2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

The only thing I am saying is "GFS is crazy".

yeah that looks like an October set up

[N2FSU]

6z GFS


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[GCANE]

Starting to take this seriously

[Ivanhater]

Very active pattern so far and it's still May

[GCANE]

If the middle-level vorts survive the cross-over, conditions in the west Carib look conducive for development including low & mid-level moisture and 355K PV.
IMHO, it appears there may be enough of a shear gradient to keep convection firing as it enters the GOM.

[Ubuntwo]

There is a lot going on in the 12z GFS:

The disturbance in the Gulf quickly spins up into a TD (h18)

A short-lived TS in the western Caribbean, crashes into the Yucatan (h180)

A strong TS in the Caribbean, first stalls, then turns north and weakens after nearly making landfall on Jamaica - reforms in the open Atlantic (h192)

A TS that forms off the Cuban coast, moves over the Bahamas, possibly becomes subtropical? (h312)

That could be three more named storms by the second week of June. The fact that the GFS is spitting out cyclones like this is indicative of a favorable base state throughout the western basin.

[cycloneye]

I said it yesterday and today mantain it: GFS is crazy.

[Ivanhater]

Gfs doesn't know what to do with the gyre, but odds of something coming is getting stronger. Very active pattern before hurricane season has started.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a lot of convective feedback issues on the GFS. Does anybody know if it not getting the usual data it gets due to COVID-19?

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like a lot of convective feedback issues on the GFS. Does anybody know if it not getting the usual data it gets due to COVID-19?

Maybe the gfs is sick

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a lot of convective feedback issues on the GFS. Does anybody know if it not getting the usual data it gets due to COVID-19?

I don't think so, this has been going on for a few days. The gyre is happening. I think the northern cusp of it is what the models are struggling with.

[gatorcane]

Noticeable uptick with the GFS ensembles with some strong members but still long-range:

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has no crossover.

[stormlover2013]

Lol gfs is so bad long range

[gatorcane]

GEPS long-range:

[floridasun78]

i think we need see what show that area by models by next weekend gfs could be wrong or right too early to say but do look like tropical dont want wait untill july or aug to get active

[SFLcane]

Noticeable uptick with the GFS ensembles with some strong members but still long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/FzXy8QBG/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-39.png

Highly skeptical of that solution at the moment. Given the EPS is almost all EPAC or far SW Gomex. Maybe one member out of 50 similar to GEFS.

[NDG]

The reason why the latest Euro likes possible development over the EPAC and a track westward south of MX is because it builds a stronger ridging across the south central US into eastern MX while the GFS ensemble mean has the ridging further north across the Great Lakes.
The Euro had the trough across TX and GOM much weaker 7-10 days ago.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS insists this crosses over and a CAG / broad low develops over the NW Caribbean lifting slowly north:

[Ivanhater]

Typical CAG low, keep an eye on the northern flank..