ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#361 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:27 am

Aric Dunn wrote:


Yeppers.. what I mentioned before.. it has already begun.


yep, you were correct. Thus the LLC is hugged up to the western edge of the MLC, so perhaps slightly N.E/S.W. tilted. Inflow should help fix this in fairly short order. 2-3 mb drop and it'll be there.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#362 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:28 am

Here ya'll go.
In the clear

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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#363 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:30 am

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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#364 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:33 am

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032020
A. 02/14:45:00Z
B. 19.33 deg N 092.66 deg W
C. 925 mb 726 m
D. EXTRAP 1005 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 30 kt
I. 050 deg 107 nm 14:13:00Z
J. 107 deg 40 kt
K. 050 deg 119 nm 14:10:00Z
L. 31 kt
M. 226 deg 67 nm 15:08:30Z
N. 293 deg 44 kt
O. 225 deg 54 nm 15:04:00Z
P. 21 C / 759 m
Q. 22 C / 759 m
R. 21 C / NA
S. 1345 / 09
T. 0.02 / 5.5 nm
U. AF303 0103A CYCLONE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 44 KT 225 / 54 NM 15:04:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#365 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:36 am

1005mb
1C Core measured at 925mb
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#366 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:37 am

Some decent outflow showing up on IR in the NW quad
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#367 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:42 am

I think they will find 45-50mph surface winds when the NW quadrant is sampled. Anyone else thinking this storm good get really large for a June storm, definitely not -removed- just looking at the TPC and forecast, hopefully we’ll get some dry air entrained in as it moves into the gulf.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#368 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:44 am

Some SMFR suspect by the red dots.

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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#369 Postby typhoonty » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:45 am

Recon found FL winds of 45-50 kt, which IMO alleviates potential shoaling concerns with SFMR. An upgrade should come by 2PM. Whether it's 35-40 kts will be determined by sampling of the western semicircle and subsequent passes
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#370 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:45 am

Once again the NHC going conservative at 15z blew up in their faces. With 44 knot FL, this is for sure nameable now.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#371 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:49 am

Convection continues to deepen and wrap around circ is tightening. and being pulled slightly to east/NE

low shear warm water = this will likely be stronger than most of the models have been showing..

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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#372 Postby psyclone » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:51 am

Looks more and more like a swamp maker is headed for Louisiana most likely. Big rains should leave a mark well away from the system. The Yucatan has been getting really heavy rain for awhile now. There must be some impressive totals down there.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#373 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:58 am

psyclone wrote:Looks more and more like a swamp maker is headed for Louisiana most likely. Big rains should leave a mark well away from the system. The Yucatan has been getting really heavy rain for awhile now. There must be some impressive totals down there.



Still a long long way to go. Many variables still in play. I do agree, this will be a rainmaker for someone. I still think, and this is my opinion, all interests in the Gulf should watch this. We still have aways to go.....be patient..
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#374 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:58 am

down 1 MB that pass it looks like.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#375 Postby Do_For_Love » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:04 am

Intensity wise, if this does track up through the gulf, is there shear or dry air or something that can stop our soon to be "C" storm from becoming a decent hurricane? I'm sure that's not an easy question to answer, but, just wondering...
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#376 Postby Buck » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:11 am

Do_For_Love wrote:Intensity wise, if this does track up through the gulf, is there shear or dry air or something that can stop our soon to be "C" storm from becoming a decent hurricane? I'm sure that's not an easy question to answer, but, just wondering...


I think there will be a lot of conjecture on this... but I think it's just too early to say. Models show gradual strengthening, but I think NHC is probably starting off a little conservative (but near model consensus). But at the end of the day, this is going to be in the gulf for a good while and we just don't know yet.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#377 Postby Do_For_Love » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:16 am

Thanks, I appreciate that reasoned answer. I'm sure that's true with all the variables and time involved and all. I don't mean to start a wild speculation train, I'm just a bit anxious and hoping we can avoid a damaging hurricane impact right now.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#378 Postby JayTX » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:16 am

Tireman4 wrote:
psyclone wrote:Looks more and more like a swamp maker is headed for Louisiana most likely. Big rains should leave a mark well away from the system. The Yucatan has been getting really heavy rain for awhile now. There must be some impressive totals down there.



Still a long long way to go. Many variables still in play. I do agree, this will be a rainmaker for someone. I still think, and this is my opinion, all interests in the Gulf should watch this. We still have aways to go.....be patient..


Seems the last Euro run is showing it taking 24 hrs+ possibly before moving inland to help out the coastal counties/parishes. Any chance of this stalling?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#379 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:18 am

Everything is rotating now on visible satellite.
That and the recon pressure drop indicates its ramping up quickly.
I don't think it'll hang out in the BoC as long as initially thought.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#380 Postby TheAustinMan » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:20 am

Radar, satellite, and reconnaissance overlay for TD3:

1.1 MB. Source: Reconnaissance data from Tropical Atlantic, satellite data from SSEC RealEarth, radar data from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
Image
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