2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[TheStormExpert]

Remember that many very active to even hyperactive seasons don't even have their first hurricane until August. 2017 did not have a single hurricane until August 9. 2004 did not have its first hurricane until

Environmental conditions could suggest a more active early season than usual, but there's a high chance the Atlantic doesn't have its first hurricane until August 3. Although 2010 had Hurricane Alex in late June/early July, it did not have its second hurricane until August 23. From June to mid-August, SAL outbreaks over the MDR are quite common, and trade winds are often quite strong, which is why we typically don't see significant MDR activity until late August. I can almost guarantee you there will be some season cancelling on this thread in 3-4 months, it happens every year. Even then, that does not mean the season will be quiet.

I still think the season will likely be above average to possibly well above average, but history says it's unlikely we will come close to 1933 or 2005 level activity in terms of ACE.

A season like 1933 or even 2005 is the least likely to happen in terms of ACE but track wise it they might be good analog years. In terms of ACE a season like 2004 or 2017 which featured similar total ACE units 227 and 225 respectively isn’t out of the realm of possibilities but especially the closer we get to the La Niña threshold and depending on how favorable the Atlantic is overall besides the current state of the SST anomalies.

[JPmia]

Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.

[TheStormExpert]

Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.

Most are saying a blend of 1933 and 2005, or even 2008. Which would be a west-based season with high Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico activity.

[crownweather]

Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.

This is what I came up with for ***possible*** steering ideas (white arrows) when I released my forecast last month.

[Camerooski]

Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.

This is what I came up with for ***possible*** steering ideas (white arrows) when I released my forecast last month.

https://i.imgur.com/alxMFPn.png

Wow way to go out of limb there, anyone from the whole Caribbean, Gulf Coast States, and east coast up to NC can get hit. Can we just stop with the click baiting, no one knows how steering is going to be setup. Let's just start with how the ENSO will setup and we will worry about steering when we get there.

[crownweather]

Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.

This is what I came up with for ***possible*** steering ideas (white arrows) when I released my forecast last month.

https://i.imgur.com/alxMFPn.png

Wow way to go out of limb there, anyone from the whole Caribbean, Gulf Coast States, and east coast up to NC can get hit. Can we just stop with the click baiting, no one knows how steering is going to be setup. Let's just start with how the ENSO will setup and we will worry about steering when we get there.

If you actually ***read*** the forecast behind that map, you would see it's not click-bait & it's based on model guidance & analog data. Also, someone asked what some of us thought of steering currents this season. But, whatever.

[toad strangler]

This is what I came up with for ***possible*** steering ideas (white arrows) when I released my forecast last month.

https://i.imgur.com/alxMFPn.png

Wow way to go out of limb there, anyone from the whole Caribbean, Gulf Coast States, and east coast up to NC can get hit. Can we just stop with the click baiting, no one knows how steering is going to be setup. Let's just start with how the ENSO will setup and we will worry about steering when we get there.

If you actually ***read*** the forecast behind that map, you would see it's not click-bait & it's based on model guidance & analog data. Also, someone asked what some of us thought of steering currents this season. But, whatever.

Don't let the noise keep you from posting your thoughts. It's what this thread is supposed to be ..

[crownweather]

Wow way to go out of limb there, anyone from the whole Caribbean, Gulf Coast States, and east coast up to NC can get hit. Can we just stop with the click baiting, no one knows how steering is going to be setup. Let's just start with how the ENSO will setup and we will worry about steering when we get there.

If you actually ***read*** the forecast behind that map, you would see it's not click-bait & it's based on model guidance & analog data. Also, someone asked what some of us thought of steering currents this season. But, whatever.

Don't let the noise keep you from posting your thoughts. It's what this thread is supposed to be ..

Thanks!! I'm sorry for having to be so snarky and rude with my response, but I take great offense to anyone accusing me of putting out click bait. I spent weeks trying to come up with a seasonal forecast and a lot goes into putting together that forecast.

Anyways, I always thought that all opinions on what the season would be like were welcome in this topic.

[HurricaneEnzo]

While I don't necessarily agree with these pre-season predictions of where storms are gonna go no need to get snarky about it. Pretty much if you are in the Atlantic Basin from Nova Scotia south you need to be on guard every single year. Too many little windows for storms to sneak into and take a track right to your area. Most active years will have impacts many places can't really narrow it down to one.

[crownweather]

While I don't necessarily agree with these pre-season predictions of where storms are gonna go no need to get snarky about it. Pretty much if you are in the Atlantic Basin from Nova Scotia south you need to be on guard every single year. Too many little windows for storms to sneak into and take a track right to your area. Most active years will have impacts many places can't really narrow it down to one.

And I completely respect your opinion. Trying to figure out the generalized steering flow & threat areas is something that I've been working on for several years. Some years have been less than stellar with a landfall risk forecast in my seasonal forecast. Other years I've done very well in where areas that were impacted. I think it's a seasonal forecast "problem" that can be solved. I think that eventually we'll be able to get an idea at a seasonal level which parts of the coast & which islands may have a higher risk of a landfall.

[USTropics]

Using the same composites from my previous post last week, here are some comparisons to seasonal forecasts for this season. Again, this is just looking at the months of June-July only. Below was my original post.

I've created 2 subsets of composites for the months of June and July only. The first subset will be active years, particularly weighted towards active MDR seasons that had at least one MDR storm before August (see list below for details). This has also been weighted towards the modern satellite era. The second subset will be inactive years that had very limited MDR activity or early season activity. The first image will always be the active years selected, followed by inactive years selected.

Active years selected (10 total)
1959 - 5 tropical systems (3 hurricanes) developed before August
1966 - Record 4 hurricanes developed before August
1969 - 4th most active Atlantic season, 2 MDR systems before August
1989 - Active early MDR (2 hurricanes)
1990 - 8 hurricanes total in season and active MDR before August
1995 - 2 hurricanes and 5 total storms before August
2003 - 2 hurricanes and 7 total storms before August
2005 - Most active Atlantic season, 3 hurricanes (2 major) before August
2008 - 2 hurricanes (1 MDR) before August
2010 - 3rd most active Atlantic season, heavy MDR activity

Inactive years selected (10 total)
1977, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1992, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2014

Sea Surface Temperature


Precipitation


Velocity Potential


Mean Sea Level Pressure


850mb Zonal Wind


200mb Zonal Wind


500mb Heights


Africa Precipitation


Sources:
CFS/CanSIPS Seasonal Forecasts - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
CFS Seasonal Forecasts - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... onal.shtml
ECMWF/CMC/NCEP/UKMO Seasonal Forecasts - https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/
JMA Seasonal Forecasts - https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... zpcmap.php
Composite Images made at - https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl

[Ivanhater]

A question was asked and an opinion was given regarding steering. Anyone is free to post their thoughts and reasoning behind it. It is fine to disagree, but disrespectful comments will not be tolerated.


Post away

[Kingarabian]

Also I'm not sure why there's frustration targeted over people's potential areas of impact graphics (see Bastardi's in the 2020 professional forecasts thread). Because these people have 2005 and 2017 as their analogs.. And where did all these systems go in 2005 and 2017? Not OTS. So while it's tough times right now, the 2020 hurricane season setup is what it is.

[TheStormExpert]

Overall regardless of what happens the message is to prepare for this season now with the COVID-19 virus in mind!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This was already mentioned earlier in the thread via a tweet from Eric Webb, but it's probably worth watching for some pre-season Atlantic activity by mid-late May. By then the MJO will be in town, and a rising cell/standing wave will have set itself up over the basin. Would not be surprised at all if we get something out of this (and no, I don't mean those long-range GFS ghost storms )

[toad strangler]

I'm waiting for NOAA on 5/21 for sure but the train keeps a rollin

 http://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1254465384469745664

[CyclonicFury]

I'm waiting for NOAA on 5/21 for sure but the train keeps a rollin

http://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1254465384469745664?s=20

It's interesting that it is showing such a strong trade burst and a strong typhoon at the same time.

[cycloneye]

I'm waiting for NOAA on 5/21 for sure but the train keeps a rollin

http://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1254465384469745664?s=20

It's interesting that it is showing such a strong trade burst and a strong typhoon at the same time.

Why is interesting having the WB and a Typhoon at the same time?

[Shell Mound]

The MDR has recently cooled down significantly, despite a near-neutral NAO. The expansion of the Hadley cells due to climate change may mean that even a neutral or negative NAO may yield relatively stronger easterlies over the MDR than in the past, particularly during the height of late summer or early fall, as wavelengths also lengthen seasonally. So, contrary to popular expectations, the MDR may not warm substantially or even cool down quite a bit between now and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, depending in part on the state of the NAO. We do know that climate change tends to promote greater stability over the MDR, due in part to the expansion of the Hadley cells, but also related to the warming of the subtropical as well as the tropical North Atlantic, given that the subtropics tend to warm up even faster than the tropics, at least in the Atlantic basin. Overall, the NAO and climate change, along with the absence of La Niña by ASO, may serve to temper not just overall numbers in 2020, but also ACE and the risk of landfalls, given a weaker -PDO signature during neutral ENSO vs. La Niña.

[AutoPenalti]

The MDR has recently cooled down significantly, despite a near-neutral NAO. The expansion of the Hadley cells due to climate change may mean that even a neutral or negative NAO may yield relatively stronger easterlies over the MDR than in the past, particularly during the height of late summer or early fall, as wavelengths also lengthen seasonally. So, contrary to popular expectations, the MDR may not warm substantially or even cool down quite a bit between now and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, depending in part on the state of the NAO. We do know that climate change tends to promote greater stability over the MDR, due in part to the expansion of the Hadley cells, but also related to the warming of the subtropical as well as the tropical North Atlantic, given that the subtropics tend to warm up even faster than the tropics, at least in the Atlantic basin. Overall, the NAO and climate change, along with the absence of La Niña by ASO, may serve to temper not just overall numbers in 2020, but also ACE and the risk of landfalls, given a weaker -PDO signature during neutral ENSO vs. La Niña.

So pretty much flipped from active to less active season