Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1521 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:44 am

Pretty good support on the GEFS for something as early as Monday even

Euro looks to be a no go this run

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TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1522 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:44 am

End of GFS knows what’s up although it’s 360 hours out :D :lol: :double:

EDIT: TWC app calls for Rain/Freezing Rain wed. morning for Bell County. A step in the right direction?
Last edited by TropicalTundra on Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1523 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:51 am

Well, I'm off to the U.S.-Canadian border to perform some wall reinforcements. I should be done by this weekend, but the data won't go into the models until early next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1524 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:55 am

wxman57 wrote:Well, I'm off to the U.S.-Canadian border to perform some wall reinforcements. I should be done by this weekend, but the data won't go into the models until early next week.

This can mean only one thing; a huge front is on the way!!! :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1525 Postby Common sense » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:04 am

wxman57 wrote:Well, I'm off to the U.S.-Canadian border to perform some wall reinforcements. I should be done by this weekend, but the data won't go into the models until early next week.



You definitely know how to beat a dead horse. *Yawn*
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1526 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:47 am

Yes, please!

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1527 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:12 am

6zGFS Ensembles are encouraging for Austin!

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1528 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:15 am

This thread is going to be wild for the next month.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1529 Postby harp » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:23 am

Portastorm wrote:Yes, please!

https://i.imgur.com/CSI7956.png

Getting close to me! C'mon, baby!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1530 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:35 am

Portastorm wrote:Yes, please!

https://i.imgur.com/CSI7956.png


Looks great! But that could spell trouble for the roads if sleet/freezing rain is thrown into the mix. We may be off most of the next week! :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1531 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:40 am

Portastorm wrote:Yes, please!

https://i.imgur.com/CSI7956.png

Plausible since DFW gets the shaft.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1532 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:31 am

12z GFS and now the 12z ICON both have snow across the state early next week fwiw. Due to low heights we dont need a major cold outbreak to get snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1533 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:32 am

12Z GFS is farther north and east with the colder air and snow. "No snow for you" for San Antonio & Austin. Snow closer to D-FW. I have my doubts about the depth of the cold air next week, particularly as far south as SAT and AUS. No deep upper low passing overhead next Tuesday, just NW flow aloft. I suspect we'll see continued model differences into the coming weekend, possibly to next Monday.

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1534 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:34 pm

The GFS mid week next week is showing a strong Plains high moving south out of Canada with moist STJ slamming into it over Texas. The STJ dries out as it moves across the state and with no resulting surface low to pull in new moisture from the Gulf. For areas W of -35 and N of I-10 this set up is great and many could see a multi inch snow event. For areas E of I-35 the key will be to get a stronger upper air shortwave that translates into a surface low to pull in Gulf moisture.

The GFS and its ensembles hint at a couple more storms after next weeks all with potential for winter precip. Love this time of year when cold has had time to build in over the continent and the STJ starts cranking.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1535 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:33 pm

Interesting... 12z EURO is now on board also with a winter storm.

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1536 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:40 pm

South of DFW but this is the first Euro run to show anything

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1537 Postby Haris » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:45 pm

Okay now this has my attention.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1538 Postby harp » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:55 pm

Yes, but how far east does it get? Louisiana? Help me out here my Texas friends! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1539 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:56 pm

Inside of 10 days & Euro / GFS agree somewhat. This timeframe started showing up in the various ensembles last week and has consistently been there in the 30 - 40% range, so it has some legs.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1540 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:00 pm

12z GEFS, still a wide range of possibilities

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.


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