Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CyclonicFury]

WOW that is insane!! You can't really have a more ominous-looking forecast than this, holy cow this could be very bad. No one needs a hurricane striking land any year, but 2020 is the worst possible one to see a forecast like this verify!

Respectfully, according to a general rule, I wouldn’t (necessarily) base one’s expectations for the upcoming hurricane season(s) on Joe Bastardi’s outlook(s).

He may well be right in 2020, like the proverbial broken clock. However, I would not base one’s expectations solely on his outlook(s).

I agree, but the consensus so far has been above average based on every forecast. Sure it's possible they could all be wrong. I do agree Bastardi's numbers might be a bit too bullish but it's in line with the above-average consensus so far.

[ncforecaster89]

WeatherBell is up.

https://i.imgur.com/LnkjTRy.png

That may be the most ridiculous "highest risk" map I've ever seen...and that's saying something!

They highlighted every single portion of the U S. mainland except the Big Bend of Florida, NE Florida to the Ga/SC border, and areas north of Cape Cod. That's really using some serious skill, I'll tell ya... given those locations are historically the least hurricane-prone areas for a U.S. mainland landfall (from a NATL basin TC).

If that isn't bad enough, they follow with storm numbers that are equally as broad and lacking in tangible skill. 

Important to note that the 1995-2019 twenty-five year period has averaged 15/7/3. Without El Nino, it's highly unlikely that the seasonal figures will fall short of the aforementioned average season. Thus, their forecast ranges from average climatology (on the lowest end) all the way to virtually equaling the extreme activity of 2005. To me, that's a "no risk" forecast with very little to zero skill!

[FireRat]

Well you guys have great points, that does make sense, he does have most risk areas highlighted, but it's the consistency of having 3 different expert forecasts calling for a busy season and Bastardi's numbers that impacted me. I forgot weatherbell was his forecast lol, but yeah it does look scary when you imagine a couple of hurricanes barreling through his red zones and slamming many of the islands and into the SE US, like Irma, Georges or Donna, that would be some impact!

Lets see how things look by late May once the Spring Barrier comes down, hopefully we will have better news.

[Astromanía]

WeatherBell is up.

https://i.imgur.com/LnkjTRy.png

Mmm no potential impacts for México aside from Yucatán península that is not in the major risk and literally almost all the US coast in danger for a major impact Seems legit, seriously this is the worst forecast so far, the only important thing to take from this is the high activity

[Steve]

WeatherBell is up.

https://i.imgur.com/LnkjTRy.png

Mmm no potential impacts for México aside from Yucatán península that is not in the major risk and literally almost all the US coast in danger for a major impact Seems legit, seriously this is the worst forecast so far, the only important thing to take from this is the high activity

They've done well the last couple of years pinpointing regions of activity. The 50% of activity zone starts in the Central Atlantic MDR and is otherwise pretty far west in the Atlantic basin. That's the main take away from this IMHO.

[aspen]

Lets see how things look by late May once the Spring Barrier comes down, hopefully we will have better news.

Given the way 2020 has gone, there won’t be better news. The 25-year seasonal average posted above, as well as the signs pointing towards a neutral or cool-neutral ENSO (as opposed to a weak El Niño like 2018 and 2019), means an above-average season with at least 14-15 named storms is highly likely. I’m not going to believe we’re going to have a hyperactive season like 2010 or 2017 until we get to the end of the Spring Barrier and the official start of the season, however.

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi has a 20 minute video where he explains in detail about the forecast.

https://www.weatherbell.com/

Analog years.

[Steve]

Phases 2 and 3 of the MJO is the main key to his 2020 forecast. This should be easy enough to follow along with once the season gets started. He blew it on his winter forecast because he based expected conditions that follow a cool November and Warm December to bounce back to cold January-March (Phases 8-1-2). That didn't happen as the MJO was overall averaged in Phase 6. While he's betting on roughly the same thing to happen in the summer that didn't happen in the winter, he says there are signs that areas where the thunderstorms were going off the most all winter in the western oceans are starting to dry. He shows future support from the European anticipating that in the late summer. Definitely interesting.

[TheStormExpert]

Joe Bastardi has a 20 minute video where he explains in detail about the forecast.

https://www.weatherbell.com/

Analog years.

https://i.imgur.com/GqQS6V5.jpg

9 out of the 11 analog seasons had some blockbuster seasons! Especially 2004, 2005, and 2017 in recent memory. Right now all could hope is a exact repeat or similar of 2010 occurs.

[TheStormExpert]

Lets see how things look by late May once the Spring Barrier comes down, hopefully we will have better news.

Given the way 2020 has gone, there won’t be better news. The 25-year seasonal average posted above, as well as the signs pointing towards a neutral or cool-neutral ENSO (as opposed to a weak El Niño like 2018 and 2019), means an above-average season with at least 14-15 named storms is highly likely. I’m not going to believe we’re going to have a hyperactive season like 2010 or 2017 until we get to the end of the Spring Barrier and the official start of the season, however.

Same, in my opinion at least an above average season is the most likely outcome for now. Once we start hurricane season around June 1st we should have a clearer picture as to how busy the season may get.

[TheStormExpert]

Phases 2 and 3 of the MJO is the main key to his 2020 forecast. This should be easy enough to follow along with once the season gets started. He blew it on his winter forecast because he based expected conditions that follow a cool November and Warm December to bounce back to cold January-March (Phases 8-1-2). That didn't happen as the MJO was overall averaged in Phase 6. While he's betting on roughly the same thing to happen in the summer that didn't happen in the winter, he says there are signs that areas where the thunderstorms were going off the most all winter in the western oceans are starting to dry. He shows future support from the European anticipating that in the late summer. Definitely interesting.

Joe B. is almost always bullish on winter forecasts, especially in the NE U.S. where he is located in Pennsylvania, go figure!

Maybe just like his winter forecast he’ll be wrong again and bust way too high on numbers and risk locations.

[Steve]

Yeah. I’ve been watching him since the 90’s. He lets his extreme weather fandom get in the way. But I don’t think his forecast isn unreasonable. It’s on the hardcore side and would result in additional life disruptions for some of us.

[jconsor]

Dr. Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger posted his "First Look" for the 2020 hurricane season. His outlooks in the past several years have shown considerable skill. He also has a proprietary ENSO modeL that has performed better than most of the models (ECMWF, CFS, JMA, UKMET, etc) in the past two years, when most of those models were too aggressive with the El Nino. This ENSO model is incorporated into his hurricane season outlooks.

Some highlights:

*WeatherTiger’s first look at the 2020 hurricane season is for a 50% chance of an above average year, with a 30% chance of near-normal and 20% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 145% of average hurricane season activity, or around 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
*Our model is picking up on indications, including cooling waters below the surface and conducive low-level winds, suggesting a La Niña event will slowly take shape over the next 3-5 months. This favors a busy season, particularly from September onward.
*Historically, the strongest relationship between warmth in early spring and an active hurricane season is in the eastern Atlantic between Brazil and West Africa, as warmer anomalies there often migrate into the Main Development Region by the season’s peak and catalyze the development of passing tropical waves.
This year, both water temperatures and near-surface air temperatures in this key region are far above normal. While this could change before summer, the relationship between east Atlantic spring temperatures and seasonal hurricane activity is statistically significant since 1950. Near-surface temperature anomalies are particularly well-correlated this spring with the regions in the Equatorial Atlantic that are historically the best leading indicators for above normal hurricane seasons.
*Overall, while model skill is very limited at this range and all April hurricane seasonal outlooks should be regarded as low-confidence forecasts, convergent lines of evidence support a potentially busy season.

https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... pril-2020/

[cycloneye]

Dr. Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger posted his "First Look" for the 2020 hurricane season. His outlooks in the past several years have shown considerable skill. He also has a proprietary ENSO modeL that has performed better than most of the models (ECMWF, CFS, JMA, UKMET, etc) in the past two years, when most of those models were too aggressive with the El Nino. This ENSO model is incorporated into his hurricane season outlooks.

Some highlights:

*WeatherTiger’s first look at the 2020 hurricane season is for a 50% chance of an above average year, with a 30% chance of near-normal and 20% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 145% of average hurricane season activity, or around 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
*Our model is picking up on indications, including cooling waters below the surface and conducive low-level winds, suggesting a La Niña event will slowly take shape over the next 3-5 months. This favors a busy season, particularly from September onward.
*Historically, the strongest relationship between warmth in early spring and an active hurricane season is in the eastern Atlantic between Brazil and West Africa, as warmer anomalies there often migrate into the Main Development Region by the season’s peak and catalyze the development of passing tropical waves.
This year, both water temperatures and near-surface air temperatures in this key region are far above normal. While this could change before summer, the relationship between east Atlantic spring temperatures and seasonal hurricane activity is statistically significant since 1950. Near-surface temperature anomalies are particularly well-correlated this spring with the regions in the Equatorial Atlantic that are historically the best leading indicators for above normal hurricane seasons.
*Overall, while model skill is very limited at this range and all April hurricane seasonal outlooks should be regarded as low-confidence forecasts, convergent lines of evidence support a potentially busy season.

https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... pril-2020/

Added to the list.

[cycloneye]

Consensus.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1250193504266928129

[aspen]

University of Arizona just came out with their forecast: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes with an ACE of 163.
http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/fi ... l_2020.pdf

[TheStormExpert]

Add The Weather Channel/The Weather Company to the list with 18/9/4.

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1250766720542924800

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1250774249096327168

[cycloneye]

I saw in twitter a forecast from the University of Arizona but without a link. Does anyone has a link?

[aspen]

I saw in twitter a forecast from the University of Arizona but without a link. Does anyone has a link?

I posted it a little further up, but here it is again: http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/fi ... l_2020.pdf