.

https://i.ibb.co/0GG2Q5T/nvg10-prp-240-go-mex.gif

Correct, however the GFS had recently been advancing in time to suggest Genesis in as soon as 162 - 170 hours. If we're starting all over again in discussing 10 day forecast, then that seems to suggests less then optimal conditions still exist over the Caribbean. Perhaps conditions will change but until the above sub-set of models begin to pick up on development inside of a 96 hr. - 120 hr. window, then I'm increasingly skeptical. On the other hand, show me a consensus of all the major global's and i'm more apt to believe there may be something there

[SFLcane]

Well it looks like many ECMWF members never develop at all. About a 5% chance of a TS on the EPS.

[Dean4Storms]

Just going to have to sit back and give this some time to see how it plays out. It's quite possible nothing develops down there.

[WeatherEmperor]

Has there been a case recently where all the models (GFS, UKMET, ICON, Navgem, Canadian) all develop a tropical system....except for the European? It seems strange that all the models except the Euro show this developing in some way or another.

[SFLcane]

Has there been a case recently where all the models (GFS, UKMET, ICON, Navgem, Canadian) all develop a tropical system....except for the European? It seems strange that all the models except the Euro show this developing in some way or another.

UKMET doesn't really develop either.

[Dean4Storms]

JB continues to believe something develops and moves toward the SW GOM.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Has there been a case recently where all the models (GFS, UKMET, ICON, Navgem, Canadian) all develop a tropical system....except for the European? It seems strange that all the models except the Euro show this developing in some way or another.

UKMET doesn't really develop either.

It's weak but it's there. Way more than what the ECMWF is showing (absolutely nothing). Doesn't really go far enough to be able to see what it does with it but we are still talking about a 240 hour storm.

[LarryWx]

Well it looks like many ECMWF members never develop at all. About a 5% chance of a TS on the EPS.

Where do you see that low of a number? I counted 7 sub 999 mb TCs out of 51 or 14%. I’d think all 7 would be at least make it to TS status. The highest so far for any EPS run per my count is 12 (24%), which was on yesterday’s 12Z. The 2nd highest is near 11 (22%), which was on Saturday’s 12Z. So, today’s 0Z is the 3rd most active with sub 999 TCs from this from what I’ve seen with the overall trend toward more activity in a stutter stepped pattern. Based on this stutter stepped pattern as well as overall increased non-Euro model operational consensus toward genesis as well as the GEFS progressing since Friday’s runs and EPS based MJO predictions of phase 1 into phase 2 (which is about as favorable as any path I could find based on W Car/Gulf Oct/Nov storms since 1975 though there’s no magic MJO bullet), I predict the 12Z EPS will have more than 7 sub 999 TCs and it may end up the most active yet. My concern is growing for W Caribbean/Gulf interests although it still is nowhere near panic mode at this still highly uncertain early stage.

[chris_fit]

00Z EPS

[LarryWx]

The 12Z ICON is consistent with the runs from 12 and 24 hours ago and once again has a W Caribbean genesis without time slippage vs those two earlier runs. Here is the last map of the run:

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS, weaker and more S and more W - spends much more time over land through 220 hours

[gatorcane]

On that 12Z GFS run the trough barely misses from pulling it northward. Trough is stronger this run but a little slower. Timing crucial here.

[chris_fit]

On that 12Z GFS run the trough barely misses from pulling it northward. Trough is stronger this run but a little slower. Timing crucial here.

Never makes it to the gulf on this run, at least through 270

[Hurricaneman]

On that 12Z GFS run the trough barely misses from pulling it northward. Trough is stronger this run but a little slower. Timing crucial here.

Never makes it to the gulf on this run, at least through 270

It depends on the strength of the ridge and trough and their position

[gatorcane]

On that 12Z GFS run the trough barely misses from pulling it northward. Trough is stronger this run but a little slower. Timing crucial here.

500MB setup suggests it narrowly escapes getting pulled into the weakness to the north:

[LarryWx]

Based on 192, the 12Z GEFS will be the most active of at least the last 4 runs with many geneses 10/14-5. Most members, which are then in the W Caribbean, are moving WNW in the general direction of CA at that time.

[SFLcane]

On that 12Z GFS run the trough barely misses from pulling it northward. Trough is stronger this run but a little slower. Timing crucial here.

500MB setup suggests it narrowly escapes getting pulled into the weakness to the north:

https://i.postimg.cc/dVXg2Ntj/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-38.png

Another run into Central America. CMC doesn't even form on the Atlantic side this run.

[LarryWx]

Based on 192, the 12Z GEFS will be the most active of at least the last 4 runs with many geneses 10/14-5. Most members, which are then in the W Caribbean, are moving WNW in the general direction of CA at that time.

As the run went further, a pretty strong majority go into CA at some point. But out of 21 members, I still counted ~7 US landfalls/skims of an intact TC (~33%): 2 FL panhandle/NW FL, 2 S/SW FL, and ~3 at or near TX/LA. The two earliest US LFs (10/19-20) were also the 2 strongest LFs and these are the two that hit FL Pan/NW FL. The other 5 or so, which were weaker, hit or skimmed the US ~10/22 (S FL/TX/LA) although one of these 5 was still pretty strong and the 3rd strongest overall (it hit SW FL).

Edit: The 12Z Euro just has something weak just off Belize at 192.

[SFLcane]

This bias..

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1181276155350933504

[LarryWx]

Through 198, the 12Z EPS is a bit quieter than the 0Z.