2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Shell Mound]

Not so fast:
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1258524476657987586



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1258539110152593408



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1258539693836132352

[Shell Mound]

Essentially, there are two primary factors that could prevent this season from being hyperactive: a) the configuration and degree of warmth in the tropical Atlantic (MDR)/Caribbean by ASO, which is in part connected to the state of the NAO (meaning stronger or weaker subtropical high and associated trades) at that time; and b) the state and location of upward motion over the North Pacific basin to northward of the equator. A persistent +NAO regime, acting on SSTs via enhanced trades, would tend to cool down the MDR/Caribbean, as seen on the ECMWF, while enhanced convection over the EPAC, between 120°–100°W, would induce shear over the Caribbean, along with hints of a stronger TUTT near the islands, as seen on both the CFSv2 and EC. Note that both of these models show not just a dry Caribbean during ASO, but also show a sharp decrease in above-average precipitation near the Leeward Islands, around 60°–65°W.

[TheStormExpert]

I’ll be interested to see what NOAA says when they release their numbers later this month along with an updated CSU release. Some of this talk is really interesting and will play a role in either hurting or helping fuel the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[cycloneye]

NNME precipitation for ASO.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258752261603201024

[aspen]

NNME precipitation for ASO.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258752261603201024

MDR precipitation looks relatively unchanged, but I’m really interested in the increased precipitation on both sides of Central America and up into the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. Perhaps we could see increased activity around both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of CA.

[SFLcane]

NNME precipitation for ASO.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258752261603201024

Wow!

[hurricanes1234]

Just out of curiosity, I'm wondering why this model might be hinting at a somewhat drier Caribbean.

Hopefully that doesn't turn out to be the case as we may need some average to above-average rains to make up for the relative dryness in the area since the start of 2019.

[JetFuel_SE]

Just out of curiosity, I'm wondering why this model might be hinting at a somewhat drier Caribbean.

Hopefully that doesn't turn out to be the case as we may need some average to above-average rains to make up for the relative dryness in the area since the start of 2019.

It's clearly trending wetter, as shown in the GIF.

[TheStormExpert]

No El Niño that's for sure!

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1258776944386113536




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1258777563972939776

[toad strangler]

Given the large amount of indicators thus far that sure look conducive for a above normal Atlantic Basin season, steering indicators will soon take a front seat on the bus. Those are the toughest of all to sniff out clues on. Obviously we can get a really busy season but have most of them do climo recurves out into the open sea. That would be the preferable outcome for sure. But I don't root for weather, I observe it

[hurricanes1234]

Just out of curiosity, I'm wondering why this model might be hinting at a somewhat drier Caribbean.

Hopefully that doesn't turn out to be the case as we may need some average to above-average rains to make up for the relative dryness in the area since the start of 2019.

It's clearly trending wetter, as shown in the GIF.

Whoops, I should've been more precise ... the eastern and especially the southeastern Caribbean where it's still brown in the second picture.

I guess maybe it's predicting more waves to potentially form into tropical cyclones, which would mean they don't ride the southeastern Caribbean in large numbers as they usually do (with more probably heading a little further north than that if they form into storms)?

[TheStormExpert]

NNME precipitation for ASO.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258752261603201024

MDR precipitation looks relatively unchanged, but I’m really interested in the increased precipitation on both sides of Central America and up into the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. Perhaps we could see increased activity around both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of CA.

A lot of times these precipitation outlook plumes can be a good indication of where storms will form and track. In this case just going by that particular model it looks like we may have several storms form in the Western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche and track NE towards the NE Gulf Coast, Florida, Cuba, and The Bahamas. With a secondary clustering in the Tropical Atlantic heading west then NW towards the NE Caribbean or just north of them.

Doesn't really look like there will be a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores High like we've seen in many recent seasons which really doesn't come at a surprise considering the current pattern we're in now.

This is just a total guesstimate and by no means is ANYONE off the hook!

[toad strangler]

Yaakov (Good Lord who names their kid that)
Is saying that the NMME is showing a later start to MDR season as in recent years

 http://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1258788663976251393

[toad strangler]

Given the large amount of indicators thus far that sure look conducive for a above normal Atlantic Basin season, steering indicators will soon take a front seat on the bus. Those are the toughest of all to sniff out clues on. Obviously we can get a really busy season but have most of them do climo recurves out into the open sea. That would be the preferable outcome for sure. But I don't root for weather, I observe it

WOW I beat Andy to it LOL

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1258789854957182978

[toad strangler]

NMME August - October

 http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1259123457238827010

[Shell Mound]

If this system offshore the SE US were to transpire, it could offer clues as to the rest of the year. Years that featured a similar development and track in the month of May include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Most of the storms in these seasons curved OTS east of the mainland U.S., though some clustered over Central America, TX/LA, and the Carolinas. So these areas might be at highest risk in 2020, based on the ECMWF’s latest run. Of course, first we need to see whether such a system as depicted actually evolves over or near the Bahamas around 20 May.

[CourierPR]

If this system were to transpire, it could offer clues as to the rest of the year. Years that featured a similar development and track in the month of May include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Most of the storms in these seasons curved OTS east of the mainland U.S., though some clustered over Central America, TX/LA, and the Carolinas. So these areas might be at highest risk in 2020, based on the ECMWF’s latest run. Of course, first we need to see whether such a system as depicted actually evolves over or near the Bahamas around 20 May.

I respectfully disagree. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has already made a possible season tracks forecast and South Florida is in the crosshairs.

[TheStormExpert]

If this system were to transpire, it could offer clues as to the rest of the year. Years that featured a similar development and track in the month of May include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Most of the storms in these seasons curved OTS east of the mainland U.S., though some clustered over Central America, TX/LA, and the Carolinas. So these areas might be at highest risk in 2020, based on the ECMWF’s latest run. Of course, first we need to see whether such a system as depicted actually evolves over or near the Bahamas around 20 May.

I respectfully disagree. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has already made a possible season tracks forecast and South Florida is in the crosshairs.

So you’re going to go off of one meteorologists own predictions!? Sounds kind of risky to me!

Shell Mound has a good point! We saw this last year with TD #3 and several other systems leading up to Dorian which all came close but recurved East of Florida.

[CaptainCallout]

When is the "season cancelling" crowd going to comment on the spike of SSTs in the MDR?

[toad strangler]

If this system were to transpire, it could offer clues as to the rest of the year. Years that featured a similar development and track in the month of May include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Most of the storms in these seasons curved OTS east of the mainland U.S., though some clustered over Central America, TX/LA, and the Carolinas. So these areas might be at highest risk in 2020, based on the ECMWF’s latest run. Of course, first we need to see whether such a system as depicted actually evolves over or near the Bahamas around 20 May.

I respectfully disagree. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has already made a possible season tracks forecast and South Florida is in the crosshairs.

So you’re going to go off of one meteorologists own predictions!? Sounds kind of risky to me!

Shell Mound has a good point! We saw this last year with TD #3 and several other systems leading up to Dorian which all came close but recurved East of Florida.

Florida is always under the gun. As are many other locations. I give absolutely zero credence to any of these analogs. The 2020 atmosphere doesn't care about 1908, etc. It is CLIMO for Atlantic Basin storms to re-curve away from United States East Coast. This is no revelation, come on.