ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1267837949468643328

Yeppers.. what I mentioned before.. it has already begun.

yep, you were correct. Thus the LLC is hugged up to the western edge of the MLC, so perhaps slightly N.E/S.W. tilted. Inflow should help fix this in fairly short order. 2-3 mb drop and it'll be there.

[GCANE]

Here ya'll go.
In the clear

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1267839918635712513

[cycloneye]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032020
A. 02/14:45:00Z
B. 19.33 deg N 092.66 deg W
C. 925 mb 726 m
D. EXTRAP 1005 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 30 kt
I. 050 deg 107 nm 14:13:00Z
J. 107 deg 40 kt
K. 050 deg 119 nm 14:10:00Z
L. 31 kt
M. 226 deg 67 nm 15:08:30Z
N. 293 deg 44 kt
O. 225 deg 54 nm 15:04:00Z
P. 21 C / 759 m
Q. 22 C / 759 m
R. 21 C / NA
S. 1345 / 09
T. 0.02 / 5.5 nm
U. AF303 0103A CYCLONE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 44 KT 225 / 54 NM 15:04:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

[GCANE]

1005mb
1C Core measured at 925mb

[GCANE]

Some decent outflow showing up on IR in the NW quad

[tailgater]

I think they will find 45-50mph surface winds when the NW quadrant is sampled. Anyone else thinking this storm good get really large for a June storm, definitely not -removed- just looking at the TPC and forecast, hopefully we’ll get some dry air entrained in as it moves into the gulf.

[cycloneye]

Some SMFR suspect by the red dots.

[typhoonty]

Recon found FL winds of 45-50 kt, which IMO alleviates potential shoaling concerns with SFMR. An upgrade should come by 2PM. Whether it's 35-40 kts will be determined by sampling of the western semicircle and subsequent passes

[Yellow Evan]

Once again the NHC going conservative at 15z blew up in their faces. With 44 knot FL, this is for sure nameable now.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection continues to deepen and wrap around circ is tightening. and being pulled slightly to east/NE

low shear warm water = this will likely be stronger than most of the models have been showing..

[psyclone]

Looks more and more like a swamp maker is headed for Louisiana most likely. Big rains should leave a mark well away from the system. The Yucatan has been getting really heavy rain for awhile now. There must be some impressive totals down there.

[Tireman4]

Looks more and more like a swamp maker is headed for Louisiana most likely. Big rains should leave a mark well away from the system. The Yucatan has been getting really heavy rain for awhile now. There must be some impressive totals down there.

Still a long long way to go. Many variables still in play. I do agree, this will be a rainmaker for someone. I still think, and this is my opinion, all interests in the Gulf should watch this. We still have aways to go.....be patient..

[Aric Dunn]

down 1 MB that pass it looks like.

[Do_For_Love]

Intensity wise, if this does track up through the gulf, is there shear or dry air or something that can stop our soon to be "C" storm from becoming a decent hurricane? I'm sure that's not an easy question to answer, but, just wondering...

[Buck]

Intensity wise, if this does track up through the gulf, is there shear or dry air or something that can stop our soon to be "C" storm from becoming a decent hurricane? I'm sure that's not an easy question to answer, but, just wondering...

I think there will be a lot of conjecture on this... but I think it's just too early to say. Models show gradual strengthening, but I think NHC is probably starting off a little conservative (but near model consensus). But at the end of the day, this is going to be in the gulf for a good while and we just don't know yet.

[Do_For_Love]

Thanks, I appreciate that reasoned answer. I'm sure that's true with all the variables and time involved and all. I don't mean to start a wild speculation train, I'm just a bit anxious and hoping we can avoid a damaging hurricane impact right now.

[JayTX]

Looks more and more like a swamp maker is headed for Louisiana most likely. Big rains should leave a mark well away from the system. The Yucatan has been getting really heavy rain for awhile now. There must be some impressive totals down there.

Still a long long way to go. Many variables still in play. I do agree, this will be a rainmaker for someone. I still think, and this is my opinion, all interests in the Gulf should watch this. We still have aways to go.....be patient..

Seems the last Euro run is showing it taking 24 hrs+ possibly before moving inland to help out the coastal counties/parishes. Any chance of this stalling?

[GCANE]

Everything is rotating now on visible satellite.
That and the recon pressure drop indicates its ramping up quickly.
I don't think it'll hang out in the BoC as long as initially thought.

[TheAustinMan]

Radar, satellite, and reconnaissance overlay for TD3:

1.1 MB. Source: Reconnaissance data from Tropical Atlantic, satellite data from SSEC RealEarth, radar data from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional