ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
.92L INVEST 200528 1800 24.0N 54.0W ATL 25 1015
Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum on this area
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120890&p=2803503#p2803503
Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum on this area
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120890&p=2803503#p2803503
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- AnnularCane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Didn't expect this to be an invest before the one in the EPAC.
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- Nancy Smar
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
ABNT20 KNHC 282325
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure over the central Atlantic.
A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are
producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it
could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and
Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday,
or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure over the central Atlantic.
A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are
producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it
could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and
Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday,
or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
If we get Cristobal pre season too, I think it’s fairly likely we can exhaust the list
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
BadLarry95 wrote:If we get Cristobal pre season too, I think it’s fairly likely we can exhaust the list
It’s possible we could get to Dolly by mid-June, but between that and the end of August, we could very well see a quiet phase with maybe 2 or 3 total storms at most. I doubt we’ll exhaust the list, but we could get close.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
00z Best Track:
Location: 25.4°N 53.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1015 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1017 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1015 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1017 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
aspen wrote:BadLarry95 wrote:If we get Cristobal pre season too, I think it’s fairly likely we can exhaust the list
It’s possible we could get to Dolly by mid-June, but between that and the end of August, we could very well see a quiet phase with maybe 2 or 3 total storms at most. I doubt we’ll exhaust the list, but we could get close.
Suppose the next two model storms develop (92L and the gyre), all we'd need is a copy of last year's pace and that'd give us Alpha in November. Not saying it'll happen but a lot more within reach than it might seem.
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- HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
I don't think it's gonna happen. Still looks messy this morning has a long way to go and not a lot of time to do it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Now up to 50%. Surprised at this considering it looks like crap this morning.
A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Now up to 50%. Surprised at this considering it looks like crap this morning.A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Surprised as well looks like garbage lol. Looks like there might be an elongated LLC there but doesn't appear to be getting its act together at all.
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Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Now up to 50%. Surprised at this considering it looks like crap this morning.A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Probably got bumped up because the Euro still shows development, as well as the CMC to a lesser extent.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
aspen wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Now up to 50%. Surprised at this considering it looks like crap this morning.A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Probably got bumped up because the Euro still shows development, as well as the CMC to a lesser extent.
It has about 36-48hrs. to develop into something. Of course it’ll be yet another short-lived weak system if it gets named.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
It is super close. once the upper low drops a little farther sw convection should build over the LLC there and it wont take long after that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
3rd storm already?
2005 again?
I hope not.
Not sure if you guys remember that year. Was wild...we had Dennis as a Cat 3 in july
2005 again?
I hope not.
Not sure if you guys remember that year. Was wild...we had Dennis as a Cat 3 in july
Last edited by SEASON_CANCELED on Fri May 29, 2020 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
92L's LLC is quickly gaining definition on visible satellite, ASCAT shows the presence of a broad, elongated circulation that may be open.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
The Circ is almost into the divergent zone.. almost time to pop...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Can someone please post the latest satellite presentation of Invest 92L?
Anyways the latest 12z Euro is less enthusiastic with development, unless it surprises us I think 50/50 is all we’ll get from this as it has till Sunday to do anything.
Anyways the latest 12z Euro is less enthusiastic with development, unless it surprises us I think 50/50 is all we’ll get from this as it has till Sunday to do anything.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Can someone please post the latest satellite presentation of Invest 92L?
Anyways the latest 12z Euro is less enthusiastic with development, unless it surprises us I think 50/50 is all we’ll get from this as it has till Sunday to do anything.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
To my untrained eye, it looks like the circulation is moving toward a larger area of deep connection. If they link up, the storm could spin up quickly.
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