2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Not so fast:
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1258524476657987586
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1258539110152593408
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1258539693836132352
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1258524476657987586
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1258539110152593408
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1258539693836132352
1 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Essentially, there are two primary factors that could prevent this season from being hyperactive: a) the configuration and degree of warmth in the tropical Atlantic (MDR)/Caribbean by ASO, which is in part connected to the state of the NAO (meaning stronger or weaker subtropical high and associated trades) at that time; and b) the state and location of upward motion over the North Pacific basin to northward of the equator. A persistent +NAO regime, acting on SSTs via enhanced trades, would tend to cool down the MDR/Caribbean, as seen on the ECMWF, while enhanced convection over the EPAC, between 120°–100°W, would induce shear over the Caribbean, along with hints of a stronger TUTT near the islands, as seen on both the CFSv2 and EC. Note that both of these models show not just a dry Caribbean during ASO, but also show a sharp decrease in above-average precipitation near the Leeward Islands, around 60°–65°W.
0 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
I’ll be interested to see what NOAA says when they release their numbers later this month along with an updated CSU release. Some of this talk is really interesting and will play a role in either hurting or helping fuel the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
cycloneye wrote:NNME precipitation for ASO.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258752261603201024
MDR precipitation looks relatively unchanged, but I’m really interested in the increased precipitation on both sides of Central America and up into the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. Perhaps we could see increased activity around both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of CA.
2 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
cycloneye wrote:NNME precipitation for ASO.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258752261603201024
Wow!

0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2907
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Just out of curiosity, I'm wondering why this model might be hinting at a somewhat drier Caribbean.
Hopefully that doesn't turn out to be the case as we may need some average to above-average rains to make up for the relative dryness in the area since the start of 2019.
Hopefully that doesn't turn out to be the case as we may need some average to above-average rains to make up for the relative dryness in the area since the start of 2019.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- JetFuel_SE
- Category 1
- Posts: 282
- Age: 25
- Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
hurricanes1234 wrote:Just out of curiosity, I'm wondering why this model might be hinting at a somewhat drier Caribbean.
Hopefully that doesn't turn out to be the case as we may need some average to above-average rains to make up for the relative dryness in the area since the start of 2019.
It's clearly trending wetter, as shown in the GIF.
1 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Given the large amount of indicators thus far that sure look conducive for a above normal Atlantic Basin season, steering indicators will soon take a front seat on the bus. Those are the toughest of all to sniff out clues on. Obviously we can get a really busy season but have most of them do climo recurves out into the open sea. That would be the preferable outcome for sure. But I don't root for weather, I observe it 

5 likes
My Weather Station
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2907
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
JetFuel_SE wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:Just out of curiosity, I'm wondering why this model might be hinting at a somewhat drier Caribbean.
Hopefully that doesn't turn out to be the case as we may need some average to above-average rains to make up for the relative dryness in the area since the start of 2019.
It's clearly trending wetter, as shown in the GIF.
Whoops, I should've been more precise ... the eastern and especially the southeastern Caribbean where it's still brown in the second picture.
I guess maybe it's predicting more waves to potentially form into tropical cyclones, which would mean they don't ride the southeastern Caribbean in large numbers as they usually do (with more probably heading a little further north than that if they form into storms)?
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
aspen wrote:cycloneye wrote:NNME precipitation for ASO.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258752261603201024
MDR precipitation looks relatively unchanged, but I’m really interested in the increased precipitation on both sides of Central America and up into the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. Perhaps we could see increased activity around both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of CA.
A lot of times these precipitation outlook plumes can be a good indication of where storms will form and track. In this case just going by that particular model it looks like we may have several storms form in the Western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche and track NE towards the NE Gulf Coast, Florida, Cuba, and The Bahamas. With a secondary clustering in the Tropical Atlantic heading west then NW towards the NE Caribbean or just north of them.
Doesn't really look like there will be a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores High like we've seen in many recent seasons which really doesn't come at a surprise considering the current pattern we're in now.
This is just a total guesstimate and by no means is ANYONE off the hook!
3 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Yaakov (Good Lord who names their kid that)
Is saying that the NMME is showing a later start to MDR season as in recent years
http://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1258788663976251393
Is saying that the NMME is showing a later start to MDR season as in recent years
http://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1258788663976251393
4 likes
My Weather Station
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
toad strangler wrote:Given the large amount of indicators thus far that sure look conducive for a above normal Atlantic Basin season, steering indicators will soon take a front seat on the bus. Those are the toughest of all to sniff out clues on. Obviously we can get a really busy season but have most of them do climo recurves out into the open sea. That would be the preferable outcome for sure. But I don't root for weather, I observe it
WOW I beat Andy to it LOL
http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1258789854957182978
1 likes
My Weather Station
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
If this system offshore the SE US were to transpire, it could offer clues as to the rest of the year. Years that featured a similar development and track in the month of May include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Most of the storms in these seasons curved OTS east of the mainland U.S., though some clustered over Central America, TX/LA, and the Carolinas. So these areas might be at highest risk in 2020, based on the ECMWF’s latest run. Of course, first we need to see whether such a system as depicted actually evolves over or near the Bahamas around 20 May.
0 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- CourierPR
- Category 5
- Posts: 1335
- Age: 71
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
- Location: Pompano Beach, Florida
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
Shell Mound wrote:If this system were to transpire, it could offer clues as to the rest of the year. Years that featured a similar development and track in the month of May include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Most of the storms in these seasons curved OTS east of the mainland U.S., though some clustered over Central America, TX/LA, and the Carolinas. So these areas might be at highest risk in 2020, based on the ECMWF’s latest run. Of course, first we need to see whether such a system as depicted actually evolves over or near the Bahamas around 20 May.
I respectfully disagree. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has already made a possible season tracks forecast and South Florida is in the crosshairs.
1 likes
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
CourierPR wrote:Shell Mound wrote:If this system were to transpire, it could offer clues as to the rest of the year. Years that featured a similar development and track in the month of May include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Most of the storms in these seasons curved OTS east of the mainland U.S., though some clustered over Central America, TX/LA, and the Carolinas. So these areas might be at highest risk in 2020, based on the ECMWF’s latest run. Of course, first we need to see whether such a system as depicted actually evolves over or near the Bahamas around 20 May.
I respectfully disagree. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has already made a possible season tracks forecast and South Florida is in the crosshairs.
So you’re going to go off of one meteorologists own predictions!? Sounds kind of risky to me!
Shell Mound has a good point! We saw this last year with TD #3 and several other systems leading up to Dorian which all came close but recurved East of Florida.
2 likes
-
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:53 pm
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
When is the "season cancelling" crowd going to comment on the spike of SSTs in the MDR?
1 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images
TheStormExpert wrote:CourierPR wrote:Shell Mound wrote:If this system were to transpire, it could offer clues as to the rest of the year. Years that featured a similar development and track in the month of May include 1908, 1940, and 1948. Most of the storms in these seasons curved OTS east of the mainland U.S., though some clustered over Central America, TX/LA, and the Carolinas. So these areas might be at highest risk in 2020, based on the ECMWF’s latest run. Of course, first we need to see whether such a system as depicted actually evolves over or near the Bahamas around 20 May.
I respectfully disagree. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has already made a possible season tracks forecast and South Florida is in the crosshairs.
So you’re going to go off of one meteorologists own predictions!? Sounds kind of risky to me!
Shell Mound has a good point! We saw this last year with TD #3 and several other systems leading up to Dorian which all came close but recurved East of Florida.
Florida is always under the gun. As are many other locations. I give absolutely zero credence to any of these analogs. The 2020 atmosphere doesn't care about 1908, etc. It is CLIMO for Atlantic Basin storms to re-curve away from United States East Coast. This is no revelation, come on.
Last edited by toad strangler on Sun May 10, 2020 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
My Weather Station
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 46 guests