Texas Winter 2019-2020

[TheProfessor]

Happy for you guys!! I will be living vicariously through you over here in Louisiana. Doesn't look like we have a chance.

It's often during these North Texas Snowstorms that we end up in a prime spot for severe weather. The Euro has been hinting at this and it looks like the GFS may be playing catch up now, so that is what we will have to watch.

[harp]

Happy for you guys!! I will be living vicariously through you over here in Louisiana. Doesn't look like we have a chance.

It's often during these North Texas Snowstorms that we end up in a prime spot for severe weather. The Euro has been hinting at this and it looks like the GFS may be playing catch up now, so that is what we will have to watch.

Yeah, I wish it were different. I think our winter here is over. we are running out of time unless we get a last minute surprise.

[Ralph's Weather]

I was a few days away from issuing my official winter cancel too...now my life has purpose again!

February remains king for snow. January is rarely good. I am waiting to get excited though I do think this is as good of a chance as we have had in a long time for a Feb 2010 event. Cold air in place ahead of the storm, cold air aloft moving in and a very deep storms system. I'd like the surface high to be a bit stronger and SE but that is being nitpicky. The GFS looks way way too warm at the surface especially after the storm.

[Cerlin]

I was a few days away from issuing my official winter cancel too...now my life has purpose again!

February remains king for snow. January is rarely good. I am waiting to get excited though I do think this is as good of a chance as we have had in a long time for a Feb 2010 event. Cold air in place ahead of the storm, cold air aloft moving in and a very deep storms system. I'd like the surface high to be a bit stronger and SE but that is being nitpicky. The GFS looks way way too warm at the surface especially after the storm.

For sure, all the signs have been here for sure, but I just figured it’d fizzle out like normal. All of this is within 7 days too...very exciting. I’m very interested to see how the mid range models handle this in the next few days.

[Ralph's Weather]

This looks like a situation where the models are actually underdoing the winter precip potential of this storm.

underdoing the winter precip?

Yes, that set up should produce bands of 6-12" snow and it should extend east of DFW. Some of that is because I think the models are under doing the surface cold air and also because models ae showing under 1" liquid for the event. Even without a great inflow of Pacific moisture the dynamic nature of this could produce bursts of heavy precip.

[Ralph's Weather]

Should make for a fun few days. By Monday we will begin to really see what may happen.

[Brent]

The Euro went the wrong way less snow even to the NW

[TheProfessor]

The UKMET is keeping the snow north and west of North Texas into the Panhandle and west-central Oklahoma. The Ukmet might be the most aggressive model when it comes to severe weather in Louisiana. One thing that the UKMET does do is that is forms a secondary low that goes from about Brownsville to the central La coast. I does produce some snow in DFW, but as of hour 144 it's light. A secondary low could make things interesting for south and east Texas depending on track.

[harp]

The UKMET is keeping the snow north and west of North Texas into the Panhandle and west-central Oklahoma. The Ukmet might be the most aggressive model when it comes to severe weather in Louisiana. One thing that the UKMET does do is that is forms a secondary low that goes from about Brownsville to the central La coast. I does produce some snow in DFW, but as of hour 144 it's light. A secondary low could make things interesting for south and east Texas depending on track.

I have always said that what southeast Texas gets, we in south Louisiana get the next day. I am pulling for southeast Texas. Although, it doesn't seem cold enough for us.

[TheProfessor]

The UKMET is keeping the snow north and west of North Texas into the Panhandle and west-central Oklahoma. The Ukmet might be the most aggressive model when it comes to severe weather in Louisiana. One thing that the UKMET does do is that is forms a secondary low that goes from about Brownsville to the central La coast. I does produce some snow in DFW, but as of hour 144 it's light. A secondary low could make things interesting for south and east Texas depending on track.

I have always said that what southeast Texas gets, we in south Louisiana get the next day. I am pulling for southeast Texas. Although, it doesn't seem cold enough for us.

In this case though probably not, we'd be on the east side of the lower pressure and in the warm sector. If we want any fun we'd need a secondary low to form and move from Brownsville to about Mobile, Al. Surface temps are still warm even for east and southeast Texas, but the important thing is you have a fairly strong low with cold air advection behind it.

[gboudx]

Happy for you guys!! I will be living vicariously through you over here in Louisiana. Doesn't look like we have a chance.

Let's come back to this post when my weather rock shows snow on it. Way too much time for things to change.

[TheProfessor]

One thing to look at is that the GFS is the fastest solution right now and the UKMET is the slowest solution. This might be model bias showing up in these models and in that case taking the model in the middle(Euro) would be ideal at this time. Though since it's still 5 days away there's plenty of time for different trends to occur. If I had my way I'd love to see an even slower solution that digs further south into Mexico, there might be some signs that this could happen. With the AO and NAO going positive it could actually help out a lot of the central U.S folks. Yes usually hear about -AO and -NAO causing large snow storms, but that's usually more for our east coast friends. Anyways if you could get a nice southeast ridge to form extending only to about the Mississippi river or so you could really get a big storm to develop in Texas then cut into the Midwest.

[TheProfessor]

One other thing is that the EPO is forecasted to trend negative around this time(and eventually go negative) though the EPO will still be positive, sometimes all you need is for that negative trend to happen.

[harp]

One other thing is that the EPO is forecasted to trend negative around this time(and eventually go negative) though the EPO will still be positive, sometimes all you need is for that negative trend to happen.

Is there anything we should watch for here in Louisiana? I know I'm grasping at straws here, but we are running out of time. Thanks.

[TheProfessor]

One other thing is that the EPO is forecasted to trend negative around this time(and eventually go negative) though the EPO will still be positive, sometimes all you need is for that negative trend to happen.

Is there anything we should watch for here in Louisiana? I know I'm grasping at straws here, but we are running out of time. Thanks.

Like I said, you'd want to watch for a secondary low that forms and moves towards Mobile with sufficient cold air to the north the filter in behind. The likelihood of this happening is very slim though. A secondary low in general is not a given and only the UKMET is showing one right now.

[harp]

Thank you

[wxman57]

Looks marginal for the D-FW area. Wouldn't rule out something like you saw there a few weeks ago when DFW recorded a trace of snow. Could be less than that, though. It's still a bit far out to be very confident.

[orangeblood]

Euro EPS starting to become really consistent, really good sign for next week!!

[Portastorm]

Looks marginal for the D-FW area. Wouldn't rule out something like you saw there a few weeks ago when DFW recorded a trace of snow. Could be less than that, though. It's still a bit far out to be very confident.

Who wants snow anyhow?! I'm sick of winter. Give me bright Texas sunshine and temps in the 90s.

[gpsnowman]

Looks marginal for the D-FW area. Wouldn't rule out something like you saw there a few weeks ago when DFW recorded a trace of snow. Could be less than that, though. It's still a bit far out to be very confident.

Who wants snow anyhow?! I'm sick of winter. Give me bright Texas sunshine and temps in the 90s.

Et tu, Portastorm?