ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

.92L INVEST 200528 1800 24.0N 54.0W ATL 25 1015

Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum on this area

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120890&p=2803503#p2803503

[AnnularCane]

Didn't expect this to be an invest before the one in the EPAC.

[Nancy Smar]

ABNT20 KNHC 282325
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure over the central Atlantic.

A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are
producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it
could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and
Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday,
or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[BadLarry95]

If we get Cristobal pre season too, I think it’s fairly likely we can exhaust the list

[aspen]

If we get Cristobal pre season too, I think it’s fairly likely we can exhaust the list

It’s possible we could get to Dolly by mid-June, but between that and the end of August, we could very well see a quiet phase with maybe 2 or 3 total storms at most. I doubt we’ll exhaust the list, but we could get close.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 25.4°N 53.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1015 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1017 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[Hammy]

If we get Cristobal pre season too, I think it’s fairly likely we can exhaust the list

It’s possible we could get to Dolly by mid-June, but between that and the end of August, we could very well see a quiet phase with maybe 2 or 3 total storms at most. I doubt we’ll exhaust the list, but we could get close.

Suppose the next two model storms develop (92L and the gyre), all we'd need is a copy of last year's pace and that'd give us Alpha in November. Not saying it'll happen but a lot more within reach than it might seem.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I don't think it's gonna happen. Still looks messy this morning has a long way to go and not a lot of time to do it.

[TheStormExpert]

Now up to 50%. Surprised at this considering it looks like crap this morning.

A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Now up to 50%. Surprised at this considering it looks like crap this morning.

A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Surprised as well looks like garbage lol. Looks like there might be an elongated LLC there but doesn't appear to be getting its act together at all.

[aspen]

Now up to 50%. Surprised at this considering it looks like crap this morning.

A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Probably got bumped up because the Euro still shows development, as well as the CMC to a lesser extent.

[TheStormExpert]

Now up to 50%. Surprised at this considering it looks like crap this morning.

A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Probably got bumped up because the Euro still shows development, as well as the CMC to a lesser extent.

It has about 36-48hrs. to develop into something. Of course it’ll be yet another short-lived weak system if it gets named.

[Aric Dunn]

It is super close. once the upper low drops a little farther sw convection should build over the LLC there and it wont take long after that.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

3rd storm already?


2005 again?

I hope not.

Not sure if you guys remember that year. Was wild...we had Dennis as a Cat 3 in july

[Ubuntwo]

92L's LLC is quickly gaining definition on visible satellite, ASCAT shows the presence of a broad, elongated circulation that may be open.

[Aric Dunn]

The Circ is almost into the divergent zone.. almost time to pop...

[TheStormExpert]

Can someone please post the latest satellite presentation of Invest 92L?

Anyways the latest 12z Euro is less enthusiastic with development, unless it surprises us I think 50/50 is all we’ll get from this as it has till Sunday to do anything.

[Sciencerocks]

Can someone please post the latest satellite presentation of Invest 92L?

Anyways the latest 12z Euro is less enthusiastic with development, unless it surprises us I think 50/50 is all we’ll get from this as it has till Sunday to do anything.

[Hurricanehink]

To my untrained eye, it looks like the circulation is moving toward a larger area of deep connection. If they link up, the storm could spin up quickly.